Commodities Economic Outlook January 2018


Commodities: Commodities

January 17, 2018

Commodity prices broadly stable in December

Although prices for energy commodities continued to climb in December due to a tight oil market, overall commodity prices declined slightly from the previous month on the back of lower prices for agriculture, precious metals and base metals. Commodity prices fell an aggregated 0.2% month-on-month in December (November: +1.1% month-on-month). While small, December’s print represented the first month-on-month decrease in six months. 

In this month’s survey, analysts polled by FocusEconomics expect commodity prices to fall 0.5% in Q4 2018 from the same period in 2017, which would contrast the astonishing 15.4% year-on-year expansion registered in Q4 2017.

Further down the road, forecasters predict that strong price increases, primarily for base and precious metals, will lead the recovery in commodity prices. The Consensus view among commodities experts is that commodity prices will increase 5.4% in annual terms in Q4 2019.

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