Angola: Economy in 2015 grew at slowest pace since 2009 according to revised data
August 22, 2016
The Angolan economy decelerated sharply in 2015, according to the revised 2016 budget approved by the National Assembly in mid-August. GDP growth slowed from 4.8% in 2014 to a revised 3.0% in 2015 (previously reported: +4.0% year-on-year). This marks the slowest expansion since 2009 and reflects the economic woes the oil-dependent country is facing.
The slowdown in 2015 was driven by a contraction in manufacturing and a sharp deceleration in six of the nine sectors of the economy. Manufacturing swung from an 8.1% expansion in 2014 to a 2.1% contraction in 2015. Construction activity slowed from 8.0% last year to 3.5% this year and the energy sector lost significant momentum (2014: +17.3%; 2015: +2.5%).
Oil and diamond extraction were the only two sectors in which the pace of expansion picked up. The all-important oil sector swung from a 2.6% contraction in 2014 to a 6.3% expansion in 2015. Diamond extraction accelerated from 1.0% in 2014 to 2.2% in 2015.
The revised 2016 budget lowered the government’s forecast of the average Cabinda oil price from USD 45.0 per barrel to USD 40.9. Oil earnings have dropped significantly this year and the government expects fiscal revenues to decline sharply as a result. This has prompted the government to lower its growth forecast for this year to 1.1%, down from 3.3% in the original 2016 budget.