Angola Commodities August 2016

Angola

Angola: Angola Cabinda oil recovers some lost ground in August

September 14, 2016

In August, the average price of Angola’s Cabinda oil rose 2.9% over the previous month, reaching USD 45.4 per barrel. August’s result contrasted the 6.3% drop observed in July and renewed the upward trend seen in prices for months, which had been halted by July’s result. The average oil price was down just 0.1% from the same month last year, an outstanding improvement over the 20.5% decline seen in July.

Angolan oil prices found solid footing in August and were able to partially recover the ground lost in July. Prices were supported by signs of potential curbing on international oil output, while dwindling stocks in the U.S. added to the recovery in prices. Nonetheless, a turnaround in global oil production and resilient stocks towards the end of the month caused the rally to falter, with Angolan oil prices just below the USD 50.0-per-barrel threshold, where prices have not been since October 2015.

More recently, on 14 September, the price of Angola’s Cabinda oil rose to USD 44.84 per barrel, which was 0.2% higher than on the same day in August and was 1.1% higher than on the same day of the previous year. On a year-to-date basis, Cabinda oil prices have gained 327.9%. Oil prices remain dispirited in September amid uncertainty surrounding meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC members in Algeria that begins on 16 September. In addition, the International Energy Agency’s recent announcement that it expects the global oil glut to last longer than previously expected could further dampen sentiment and trigger a price slump.

In August, Angola’s oil production reached 1.82 million barrels per day (mbpd), which was a notch above the 1.81 mbpd print recorded in July.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect production to reach 1.84 mbpd this year. In 2017, the panel sees crude output inching up to 1.94 mbpd.


Author: Jean-Philippe Pourcelot, Economist

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Angola Commodity August 2016

Note: Price of the OPEC oil basket in USD per barrel.
Source: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).


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