Commodities Economic Outlook February 2018

Commodities: Commodity prices continue to rally in January on strong global growth and weak U.S. dollar

February 14, 2018

 


Last year’s bullish momentum in most commodity markets appears to have extended into 2018, led by a weak U.S. dollar, hopes that global growth will remain buoyant this year and constraints in some upstream sectors in China. Commodity prices rose an aggregated 4.8% month-on-month in January (December: -0.2% month-on-month), the fastest expansion in five months. The energy sector was the main driver of January’s result due to a tight global oil market, followed by precious and base metals. While they increased, agriculture prices recorded only a small gain in the month.


Despite January’s surge in commodity prices, fears about a potential price correction in some key commodities started to emerge in early February. Stock markets declined sharply in the first week of the month, sparking concerns about the actual strength of the U.S. economy. Moreover, high oil inventories in the United States suggest that shale producers are pumping oil at record levels, threatening to flood global oil markets and send prices down.


In this month’s survey, analysts polled by FocusEconomics expect commodity prices to rise 1.6% in Q4 2018 from the same period in 2017, which would mark a sharp deceleration over the astounding 15.4% year-on-year expansion registered in Q4 2017.


Further down the road, analysts predict that base and precious metals, as well as agriculture products, will take the lead among commodities in terms of price increases. The Consensus view among commodities experts is that commodity prices will increase 3.1% in annual terms in Q4 2019.


For report pricing and subscription information, contact us.

Sample Report

Looking for forecasts related to in Commodities? Download a sample report now.

Download




Commodities Economic News

  • Commodities: Economic Outlook Commodities September 2018

    September 11, 2018

    Escalating trade tensions and cooling growth in China dampen global commodity prices Global commodity prices recorded the third consecutive drop in August, highlighting the vulnerability of the global economy.

    Read more

  • Commodities: Economic Outlook Commodities August 2018

    August 12, 2018

    Trade tensions and financial tightening weigh on global commodity prices Global commodity prices tumbled 7.3% over the previous month in July, following June’s 0.1% drop.

    Read more

  • Commodities: Economic Outlook Commodities July 2018

    July 11, 2018

    Growing geopolitical tensions weigh on global commodity prices Global commodity prices declined for the first time in three months in June.

    Read more

  • Commodities: Economic Outlook Commodities June 2018

    June 11, 2018

    Rally in commodity prices threatened by renewed geopolitical tensions In May, global commodity prices increased for the second consecutive month, mostly reflecting a rise in oil prices and concerns about supply shortages for some agricultural products.

    Read more

  • Commodities: Economic Outlook Commodities May 2018

    May 16, 2018

    Rally in oil prices and rising geopolitical threats push up commodity prices In April, commodity prices recovered some of the ground lost in the previous month, when prices for a wide range of commodities, especially base metals, plunged following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on aluminium and steel imports, as well as fears of an all-out trade war between China and the United States.

    Read more

More news

Search form