Bolivia Economic Forecast

Bolivia Economic Outlook

May 19, 2020

The Covid-19 outbreak, strict measures imposed to contain its spread and a marked deterioration in the country’s terms of trade are set to hit the economy hard in the first half of the year, with spillovers also expected in the second. In February, economic activity had already slowed markedly amid a heavy contraction of the hydrocarbons sector. The challenging external environment, which has seen a collapse in oil prices as well as reduced demand for natural gas also led to a plunge in merchandise exports in March. Moreover, remittances plummeted in the first quarter, which, coupled with the national quarantine extended until 10 May, is poised to hammer activity. Meanwhile, on 17 April the IMF approved USD 327 million in emergency financing while the World Bank unlocked USD 170 million on 8 May to help authorities tackle the health crisis. On the political front, Parliament approved a law in late April that called for the re-run of the controversial October election to be held by 2 August.

Bolivia Economic Growth

The economy is expected to contract for the first time in over three decades this year, as the coronavirus pandemic severs export demand, weighs on commodity prices and pummels domestic activity. Increased pressure to fiscal accounts and the resurgence of political and social turmoil ahead of the election in the summer pose additional risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to shrink 3.1% in 2020, which is down 1.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and to grow 3.9% in 2021.

Bolivia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.911.011.211.411.6
GDP per capita (USD)3,0373,0843,3453,5403,541
GDP (USD bn)33.134.137.540.340.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.94.34.24.22.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.83.1-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.03.411.83.2-3.5
Unemployment Rate4.64.44.54.34.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-6.7-7.8-8.1-7.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)40.946.551.353.958.0
Money (annual variation in %)16.3-3.98.25.4-7.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.04.02.71.51.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.13.62.82.31.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.077.958.118.048.40
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.906.936.916.916.91
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.906.916.916.916.91
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.8-5.6-4.9-4.5-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.9-1.9-1.8-1.8-1.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.4-0.9-0.5-0.5-0.2
Exports (USD billion)8.77.08.18.98.8
Imports (USD billion)9.17.98.79.49.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-32.2-19.015.79.4-0.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-8.3-12.69.57.8-3.2
International Reserves (USD)11.68.58.57.24.4
External Debt (% of GDP)29.932.334.633.0-  

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Bolivia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate6.91-0.14 %Jan 01

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