FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
September 19, 2018
GDP per capita is often considered an indicator of the standard of living of a given country, as it reflects the average wealth of each person residing in a country. It is therefore the standard method used to compare how poor or wealthy countries are in relation to each other. As we get closer to 2019, we decided to take a look at our forecasts for GDP per capita from 2019 to 2022 for the 127 countries we cover to get an idea of what countries are the wealthiest currently and how the rankings will change over the coming years. The projections used in this study are Consensus Forecasts based on the individual forecasts of over 1000 world renowned investment banks, economic think tanks and professional economic forecasting firms.
September 17, 2018
Angola’s government recently reached out to the IMF for talks on a loan deal in exchange for more structural reforms. Angola is Africa’s third-largest economy and the continent’s second largest oil-exporter. The economy was badly hit by the plunge in oil prices after 2014.
September 7, 2018
The Turkish proverb “Zararın neresinden dönülse kârdır” can be loosely translated as “reducing losses at any point is always profitable ”. Simply put, it means that if one is on the wrong track, then the best course of action is to perform a U-turn, however painful or chastening it may be in the short run.
Economists and investors who have followed the tumultuous developments in Turkey in recent weeks must surely be hoping for the government and Central Bank to take the message to heart. Over the last month the lira has collapsed, driven by geopolitical tension with the U.S. and loose fiscal and monetary policy. This has led input costs to rocket and is saddling corporates with an ever heftier external debt burden.
August 29, 2018
The pounding of the trade war drums is growing ever more deafening, with the U.S. and China currently engaged in an escalating, tit-for-tat tariff battle. The latest salvo came on 23 August when a fresh raft of tariffs came into force and two days of trade talks in Washington drew a blank. Many are still hopeful that common sense will prevail, but what if negotiations fall through? What would happen if analysts’ worst fears are realized, and we enter a full-blown trade war? What would be the impact on the export-oriented economies of the ASEAN region?
August 23, 2018
Economics influencers such as academics, journalists, industry professionals and even central bankers frequently take to Twitter to share their daily thoughts on all things economics, finance, monetary policy and politics in concise yet informative 240-character Tweets. With the success of our Top Economics and Finance Bloggers lists and the fact that not all economics inflencers have blogs, we put together a list of 75 top economics influencers that you can follow on Twitter. We have ranked this list by number of followers. This list can be thought of as a living document, therefore, we will edit the list from time to time to keep it up-to-date and suggest more influencers for you to follow. With that said, let's get to the list of 75 top economics influencers:
August 16, 2018
Emerging Markets have suffered in recent years due to low commodities prices and slower global demand. With signs that emerging markets were on the comeback trail in 2017, many analysts earlier this year believed that 2018 would be much brighter for Emerging Markets, however, there are signs that tailwinds are fading. The IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook that this year and next, "growth in emerging market and developing economies will rise before leveling off.”
Our economists believe that there is a growing divergence between developed and developing economies. Among developing nations with economies with relatively solid fundamentals and driven by commodity exports—especially oil—growth is accelerating this year going into next. However, higher yields in the United States, the rise in energy prices and large exposure to foreign debt are putting pressure on some oil-importing countries and those with persistent macroeconomic imbalances. This mostly results in heightened volatility in their financial and equity markets, as well as sizeable currency depreciations. Let’s take a closer look at what’s expected for some of these countries in the coming year:
August 14, 2018
After years of low global interest rates, a tightening cycle in the U.S. has reverberated around the world and sparked a shift in global monetary policy. In Latin America, central banks’ actions are at the forefront of economic discourse, as policymakers respond to challenges created by the tightening cycle and financial market volatility. Moreover, a busy electoral calendar this year and domestic challenges such as large external imbalances in some economies further complicate policymaking. With monetary policy under the microscope, FocusEconomics Latin America economists provide a snapshot of the main central bank governors across the region and their track records so far.
August 13, 2018
Over a year since the OPEC deal to cap oil production was announced, we thought it would be interesting to take a look at the latest news and forecasts on oil prices and how top oil producing countries’ economies are performing in light of it all.
August 8, 2018
Coffee prices have been sliding for years, dating back to 2016 and the conventional wisdom is that a record harvest expected this year in Brazil, the world’s largest producer of coffee, is set to keep prices low. However, according to a recent report from Barron’s, prices for coffee could take off going into 2019, which isn’t great for those coffee fiends out there; it looks like your cup of joe could get a bit more expensive.
In this post, we’ll be taking a look at current real-world examples to show how supply and demand and other market forces can impact the raw materials prices of some of the typical ingredients of a cup of coffee and how that is likely to influence how much you pay for one going into 2019.
August 2, 2018
By Guest Author:
Professor Arthur S. Guarino, MBA, MSSc, JD, Rutgers University, Dept. of Finance & Economics
Humankind is entering an unprecedented era in its history: an increasingly aging population. Combined with a shrinking populace, this situation will have an effect on almost every society on the planet. Whether it is sociological or economic, an aging population has severe ramifications that many nations must deal with including changing many long-held policies.
Romania: Industrial production contracts in October at sharpest rate in over one decade https://t.co/B7pBzXeAbA
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Australia: Business sentiment falls back in Novemberhttps://t.co/l4xNOqZg56
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Australia: Consumer sentiment more pessimistic in December https://t.co/e1qIkrTuYA
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Eurozone: Industrial output falls again in Octoberhttps://t.co/WjW5QS0Guk
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Taiwan: Incumbent favorite to retain the presidency but majority unlikely; broad policy continuity expected ahead https://t.co/SAs6Oem0Tw
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