Argentina Economic Activity December 2016

Argentina

Argentina: Drop in economic activity moderates in December

February 27, 2017

In December, the monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) dropped 0.1% year-on-year, which was an improvement compared to November’s 1.4% decline. The print was above the 0.6% drop that markets had expected and represented the smallest decline since March 2016.

Sequential data corroborate the improvement. A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity rose 1.6% in seasonally-adjusted terms in December (November: +1.2% month-on-month), which marked the strongest result since February 2015.

On average, economic activity decreased 2.2% in 2016, contrasting 2015’s 2.6% increase and marking the worst 12-month rolling average since March 2015.

Our analysts project the economy to rebound and expand 3.0% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2018, panelists expect the economy to expand 3.1%.


Author:, Economist

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