FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
February 15, 2019
The Turkish economy endured a rollercoaster ride last year. Economic activity boomed in H1, as the government ratcheted up spending in the run-up to the presidential and parliamentary elections in June. Economic imbalances intensified in tandem, with the current account deficit and inflation soaring.
Even after the election was over, with a decisive victory for Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his AK party, public spending continued at full tilt. Coupled with a hesitant Central Bank—likely under political pressure from the president—investor jitters started to mount. The lira, which had already been under pressure since the start of the year along with other emerging-market currencies, began to crumble.
January 31, 2019
Given the current large degree of uncertainty over the evolution of Brexit, this month we polled our panelists in order to shed some light on the issue. We asked panelists for the probability they assigned to different Brexit scenarios, and the UK’s future growth prospects in each of these scenarios.
Sweden just formed a new government and approved its 2019 budget: what does it mean for the economy?
January 25, 2019
For several months following last September’s general elections, Sweden had a taste of something relatively unheard of in its recent memory: political paralysis. The vote had seen a surge in support for the right-wing Sweden Democrats alongside a slump in seats for Sweden’s two largest parties, the Social Democrats and the Moderates. This robbed both the center-left and center-right political groupings of a parliamentary majority, hamstringing the formation of a government.
January 22, 2019
Global debt has climbed at an eye-watering pace over the last decade. According to the International Monetary Fund, global debt climbed to 225% of global GDP in 2017. That’s 12 percentage points higher than the previous record level set in 2009, during the Global Financial Crisis, and many have pointed toward the global debt pile-up, particularly public debt, as the potential culprit for the next global financial crisis.
January 17, 2019
With the new year just underway, we polled 13 economic experts for their predictions for the global economy in 2019. Before diving into that, our latest economic outlook for the global economy has growth coming in at 3.1% in 2019, which is below the 3.3% increase projected for 2018. Global economic growth is seen coming in at 2.9% in 2020.
January 16, 2019
By: Constantin Gurdgiev, PhD
2018 passed into markets history as the year of risks re-coupling. That, plus the year of historical records. Some were good, but fleeting. One is bad, and lasting. As the chart below shows, 2018 is now in records books with the most asset classes registering negative returns for a year: 93 percent, as of the end of December.
January 8, 2019
With the new year just beginning, we reached out to economist Daniel Lacalle, PhD to find out what he envisages for the global economy in 2019. Read on to find out more.
January 4, 2019
Since the Doi Moi policy reform overhaul starting in 1986 and more recently through its accession into the World Trade Organization in 2007, Vietnam has become a success story of robust economic growth driven by trade liberalization and global integration. Indeed, Vietnam's opening to international commerce and foreign direct investment has undoubtedly played a pivotal role in the stellar growth it has experienced over the last three decades, that transformed it from one of the poorest nations in the world to a middle-income market economy. Its economic narrative has been one of a rapid transition from an agriculture-based economy to one where manufacturing and services play a much larger role.
December 21, 2018
FocusEconomics’ economist Christopher Thomas sat down with Benoit Durocher, a senior economist following Canada at Desjardins Group, in mid-November for a wide-ranging discussion about what might lie ahead for Canada’s economy in the New Year. Their conversation, presented below, has been condensed and edited for clarity.
December 21, 2018
Predicting the future evolution of the UK’s key economic variables is fraught with uncertainty, and this is particularly true in the case of the pound, which has already been on a merry dance since the 2016 Brexit referendum.
With Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement floundering, the British parliament in the throes of the worst political crisis in decades and time running out fast, the outcome of the Brexit process is anyone’s guess. May’s deal? A Norway-style arrangement? No deal? Or even no-Brexit? All bets are off.
Following a sharp selloff in the immediate aftermath of the vote, the pound then clawed back some value. But in recent weeks, as the 29 March EU departure date looms ever larger in the rearview mirror with no political solution on the horizon, sterling has begun to sag—a process which is likely to continue in the coming months as markets grow more ever more jittery about the prospect of no deal.
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