FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
September 7, 2018
The Turkish proverb “Zararın neresinden dönülse kârdır” can be loosely translated as “reducing losses at any point is always profitable ”. Simply put, it means that if one is on the wrong track, then the best course of action is to perform a U-turn, however painful or chastening it may be in the short run.
Economists and investors who have followed the tumultuous developments in Turkey in recent weeks must surely be hoping for the government and Central Bank to take the message to heart. Over the last month the lira has collapsed, driven by geopolitical tension with the U.S. and loose fiscal and monetary policy. This has led input costs to rocket and is saddling corporates with an ever heftier external debt burden.
August 29, 2018
The pounding of the trade war drums is growing ever more deafening, with the U.S. and China currently engaged in an escalating, tit-for-tat tariff battle. The latest salvo came on 23 August when a fresh raft of tariffs came into force and two days of trade talks in Washington drew a blank. Many are still hopeful that common sense will prevail, but what if negotiations fall through? What would happen if analysts’ worst fears are realized, and we enter a full-blown trade war? What would be the impact on the export-oriented economies of the ASEAN region?
August 16, 2018
Emerging Markets have suffered in recent years due to low commodities prices and slower global demand. With signs that emerging markets were on the comeback trail in 2017, many analysts earlier this year believed that 2018 would be much brighter for Emerging Markets, however, there are signs that tailwinds are fading. The IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook that this year and next, "growth in emerging market and developing economies will rise before leveling off.”
Our economists believe that there is a growing divergence between developed and developing economies. Among developing nations with economies with relatively solid fundamentals and driven by commodity exports—especially oil—growth is accelerating this year going into next. However, higher yields in the United States, the rise in energy prices and large exposure to foreign debt are putting pressure on some oil-importing countries and those with persistent macroeconomic imbalances. This mostly results in heightened volatility in their financial and equity markets, as well as sizeable currency depreciations. Let’s take a closer look at what’s expected for some of these countries in the coming year:
August 14, 2018
After years of low global interest rates, a tightening cycle in the U.S. has reverberated around the world and sparked a shift in global monetary policy. In Latin America, central banks’ actions are at the forefront of economic discourse, as policymakers respond to challenges created by the tightening cycle and financial market volatility. Moreover, a busy electoral calendar this year and domestic challenges such as large external imbalances in some economies further complicate policymaking. With monetary policy under the microscope, FocusEconomics Latin America economists provide a snapshot of the main central bank governors across the region and their track records so far.
August 13, 2018
Over a year since the OPEC deal to cap oil production was announced, we thought it would be interesting to take a look at the latest news and forecasts on oil prices and how top oil producing countries’ economies are performing in light of it all.
August 8, 2018
Coffee prices have been sliding for years, dating back to 2016 and the conventional wisdom is that a record harvest expected this year in Brazil, the world’s largest producer of coffee, is set to keep prices low. However, according to a recent report from Barron’s, prices for coffee could take off going into 2019, which isn’t great for those coffee fiends out there; it looks like your cup of joe could get a bit more expensive.
In this post, we’ll be taking a look at current real-world examples to show how supply and demand and other market forces can impact the raw materials prices of some of the typical ingredients of a cup of coffee and how that is likely to influence how much you pay for one going into 2019.
August 2, 2018
By Guest Author:
Professor Arthur S. Guarino, MBA, MSSc, JD, Rutgers University, Dept. of Finance & Economics
Humankind is entering an unprecedented era in its history: an increasingly aging population. Combined with a shrinking populace, this situation will have an effect on almost every society on the planet. Whether it is sociological or economic, an aging population has severe ramifications that many nations must deal with including changing many long-held policies.
July 30, 2018
The 2018 FIFA World Cup ended a few weeks back and what an event it was. The World Cup, like the Olympics, is one of those unique sporting events that has the ability to captivate just about anyone and everyone, whether you are a hardcore football fan, a casual fan or normally not a fan at all. While not every country is represented at the World Cup—in fact, the vast majority of countries are unrepresented—this doesn’t stop people all over the world from taking part. 3.2 billion people tuned in to watch the World Cup in 2014 and forecasts for viewership for 2018 came in at 3.4 billion according to Research company GlobalWebIndex. That’s just about half of the world’s population.
July 30, 2018
“These were the first glorious days of general speculation. Railroads were emerging from the hands of the greater into the fingers of the lesser capitalists. Two successful harvests had given a fearful stimulus to the national energy; and it appeared perfectly certain that all the populous towns would be united, and the rich agricultural districts intersected, by the magical bands of iron.” So wrote W.E. Aytoun in his satirical novel How we got up the Glenmutchkin Railway.
July 26, 2018
Last year, cryptocurrencies made headlines as their value continued to rocket up, reaching a high of around $20000 in December. Bitcoin has recently drifted from the public spotlight, but not before its value crashed drastically in the space of a few months at the start of 2018.
Singapore and Vietnam both posted early Q3 GDP results. In Vietnam, the economy expanded at a faster pace in Q3 tha… https://t.co/uOHnJnvfbS
6 hours ago
How quickly will Turkey's economy recover following the economic fallout from the pandemic? Learn more:… https://t.co/LJELtDuMgl
4 days ago
Covid19 has led to a dramatic reassessment of economic projections for 2020. Comparing our panelists’ forecasts fro… https://t.co/ALrKT3nCKA
5 days ago
On 2 October, the lira traded at TRY 7.77 per USD, depreciating 5.0% MoM. The lira is seen remaining under pressur… https://t.co/Xry1AAkbPE
5 days ago
To discuss the differences between Brazil & Mexico's Covid-19 policy responses, we spoke to Marco Oviedo, head of e… https://t.co/W7jxcCF5xN
1 week ago
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