Precious Metals: Precious Metals Price Outlook
February 14, 2018
Prices expand at fastest pace in over a year in January
A combination of a weak U.S. dollar, strong global growth and supply disruptions led precious metals to rise 5.4% on a monthly basis in January (December: -1.1% mom), marking the strongest increase since July 2016. The gain was broad-based, as prices for all four commodities rose compared to the previous month.
Gold prices increased on the back of a soft U.S. dollar and strong global growth, which translated into higher demand for jewelry and bullion. Strong industrial demand shored up prices for silver. Palladium prices continue to be propelled by resilient car sales in China and healthy demand for gasoline-powered vehicles. Platinum prices also increased this month as the precious metal has been trading at a discount compared to palladium since Q4, becoming more attractive to automakers. Moreover, platinum is also used for jewelry and some mines closed in South Africa.
Platinum prices should expand strongly in this year on the back of constrained supply and stronger demand from the automotive industry. The price of gold will largely depend on geopolitical developments and the pace of monetary policy normalization in the United States. Analysts polled for this month’s survey see precious metal prices for Q4 2018 rising 1.3% from the same quarter in 2017. The panel sees an acceleration in 2019, with precious metal prices increasing 3.9% year-on-year in Q4 2019.
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