FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
May 9, 2017
Assessing shifts in the giant current account surpluses of Germany, China and Japan
Decades of conflicting perspectives over the causes and effects of global trade imbalances have been thrust back into the spotlight in recent months by Donald Trump’s brazen criticism of almost every country with a significant current account surplus with the U.S. His controversial accusation that big exporter countries are deliberately weakening their currencies to gain a competitive advantage taps into an issue that has perplexed and divided economists and policymakers ever since the mid-1990s. At that time, countries such as the U.S. were starting to build up large current account deficits, while others such as China, Germany and Japan were accumulating large surpluses.
May 8, 2017
The commodity super cycle is well and truly over, as has been exemplified by the tumble in commodity prices over the last few years. Emerging market economies that depend heavily on commodities exports for economic growth have been floundering as a result. However, Commodities prices are on their way back with underlying fundamentals of the commodity markets remaining positive through Q1 and are expected to continue to support the recovery throughout this year. But will the comeback in commodities prices impact the emerging market economies' economic growth? In this post we take a look at some of the commodities that are making a comeback and the outlook their biggest exporters.
April 25, 2017
Recent changes within Mercosur and the Trump's victory in the U.S. have created a situation that would have been unimaginable just a few months ago
*Guest blog post from Latinoamerica21.
"Rarely in history do scenarios align as they are aligned today," Mexico's Economy Minister, Ildefonso Guajardo, said when speaking about the first meeting of Mercosur and the Pacific Alliance countries’ foreign ministers.
April 20, 2017
Productivity is considered by some to be the most important area of economics and yet one of the least understood. Its simplest definition is output per hour worked, however, productivity in the real world is not that simple. Productivity is a major factor in an economy’s ability to grow and therefore is the greatest determinant of the standard of living for a given person or group of people. It is the reason why a worker today makes much more than a century ago, because each hour of work produces more output of goods and services.
According to Ian Stewart, Deloitte’s Chief Economist, “It is hard to overstate the importance of productivity in driving improvements in living standards. Since 1850, UK GDP per head has risen 20-fold, transforming our standards of living. If productivity had remained flat over that period, GDP per head would only have doubled.”
April 18, 2017
The risk of increased tension and a deterioration in relations under the Trump government will remain high in Mexico and across Latin America. The policies pursued by the U.S. president in areas such as trade and immigration will have an important bearing, particularly in Mexico, although current developments suggest that Trump is not likely to follow through on some of his more radical campaign pledges, while the renegotiation of NAFTA that he announced after being sworn is likely to lead to adjustments to the agreement rather that its total termination.
Interview with Oxford Economics Senior Economist on implications of the possible outcomes of the French Presidential Election
April 14, 2017
France is heading to the polls on 23 April after the most unpredictable election race in recent history. Political outsiders have made large inroads after France’s two main political parties failed to deliver on promises of unleashing faster growth. With an uneven economic recovery and years of sluggish growth, the economy has taken center stage in the election debate. Each candidate offers a different solution to jumpstart activity, but at the core of all their economic plans lies the urgent need to implement far-reaching reforms to halt the decline of France’s economic power. To gain insight into the upcoming election and its economic consequences, we spoke with one of our panel members, Marion Amiot, Senior Economist at Oxford Economics.
April 11, 2017
A year ago I wrote a series of articles on monetary policy action by central banks in recent decades. I began by summarizing the state of affairs of a global economy in which central banks have acquired an enormous role so much so that their continuous interventions, first conventional and then "extraordinary", have become an everyday economic reality. While their role in managing the global financial crisis was key as they avoided a collapse in the liquidity of the system that would have undoubtedly aggravated the depression, their effectiveness in facilitating a return to growth, job creation, global deleveraging, financial sector risk reduction, sustainability of public finances and structural imbalances in their respective states is doubtful.
April 5, 2017
”If I cannot have you the way I want you, I do not want you at all” Dr. Feelgood
Brexit has been launched. Mainstream consensus is going through the typical phases of anger (“this cannot be”), shock (“only uneducated, old, and fascists have voted exit”), denial (“it will be stopped by parliament or the commons”) and now we approach, slowly, to the phase of acceptance.
And there it is: Article 50.
April 4, 2017
*Guest blog post from El Blog Salmón
60 years ago the seed of the European Union was sown, these are the economic milestones that have taken place since…
April 3, 2017
The demographic pressure of skyrocketing population growth is most evident today in the region’s urban areas.
*Guest blog post from Latinoamerica21.
Latin America is home to about 625 million people, about 1 in 10 of the world's population, which now has 7 billion inhabitants. It is expected that within a generation there will be 9 billion people in the world. This high population level, however, is very recent; less than three hundred years ago the total population of the Earth was just 1 billion people, of which only 10 million lived in the Latin America region.
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Malaysia to see solid economic growth in 2017 https://t.co/3pWKj0qJaH
20 hours ago
How is Nigeria’s economy weathering oil disruptions? https://t.co/N9lJVtjHAD
23 hours ago
- Emerging Markets Are Kicking Into Higher Gear In 2017
- Why is foreign direct investment in Latin America falling again?
- Are Central Banks Nationalising the Economy?
- Bounty or burden? The impact of refugees on European economies is far from clear
- What’s the future of U.S.-Latin America trade relations?
- Taxes or cutbacks? Latin America's challenge of sustaining spending without causing debt to skyrocket
- Are uranium prices making a comeback?
- Taxing the Economy: Achieving a Delicate Balance
- Is the UK really "shackled to a corpse"?
- How will Latin America’s upcoming lengthy election cycle affect the reform agenda and credit ratings?
- How will emerging market economies perform in 2017?
- Chilean Economy in Focus: Interview with Senior Economist of the Chamber of Commerce of Santiago
- CEOs Rank Top Economies for Growth Opportunities
- The Mobile Ecosystem & Latin America's Economy
- Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy: Interview with Tim Cooper from BMI Research
- How will the Fed reduce its balance sheet & and how will the ECB end QE? - 19 economic experts weigh in
- Gold: The Most Precious of Metals (Part 3)
- Thoughts on "unwinding" QE from Frances Coppola
- The Fed and ECB at a crossroads: Unwinding QE
- Spain: The economy that continues to silence the critics
- Latin America: The Most Unequal Region in the World
- The History of OPEC: Has it been a Success?
- FocusEconomics Announces 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards Winners
- Latin America’s rising unemployment bucks nearly decade long trend
- Escape from the Central Bank Trap by Daniel Lacalle
- China's economic rebalancing act: What to look out for in 2017
- Driving Growth in Latin America: Challenges & Priorities
- Is the Global Economy Rebalancing?
- Commodity exporters face challenging times
- Recent Global Events Facilitate Mercosur-Pacific Alliance
- 23 economic experts weigh in: Why is productivity growth so low?
- Mexico's outlook as Trump nears 100-day mark
- Interview with Oxford Economics Senior Economist on implications of the possible outcomes of the French Presidential Election
- The anxiety of the small saver in a world of negative interest rates
- Brexit negotiations. Between Uncertainty and Urgency
- An Economic History of the EU from El Blog Salmón
- Baby Boomin': Implications of high population growth in Latin America
- Survey of International Economists Predicts a Le Pen Defeat in French Elections, Says Macron has Best Economic Plan
- Spain in a global context: developed economy with some challenges
- How much is crime costing Latin America?
- Predictions & Estimates from Economist Daniel Lacalle
- What economy will the new Dutch government inherit?
- “The data is not a true reflection of reality in India” Interview with Société Générale India Economist
- 2017 & 2018 Economic Outlook for the Top Oil Producing Countries
- Which countries will have the highest and lowest inflation in 2017?
- What are the prospects for Emerging Economies in 2017?
- What to expect in Asia for 2017
- Top Economics & Finance Blogs of 2017
- Latam to Resume Moderate Growth in 2017 but Important Risks Plague Outlook
- 4 Key European Elections That Will Impact the Economy in 2017
- How are security concerns and political chaos affecting Turkey’s economy?
- Global growth to edge up in 2017
- Set to breach targets again? Debt and deficit outlooks for Southern European Eurozone countries in 2016 & 2017
- What does Donald Trump mean for the U.S. economy?
- How will emerging markets perform in 2017?
- The economic impact of a break in U.S.-Philippines ties
- Trump election: Base metals surge due to infrastructure plan
- 5 updates on the Venezuelan economic crisis
- Canada: When your neighbor’s house is on fire…
- Short-term pain before long-term gain? A look at French labor reform and economic growth
- Asia: Unremarkable growth & unfulfilled promises?
- How India's latest monsoon is affecting the economy
- Innovation in Latin America: Potential Goes Untapped Due to Weak Economic Conditions
- Russian economy update in wake of OPEC deal announcement
- The Wisdom of the Crowds and the Consensus Forecast
- Can the peso predict the U.S. election results?
- There's no end in sight to the Venezuela crisis
- A Look at the European Union Political Calendar
- Survey of international economists shows uncertainty surrounding elections damaging U.S. growth prospects
- FocusEconomics partners with leading online statistics provider Statista
- China: Recent postive economic data may be papering over the cracks
- Sub-Saharan Africa's 2016 & 2017 growth rates
- The Italian Dilemma: Weak banks pose risk to already faltering domestic demand
- How much money do migrants from Latin America send home?
- The U.S.' (Not So) Mysterious Case of the Missing Men
- What to expect from the G20 economies by 2020
- The Pain in Spain: Robust GDP growth cannot mask the persistent structural deficit
- Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog
- Marginal Revolution
- Morss Global Finance
- Observatorio Asia
- Observing Greece
- Of Markets & Men
- Punto de Vista Económico
- The Capital Spectator
- Trading Floor: Social trading, news and analysis
- True Economics
- Emre Deliveli's Blog on the Turkish Economy
- MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis
- Wolf Street
- Geopolitica italiana
- bAg (Blog de economía de la ALdEa Global)
- Stock Trader´s Almanac
- Real-World Economics Review Blog
- The Winkle Institute for Worldwide Economic Stability
- Dash of Insight
- Worthwhile Canadian Initiative
- Chaco Realidades
- Comentario Financiero