FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
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The Russian Economy Explained – A 3-Part Series (Part 1)
October 21, 2015
Originally posted in October 2015. Updated in November 2016.
FocusEconomics presents a 3-part series on the economy of Russia. In Part 1, we provide an overview of Russia’s economy from the time of the dissolution of the Soviet Union until 2015, detailing the assets and risk factors from an economic perspective as well as analysis and forecasts for GDP and inflation in the near-term.
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How do the freshly-released IMF GDP growth forecasts compare to the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast
October 6, 2015
The IMF has just released its biannual World Economic Outlook. Sharp downgrades were made to its growth forecasts for emerging economies, especially Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa and Russia. See how the IMF 2015 GDP growth forecasts compare to the latest consensus forecasts from the FocusEconomics’ network of the world’s leading economists.
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How will the global economy fare this year?
October 5, 2015
The global economy will continue to expand at a modest pace this year, with uneven projections across the main countries. Slowing growth in emerging economies and financial markets volatility cloud the world’s economic performance. Nevertheless, India and China continue to drive global growth. See the latest consensus forecasts from our network of the world’s leading economists.
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No Sign of Recovery: Evolution of Brazil’s 2015 Growth Forecasts
September 30, 2015
Brazil’s growth forecast for 2015 has followed an uninterrupted downward trend this year, dragged down by political turmoil and poor economic data. In January, analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics expected that the economy would grow in 2015, forecasting a 0.5% expansion. This forecast was largely on the back of less weak economic data emerging from the country and relative optimism that things would improve in 2015.
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FocusEconomics Expands Coverage to 127 Countries
September 13, 2015
We've been working this past year to greatly expand our coverage and we are happy to share that we now provide forecasts, data and analysis for 127 countries, accounting for 97% of global GDP.
Today, we work with over 800 economic analysts who provide us with 2,000 country forecasts for 30+ key economic indicators, which we compile and process every month.
We invite you to take a moment to review our full country coverage in Africa, the Americas, Asia, Europe and the Middle East here: www.focus-economics.com/
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Slump in commodities hits bond markets in Sub-Saharan Africa
August 31, 2015
In the last two years, we have seen large amounts of sovereign Eurobond issuances in the Sub-Saharan African region, reaching a record of more than USD 8 billion in 2015. However, this situation changed dramatically in the first half of this year.
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The resurgence of Iran
August 28, 2015
Major economic changes could be in store for both Iran as well as much of the Middle East as a result of the 17 July landmark nuclear agreement that includes the eventual removal of the economic sanctions that have plagued Iran in recent years. Recent opposition from within the United States threatens to derail the agreement, which could have significant implications for the economies of the country and the Middle East.
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From Growth to Collapse in Under 8 Months: The Evolution of Greece's 2015 GDP Growth Forecasts
August 10, 2015
Greece’s growth forecast for 2015 has followed an uninterrupted downward trend this year, dragged down by political turmoil and uncertainty over the country’s debt negotiations with international creditors. In January, FocusEconomics Consensus Panelists expected that the economy would record a second consecutive year of growth in 2015, forecasting a 2.0% expansion. This forecast was largely on the back of surprisingly positive economic data emerging from the indebted nation. Specifically, Q3 2014’s 1.9% annual expansion, which had marked the fastest pace of growth in over six years, suggested that the economy’s recovery was gaining traction and caused panelists to raise their forecast in January.
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Forward Guidance, a primer
July 22, 2015
Central bankers do not have an easy job at the best of times. They must work in a world of constant yet random shocks, imperfect models and political pressures, while trying to hit a moving inflationary target six months to a year down the line. All of this while working with a rather limited arsenal. Since 2008, central banks (CB) have used the interest rate as the primary tool to influence economic policy. Interest rates have approached, or in some cases even exceeded, the zero lower bound, with no sign of definite recovery. Drastic times call for drastic measures and central bankers have resorted to so-called unconventional monetary policy in order to provide additional monetary accommodation as a last resort. One such unconventional method termed “forward guidance” has been employed in one form or another by CBs around the world.
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China: The Key to Sustainable Growth
July 14, 2015
More than a year and a half has passed since the Chinese Communist Party's leaders last published a detailed blue print for overhauling the country’s economic model. Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang emphasized that China had to transition from an economic system, mostly based on investment, manufacturing and exports, to a model centered on consumption and services. The ultimate goal of the Xi-Li administration was to rebalance the economy toward a more sustainable long-term growth trajectory.
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