Argentina Economic Activity


Argentina: Decline in economic activity continues to ease in May

July 25, 2014

In May, economic activity fell 0.2% over the same month last year, which followed the revised 0.7% decrease recorded in April (previously reported: -0.5% year-on-year) and marked the highest print in three months. The reading is based on a new calculation methodology—adopted by the national statistical institute in March in response to a request from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—that shifts the base year of calculation from 1993 to 2004. On a monthly basis, economic activity expanded 0.5% in seasonally-adjusted terms in May, which marked a slight improvement over the 0.4% increase tallied in the previous month.

New figures bring the official estimates closer to the independent estimates that local private analysts produce, which have traditionally pointed to lower growth than official sources. That said, a discrepancy between official and non-official figures still exists.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect official GDP to decline 0.1% this year, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2015, participants expect official GDP to grow 1.2%. Additionally, LatinFocus panelists expect non-official GDP to contract 1.5% in 2014 and to expand a meager 0.7% in 2015.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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