Argentina Economic Activity June 2016

Argentina

Argentina: Drop in economic activity worsens in June

August 24, 2016

In June, the monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) declined 4.3% year-on-year, which was below the 2.1% fall recorded in May and represented the steepest contraction since August 2014. The print undershot the 1.1% drop that market analysts had expected.

Sequential data corroborate that the economy remains in a serious downturn. A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity declined 0.3% in seasonally-adjusted terms in June, which followed May’s 0.7% decline.

On average, in the 12 months up to June, economic activity increased 0.8%, which was below May’s 1.6% and marked the weakest growth rate in 10 months.

The statistical bureau relaunched the economic activity indicator series in August following an eight-month hiatus as statistical data came under heavy criticism under the previous administration.

FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to contract 1.2% this year, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panelists expect the economy to accelerate significantly and expand 3.0%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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Argentina Economic Activity June 2016 0

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth rate of monthly economic activity in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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