Argentina Economic Activity November 2016

Argentina

Argentina: Drop in economic activity softens in November

January 26, 2017

In November, the monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) dropped 1.4% year-on-year, which was an improvement compared to October’s 4.4% decline. The print was above the 2.2% drop that markets had expected and represented the smallest decline since March 2016.

Sequential data corroborate the improvement. A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity rose 1.4% in seasonally-adjusted terms in November (October: +0.5% month-on-month), which marked the strongest result since February 2015.

On average, in the 12 months up to November, economic activity decreased 2.0%, which was below October’s 1.6% decline and marked the worst result since March 2015.

Following an expected 2.4% contraction in 2016, our analysts project the economy to rebound and expand 3.0% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2018, panelists expect the economy to expand 3.1%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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Argentina Economic Activity November 2016

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth rate of monthly economic activity in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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