Argentina Economic Activity


Argentina: Drop in economic activity eases in April

June 30, 2014

In April, economic activity fell 0.5% over the same month last year, which followed the 0.9% decrease recorded in March. The reading is based on a new calculation methodology—adopted by the national statistical institute in March in response to a request from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—that shifts the base year of calculation from 1993 to 2004. On a monthly basis, economic activity rebounded to a 0.6% expansion in seasonally-adjusted terms from the 0.7% contraction recorded in the previous month.

New figures bring the official estimates closer to the independent estimates that local private analysts produce, which have traditionally pointed to lower growth than official sources. That said, a discrepancy between official and non-official figures still exists.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect official GDP to decline 0.1% this year, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2015, participants expect official GDP to grow 1.2%. Additionally, LatinFocus panelists expect non-official GDP to experience a 1.5% contraction in 2014 and to expand a meager 0.7% in 2015.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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