FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
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No Sign of Recovery: Evolution of Brazil’s 2015 Growth Forecasts
September 30, 2015
Brazil’s growth forecast for 2015 has followed an uninterrupted downward trend this year, dragged down by political turmoil and poor economic data. In January, analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics expected that the economy would grow in 2015, forecasting a 0.5% expansion. This forecast was largely on the back of less weak economic data emerging from the country and relative optimism that things would improve in 2015.
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FocusEconomics Expands Coverage to 127 Countries
September 13, 2015
We've been working this past year to greatly expand our coverage and we are happy to share that we now provide forecasts, data and analysis for 127 countries, accounting for 97% of global GDP.
Today, we work with over 800 economic analysts who provide us with 2,000 country forecasts for 30+ key economic indicators, which we compile and process every month.
We invite you to take a moment to review our full country coverage in Africa, the Americas, Asia, Europe and the Middle East here: www.focus-economics.com/
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Slump in commodities hits bond markets in Sub-Saharan Africa
August 31, 2015
In the last two years, we have seen large amounts of sovereign Eurobond issuances in the Sub-Saharan African region, reaching a record of more than USD 8 billion in 2015. However, this situation changed dramatically in the first half of this year.
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The resurgence of Iran
August 28, 2015
Major economic changes could be in store for both Iran as well as much of the Middle East as a result of the 17 July landmark nuclear agreement that includes the eventual removal of the economic sanctions that have plagued Iran in recent years. Recent opposition from within the United States threatens to derail the agreement, which could have significant implications for the economies of the country and the Middle East.
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From Growth to Collapse in Under 8 Months: The Evolution of Greece's 2015 GDP Growth Forecasts
August 10, 2015
Greece’s growth forecast for 2015 has followed an uninterrupted downward trend this year, dragged down by political turmoil and uncertainty over the country’s debt negotiations with international creditors. In January, FocusEconomics Consensus Panelists expected that the economy would record a second consecutive year of growth in 2015, forecasting a 2.0% expansion. This forecast was largely on the back of surprisingly positive economic data emerging from the indebted nation. Specifically, Q3 2014’s 1.9% annual expansion, which had marked the fastest pace of growth in over six years, suggested that the economy’s recovery was gaining traction and caused panelists to raise their forecast in January.
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Forward Guidance, a primer
July 22, 2015
Central bankers do not have an easy job at the best of times. They must work in a world of constant yet random shocks, imperfect models and political pressures, while trying to hit a moving inflationary target six months to a year down the line. All of this while working with a rather limited arsenal. Since 2008, central banks (CB) have used the interest rate as the primary tool to influence economic policy. Interest rates have approached, or in some cases even exceeded, the zero lower bound, with no sign of definite recovery. Drastic times call for drastic measures and central bankers have resorted to so-called unconventional monetary policy in order to provide additional monetary accommodation as a last resort. One such unconventional method termed “forward guidance” has been employed in one form or another by CBs around the world.
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China: The Key to Sustainable Growth
July 14, 2015
More than a year and a half has passed since the Chinese Communist Party's leaders last published a detailed blue print for overhauling the country’s economic model. Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang emphasized that China had to transition from an economic system, mostly based on investment, manufacturing and exports, to a model centered on consumption and services. The ultimate goal of the Xi-Li administration was to rebalance the economy toward a more sustainable long-term growth trajectory.
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FocusEconomics Speaks with Dukascopy Regarding the Greek Crisis
July 13, 2015
FocusEconomics Economist Teresa Kersting was recently interviewed by online Swiss financial television channel Dukascopy TV, focusing on Germany and its economic outlook in the near future.
The interview began with a discussion on the fall in German factory orders, which were slightly below what was forecast for the month of May. When asked what the significance of the contraction was for German manufacturing Teresa responded that the Factory Order Index is typically volatile and that the modest contraction of 0.2% was not cause for alarm. Strong growth numbers from April coupled with the increase in demand for orders from outside the EU made up for the shrinking numbers from within the EU and actually “painted a rather positive picture for German Manufacturing.”
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ASEAN: Economic Progress and Integration
July 7, 2015
The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is the goal of regional economic integration of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Set to launch by 31 December 2015, the AEC will endeavor to move the region toward a more globally-competitive single market and production base with free flows of goods, services, skilled labor, investments and capital across its 10 member states.
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[INFOGRAPHIC] Is Sub-Saharan Africa headed for the worst economic performance since the 2009 financial crisis?
June 3, 2015
Our panel of economic analysts cut their projections for the Sub-Saharan Africa region for the 6th consecutive month as external headwinds weigh on growth. Meanwhile, inflation reached an 8-month high and our panel projects that it will average 7.5% in 2015.
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Euro Area: Interview with HSBC
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Iran: Interview with Steven Burke, Iran economist at FocusEconomics
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