Argentina: Economic activity accelerates in October

In October, the monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) recorded another sharp expansion. Growth in economic activity accelerated from September’s 3.2% year-on-year increase to 5.2% in October. October’s print marks the eighth consecutive month of growth and the strongest expansion since May 2013.

The figure reflects increases in all but one component of the index. Construction output expanded at the fastest pace, with an 18.8% year-on-year increase. It was followed by an 8.4% rise in financial intermediation and a 6.8% annual increase in wholesale and retail trade. Electricity, gas, and steam was the only subcomponent that contracted in October.

A seasonally-adjusted month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity swung from a 0.3% contraction in September to a 0.2% rise in October. Lastly, economic activity in the 12 months up to October jumped to 2.2% on average, up from 1.4% in the 12 months up to September.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect economic growth of 2.7% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, panelists see the economy expanding 2.9%.