Energy Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Energy Commodities Price Outlook

Energy prices recover somewhat in July on supply fears; outlook remains highly uncertain

Energy prices edged up 2.0% on a monthly basis in July, rebounding from June’s 10.3% month-on-month slump.

An upturn in prices for WTI oil led the overall increase in energy prices. In early July, the extension of OPEC+ production cuts supported global oil prices, while raised geopolitical uncertainty in the Persian Gulf added further upside pressure. Furthermore, falling oil inventories in the U.S. spurred WTI prices in late July, although Brent oil prices remained largely unchanged. A rebound in prices for thermal coal, gasoline and gasoil further propped up energy prices in recent weeks.

Our panelists see energy prices dropping 1.6% in Q4 2019 compared to the same period in 2018 (previously projected: -1.9% year-on-year). The weakening will be led by considerably lower prices for natural gas due to a well-supplied market, as well as a continuous shift to renewables which will depress prices for both coking and thermal coal. Meanwhile, although oil prices are forecast to tick up marginally, escalating trade tensions in early August underline mounting downside risks. Our panelists see the downturn in prices sharpening next year and estimate energy prices will slump 3.4% annually in Q4 2020.

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Energy Commodities Historical Price Data

2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  
Brent Crude Oil108.69  98.9  52.42  43.83  54.26  
WTI Crude Oil97.97  93.02  48.68  43.28  50.84  
Gasoline2.92  2.66  1.94  1.44  1.72  
Natural Gas3.76  4.26  2.63  2.55  3.02  
Thermal Coal85.38  70.95  58.88  65.69  88.19  
Coking Coal 147.71  114.66  88.38  142.7  188.92  
Uranium38.66  33.44  36.81  26.45  22.06  
Gasoil918.88  837.79  488.16  390.61  482.81  

Note:
Brent Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
WTI Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
Gasoline prices in USD per gallon (gal).
Natural Gas prices in USD per Million of British Thermal Units (MMBtu).
Thermal Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coking Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Uranium prices in USD per pound (lb).
Gasoil prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities

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