FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
Survey of International Economists Predicts a Le Pen Defeat in French Elections, Says Macron has Best Economic Plan
March 29, 2017
A new survey by FocusEconomics released Tuesday shows that the majority of the 22 international and local macroeconomic experts polled believe that uncertainty surrounding the elections in France is not affecting the economy as a Le Pen defeat is likely.
March 28, 2017
Guest blog post by Neven Valev, Ph.D., Founder and Head of Research at www.theglobaleconomy.com.
Comparing countries is a useful exercise as it puts the national economies in global context. Whether or not a country is developed in economic and financial terms is a question that makes sense only in relative terms. This article discusses the Spanish economy as an example of how to make such an international comparison. The focus is on four key areas: economic development, financial system development, rule of law, and international trade and investment. Spain is interesting as it is a large developed economy that does, however, face challenges.
March 27, 2017
Violence is Latin Americans’ main concern
*Guest blog post from Latinoamerica21.
Latin America is the most violent region on the planet. The World Health Organization (WHO) believes that crime and violence are at epidemic levels, and despite the region’s recent robust economic growth, crime has continued to grow. This should be Latin Americans’ main concern, more than unemployment or the economic situation, yet the economic costs of crime and violence have thus far not received sufficient attention.
March 22, 2017
Read a guest post from Economist Daniel Lacalle, in which he provides some insight on five very important issues that are likely to impact the global economic outlook for the foreseeable future.
March 16, 2017
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s liberal VVD party has won again despite losing seats, keeping the far right in a largely ineffectual position. The Netherlands is one of Europe’s best performing economies, which surely helped see reason ultimately triumph over populism after a campaign dominated by much political noise from Geert Wilders’ anti-immigration party. And yet voters still punished the outgoing coalition heavily. Rutte’s party lost about a quarter of its support and its traditional coalition partner all but collapsed, with the Green-Left party making substantial gains to emerge as an unexpected victor of the night and a potential kingmaker in coalition negotiations. On the face of it the Dutch economy is doing remarkably well, yet voters were clearly not entirely happy with the political status quo. While the Liberals do battle behind the scenes to form a working majority in the fragmented Dutch parliament, we take a look at the economic situation that the new government will inherit.
“The data is not a true reflection of reality in India” Interview with Société Générale India Economist
March 16, 2017
Doubts over the true growth pace of India’s economy have plagued market analysts since the government changed its GDP methodology in 2015 and were recently exacerbated by the growth figures for the October-December period. While a sharp slowdown in the October to December period was expected due to a cash crunch caused by the government’s demonetization, official figures showed that growth barely skipped a beat and the economy expanded 7.0% annually—one of the best results in the world. Against this confusing backdrop, we spoke with one of our panel members, India Economist Kunal Kumar Kundu from Société Générale, about the effects of the government’s demonetization, his take on the GDP figures and the overall picture for the economy going forward.
March 15, 2017
A couple of months in to the OPEC deal to cap oil production, we thought it would be interesting to take a look at the latest news and forecasts on oil prices and how top oil producing countries’ economies are performing in light of it all.
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March 6, 2017
Global inflation has been on an upward trend recently, hitting a multi-year high of 4.1% in January. The increase stemmed mainly from higher commodity prices, particularly energy commodities such as crude oil and its derivatives, which caused inflation to hit multi-year highs in many major economies.
Rising inflation is limiting space for the continuation of monetary policy easing in some economies and has led analysts to speculate that the ECB could announce a tapering of its bond buying program this year. In addition, the expected tightening cycle in the U.S. is likely to put pressure on emerging market currencies and has caused a number of central banks to hold interest rates unchanged to prevent capital outflows.
Global inflation came in at 3.5% in 2016, the highest result since 2012. While low commodity prices kept inflation contained in advanced economies, economic imbalances fueled price pressures in emerging markets. The infographic below shows the top 10 economies with the highest and lowest inflation around the world.
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Is rising uncertainty driving Mexico’s economic outlook? Interview with Chief Economist of the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico
February 22, 2017
The Mexican economy got off to a weak start to the year, following a mild improvement in the final quarter of 2016. A preliminary estimate showed that GDP increased 2.2% year-on-year in Q4, causing the economy to expand 2.3% in the full year 2016. The result is below the 2.6% GDP growth achieved in 2015 and while the headline figure does not appear to be particularly alarming, the underlying trend suggests that Mexico’s economic growth is not robust enough. The rising uncertainty related to the unclear path that trade and immigration policies will follow during the Trump administration will continue to drive Mexico’s future economic growth. Against this backdrop, we spoke with one of our panel members Chief Economist Eduardo Vázquez from the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico about the recent developments in the Mexican economy and what he expects for this year.
February 21, 2017
For all of you coffee fiends out there, we’ve got some bad news: As reported by Bloomberg last month, it looks like your morning cup of joe is about to get a little more expensive. That’s not all, however, as it looks like the milk you put in your coffee is also about to get a bit pricier to boot. In this post we will attempt to apply economics to something all economists and non-economists can understand: a cup of coffee. We’ll be taking current real-world examples to show how supply and demand can impact the prices of some of the typical ingredients for a cup of coffee and how that is likely to influence how much you pay for one in 2017.
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Malaysia to see solid economic growth in 2017 https://t.co/3pWKj0qJaH
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How is Nigeria’s economy weathering oil disruptions? https://t.co/N9lJVtjHAD
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- Emerging Markets Are Kicking Into Higher Gear In 2017
- Why is foreign direct investment in Latin America falling again?
- Are Central Banks Nationalising the Economy?
- Bounty or burden? The impact of refugees on European economies is far from clear
- What’s the future of U.S.-Latin America trade relations?
- Taxes or cutbacks? Latin America's challenge of sustaining spending without causing debt to skyrocket
- Are uranium prices making a comeback?
- Taxing the Economy: Achieving a Delicate Balance
- Is the UK really "shackled to a corpse"?
- How will Latin America’s upcoming lengthy election cycle affect the reform agenda and credit ratings?
- How will emerging market economies perform in 2017?
- Chilean Economy in Focus: Interview with Senior Economist of the Chamber of Commerce of Santiago
- CEOs Rank Top Economies for Growth Opportunities
- The Mobile Ecosystem & Latin America's Economy
- Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy: Interview with Tim Cooper from BMI Research
- How will the Fed reduce its balance sheet & and how will the ECB end QE? - 19 economic experts weigh in
- Thoughts on "unwinding" QE from Frances Coppola
- Gold: The Most Precious of Metals (Part 3)
- The Fed and ECB at a crossroads: Unwinding QE
- Spain: The economy that continues to silence the critics
- Latin America: The Most Unequal Region in the World
- The History of OPEC: Has it been a Success?
- FocusEconomics Announces 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards Winners
- Latin America’s rising unemployment bucks nearly decade long trend
- Escape from the Central Bank Trap by Daniel Lacalle
- China's economic rebalancing act: What to look out for in 2017
- Driving Growth in Latin America: Challenges & Priorities
- Is the Global Economy Rebalancing?
- Commodity exporters face challenging times
- Recent Global Events Facilitate Mercosur-Pacific Alliance
- 23 economic experts weigh in: Why is productivity growth so low?
- Mexico's outlook as Trump nears 100-day mark
- Interview with Oxford Economics Senior Economist on implications of the possible outcomes of the French Presidential Election
- The anxiety of the small saver in a world of negative interest rates
- Brexit negotiations. Between Uncertainty and Urgency
- An Economic History of the EU from El Blog Salmón
- Baby Boomin': Implications of high population growth in Latin America
- Survey of International Economists Predicts a Le Pen Defeat in French Elections, Says Macron has Best Economic Plan
- Spain in a global context: developed economy with some challenges
- How much is crime costing Latin America?
- Predictions & Estimates from Economist Daniel Lacalle
- What economy will the new Dutch government inherit?
- “The data is not a true reflection of reality in India” Interview with Société Générale India Economist
- 2017 & 2018 Economic Outlook for the Top Oil Producing Countries
- Which countries will have the highest and lowest inflation in 2017?
- What are the prospects for Emerging Economies in 2017?
- What to expect in Asia for 2017
- Top Economics & Finance Blogs of 2017
- Latam to Resume Moderate Growth in 2017 but Important Risks Plague Outlook
- 4 Key European Elections That Will Impact the Economy in 2017
- How are security concerns and political chaos affecting Turkey’s economy?
- Global growth to edge up in 2017
- Set to breach targets again? Debt and deficit outlooks for Southern European Eurozone countries in 2016 & 2017
- What does Donald Trump mean for the U.S. economy?
- How will emerging markets perform in 2017?
- The economic impact of a break in U.S.-Philippines ties
- Trump election: Base metals surge due to infrastructure plan
- 5 updates on the Venezuelan economic crisis
- Canada: When your neighbor’s house is on fire…
- Short-term pain before long-term gain? A look at French labor reform and economic growth
- Asia: Unremarkable growth & unfulfilled promises?
- How India's latest monsoon is affecting the economy
- Russian economy update in wake of OPEC deal announcement
- Innovation in Latin America: Potential Goes Untapped Due to Weak Economic Conditions
- The Wisdom of the Crowds and the Consensus Forecast
- Can the peso predict the U.S. election results?
- There's no end in sight to the Venezuela crisis
- A Look at the European Union Political Calendar
- Survey of international economists shows uncertainty surrounding elections damaging U.S. growth prospects
- FocusEconomics partners with leading online statistics provider Statista
- China: Recent postive economic data may be papering over the cracks
- Sub-Saharan Africa's 2016 & 2017 growth rates
- The Italian Dilemma: Weak banks pose risk to already faltering domestic demand
- How much money do migrants from Latin America send home?
- The U.S.' (Not So) Mysterious Case of the Missing Men
- What to expect from the G20 economies by 2020
- The Pain in Spain: Robust GDP growth cannot mask the persistent structural deficit
- Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog
- Marginal Revolution
- Morss Global Finance
- Observatorio Asia
- Observing Greece
- Of Markets & Men
- Punto de Vista Económico
- The Capital Spectator
- Trading Floor: Social trading, news and analysis
- True Economics
- Emre Deliveli's Blog on the Turkish Economy
- MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis
- Wolf Street
- Geopolitica italiana
- bAg (Blog de economía de la ALdEa Global)
- Stock Trader´s Almanac
- Real-World Economics Review Blog
- The Winkle Institute for Worldwide Economic Stability
- Dash of Insight
- Worthwhile Canadian Initiative
- Chaco Realidades
- Comentario Financiero