Central America and Caribbean Economic Outlook
Regional economies should grow at a softer clip this year from last as lower U.S. growth hits private spending and investment. However, a rebound in exports in several countries, resilient tourist inflows, and lower inflation and interest rates will aid momentum. Downside risks include political instability, extreme weather and a weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market.
Central America and Caribbean Inflation
Regional inflation fell to 2.2% in January (December: 2.4%) but likely remained elevated in February–March, according to available data. Inflation should average lower in 2024 than in 2023 on a high base effect and the delayed impact of previous monetary policy tightening. Sharper-than-projected currency depreciation and shocks to food and energy prices are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Central America and Caribbean from 2010 to 2020.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per capita (USD) | 5,648 | 5,217 | 5,769 | 6,410 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.2 | -7.3 | 7.6 | 4.7 | - |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 3.2 | - | - | - | - |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 0.8 | - | - | - | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.7 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 7.2 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.1 | -7.5 | -3.8 | -2.2 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 4.3 |
| CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) | 3.57 | 2.06 | 2.46 | 6.35 | 5.64 |
| Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) | 110 | 115 | 146 | 134 | 139 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.4 | 0.2 | - | - | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 77.5 | 68.5 | 91.6 | 110.3 | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 121.0 | 100.2 | 137.1 | - | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 61.6 | 74.2 | 80.6 | 79.5 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 66.0 | 76.5 | - | - | - |