Angola Commodities September 2016


Angola: Angola Cabinda oil reaches over one-year high in September

October 17, 2016

In September, the average price of Angola’s Cabinda oil rose 1.0% over the previous month, reaching USD 45.9 per barrel. On a year-on-year basis, the average oil price was just 0.5% lower compared to the same month of the previous year. In September, Angola’s oil production dropped from 1.82 million barrels per day (mbpd) to 1.77 mbpd.

More recently, on 14 October, the price of Angola’s Cabinda oil rose to USD 48.11 per barrel, which was 7.3% higher than on the same day in September and was 2.6% higher than on the same day of the previous year. On a year-to-date basis, Cabinda oil prices have gained 37.3%.

Angolan oil prices in September were supported by the agreement reached by OPEC members to cut output for the first time since 2008. Oil prices in October received further impetus when Russia, a non-OPEC member, pledged to cut output along with OPEC countries. The final agreement is to be ratified in a formal meeting in November between OPEC and non-OPEC members where participating countries will define aspects such as country-specific quotas and enforcement mechanisms to cut production. Analysts, however, are skeptical that the agreement will be capable of rebalancing the oversupplied oil market as demand remains muted. It also remains to be seen whether oil-producing countries will be capable of overcoming their differences to reach an agreement in November.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect production to reach 1.80 mbpd this year. In 2017, the panel sees crude output inching up to 1.84 mbpd.

Author: Jean-Philippe Pourcelot, Economist

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Angola Commodity October 2016 0

Note: Price of the OPEC oil basket in USD per barrel.
Source: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

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