FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
December 18, 2018
2019 is poised to be a better year for the Latin American economy after a tough 2018 characterized by a chaotic and noisy election cycle, a sharp decline in sentiment for emerging-market assets and a U-turn toward global protectionism. Next year, regional growth (excluding Venezuela) is expected to improve to 2.3% from the 1.7% projected this year. Strengthening momentum in Brazil thanks to an improving labor market, less political noise and the faded impact of the truckers’ strike will chiefly fuel the region’s acceleration, while Argentina should drag less on growth after this year’s hard economic adjustment. To a lesser extent, faster growth in Chile and Peru will also boost regional growth.
December 10, 2018
Few countries in modern memory have suffered as much economic destruction and human misery as Ethiopia and Rwanda. In the mid-1990s, both ranked among the poorest nations in the world, with GDP per capita of less than USD 150 dollars. At that time, both had recently emerged from bloody civil wars which left millions dead, ravaged infrastructure, and—in the case of Ethiopia—unleashed devastating famine. The economic outlook made grim reading. Yet fast forward just 25 years and, against all the odds, they are arguably the two most economically dynamic countries in the whole of Africa. Growth rates are the envy of the rest of the continent (around 10% and 7% year-on-year in Ethiopia and Rwanda respectively over the last decade), poverty has plummeted, and Ethiopian famine has been well and truly consigned to the past.
December 7, 2018
With 2018 coming to a close and 2019 rapidly approaching, we thought it would be a good idea to ask our economists a few questions regarding key commodities about trends they saw in 2018 and what they project for 2019. Below are their answers:
December 6, 2018
In early October, news broke that Bahrain had reached a financial support agreement (FSA) with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, with the first tranche expected to be transferred before the end of the year. The deal should help to alleviate Bahrain’s distressed financial sector and support the country’s currency peg, following deteriorating macroeconomic fundamentals after years of suppressed oil prices and exacerbated by extreme volatility in emerging markets this year. The consequent low level of international reserves and dire fiscal situation have sparked fears among investors over the country’s ability to service its debt and to maintain the peg.
November 30, 2018
By Guest Author:
Professor Arthur S. Guarino, MBA, MSSc, JD, Rutgers University, Dept. of Finance & Economics
While the U.S. macroeconomy is growing at a healthy rate with low unemployment, moderate inflation, and stable increases in its gross domestic product, there are four possible bubbles that could have devastating effects if they burst. These bubbles −car loans, credit card debt, student loans, and the stock market −are growing and may burst if there is another financial crisis or a black swan.
November 19, 2018
GDP per capita is often considered an indicator of the standard of living of a given country, as it reflects the average wealth of each person residing in a country. It is therefore the standard method used to compare how poor or wealthy countries are in relation to each other. With 2018 coming to a close, we decided to take a look at our forecasts for GDP per capita from 2019 to 2023 for the 127 countries we cover to get an idea of what countries are the poorest currently and which will be making a leap toward becoming wealthier in the coming years. The projections used in this study are Consensus Forecasts based on the individual forecasts of over 1000 world renowned investment banks, economic think tanks and professional economic forecasting firms.
November 13, 2018
Despite boasting the eighth-largest economy in the world, growth in Italy has stagnated for more than two decades. Economist Massimo Bassetti give us his six reasons for Italy’s weak economic growth over the last few decades:
November 8, 2018
Jair Bolsonaro will take the reins of Brazil’s economy on 1 January, after winning 55% of the vote in the second-round of the presidential election held on 28 October. The congressman and former army captain beat Workers’ Party candidate Fernando Haddad and will be the country’s first right-wing president in almost 15 years. Markets reacted positively to the news, with the Bovespa stock index hitting a record high and the real strengthening the day after the election. With election uncertainty finally lifted from the shoulders of Latin America’s largest economy, FocusEconomics asked some of our panelists to comment on what a Bolsonaro presidency means for their economic forecasts.
November 7, 2018
At the global level, the consequences of the financial crisis put the role that governments should assume when their banking systems face difficulties under the spotlight.
October 30, 2018
It is often stated that there is a major financial crisis every 10 years or so. Having said that, it’s been a little over a decade since the Lehman Brothers collapse sparked the last global financial crisis (GFC) and with global economic growth starting to show signs of petering out, some in the media and elsewhere in the public eye are forecasting another global financial crisis in the very near future.
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