FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
How does the IMF’s latest quarterly global outlook compare to forecasts from over 30 of the world’s leading economists?
January 21, 2015
The World Bank just released its updated World Economic Ooutlook. We compared the IMF forecasts for 10 countries including, the USA, Russia, Japan, India, China and Brazil, to our own Consensus Forecasts from our panels of 30+ economic institutions. See how the forecasts stack up in our interactive infographic: http://bit.ly/1wnASjo
Announcing the MENA Consensus Forecast
January 13, 2015
We are pleased to announce that our new Middle East & North Africa Consensus Forecast report is now available. This is the most comprehensive collection of forecasts for MENA available on the market.
Widodo Launches Reform Agenda with Fuel Price Hike
December 2, 2014
On 17 November, Indonesia’s new President, Joko Widodo, announced that the price of government subsidized fuel would be raised by more than 30%. In addition to fulfilling his election promise to reduce government spending, the move also suggests that Widodo is serious about implementing economic reforms that are crucial for the country’s long term growth, even if they are unpopular and may limit short-term economic activity. The price hike is designed to relieve pressure on government finances, narrow the current account deficit through reduced fuel imports, and provide funds for much-needed infrastructure and social spending.
Catalonia's Non-Binding Independence Vote Contributes to Spanish Government's Woes
November 20, 2014
On 9 November, Catalonia held a “consultation of citizens” on the political future of Spain’s wealthy north-eastern region. Catalonia did not hold the independence referendum that had been planned as it was blocked by the Spanish Constitutional Court. The vote took place as the Spanish government and key political groups are facing heavy criticism for a series of corruption scandals.
Underperforming French Economy May Pick Up if Hollande Succeeds in Implementing Reforms
October 28, 2014
The French economy has underperformed in recent years and is facing challenges to stimulate economic growth due to a loss of competitiveness and the fact that much-needed structural reforms have yet to be implemented. Nevertheless, the country may see a pick-up in economic activity next year, should President François Hollande’s government succeed in implementing reforms.15 when FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy expanding 1.0%.
Assessing Mexico’s Economy at a Historical Milestone: Structural Reforms and Challenges
September 18, 2014
In 2013, Mexico’s government passed a constitutional reform, for which a slew of new legislation is expected to be implemented in the coming months. The effort to overhaul the country’s oil and gas sector is among the most anticipated liberalization efforts on the region.
Nicaragua Canal: Fact or Fiction?
September 9, 2014
The Nicaraguan government announced plans to build an interoceanic canal last year, which, if realized, would provide a boost to the Nicaraguan economy and could pose an important competitive threat to the Panama Canal. Although constructing the so-called Nicaragua Canal is technically possible, doubts surrounding the economic feasibility, the environmental impact, and the capability of construction company HKND to manage this mega-project, have led many to question whether or not it will ever actually be constructed.
Peru: El Niño Still on Economic Radar
August 19, 2014
Earlier this year, many expert climatologists sounded alarm bells about the possibility of another devastating episode of the weather phenomenon known as El Niño. Peru is one of Latin America’s most vulnerable countries to the economic impacts of El Niño and the Peruvian government and investors in the region should be on high alert. In fact, Peru’s fishing industry, agricultural sector and domestic infrastructure have all been severely damaged by previous episodes, such as the catastrophic El Niño of 1997–1998.
[INFOGRAPHIC] What's the Economic Cost of Ukraine's Civil War
August 7, 2014
Conflict in Ukraine has taken a drastic toll on the country and its economy. As the situation evolves, economists are continuously revising down their forecasts. See our timeline of key events in the conflict and the progression of FocusEconomics’ Consensus Forecast since the crisis began.
For more information and analysis on Ukraine’s Economy, visit: Ukraine Economic Outlook.
Consensus or Individual Forecasts?
July 16, 2014
Let me start with this: if you haven’t read Nate Silver’s The signal and the noise then I suggest you go pick it up right away. For anybody who is interested in the business of forecasting, Silver’s book is a must read. Silver, a baseball analyst-turned political analyst-turned forecaster extraordinaire, gained notoriety when he correctly predicted the 2008 U.S. presidential election almost flawlessly. In his book, he discusses the intricacies of forecasting and the enormous challenges presented when one attempts to anticipate the future, applying rigorous analysis combined with large amounts of rationality and common sense.
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Argentina: Interview with Ecolatina
The Poorest Countries in the World
The World's Top 10 Largest Economies
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook 2018 and 2019
2019 Economic Outlook for the Top Oil Producing Countries
Escape from the Central Bank Trap by Daniel Lacalle
The Wisdom of the Crowds and the Consensus Forecast
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CHINA: Retail sales expand at fastest pace in 15 months in June. Read More: https://t.co/IlchElWkv8 https://t.co/s7yw5Sdoyl
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COSTA RICA: On 5 July, the colón ended the day at 582 per USD, a 1.1% appreciation from the same day a month earlie… https://t.co/gVQNyi0nbx
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CHINA: Economic growth slumps to near three-decade low in Q2 2019 as U.S. tariffs bite. Read more:… https://t.co/a6LAurpiFY
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COMMODITIES: Commodity prices decline at the fastest rate so far this year in June as global growth outlook contin… https://t.co/f1wlOEktcj
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NATURAL GAS: FocusEconomics panelists see the spot price averaging USD 2.76 per MMBtu in Q4 2019, before climbing t… https://t.co/RqYvFXGctX
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Blog archive
- Which will be the most miserable economies in 2019?
- Only by freeing Nigeria from its dependence on oil can Buhari truly take Africa’s giant to the next level
- An Analysis of President Trump’s 2020 Budget
- The World's Fastest Growing Economies
- President Sebastian Piñera aims to bring his elder brother’s private pension system into the 21st century
- Brexit Scenarios: Consensus of 14 Economic Analysts
- Sweden just formed a new government and approved its 2019 budget: what does it mean for the economy?
- Which countries have the highest public debt levels?
- Predictions for the global economy in 2019 from 13 experts
- Gurdgiev: Predictions for the global economy in 2019
- Daniel Lacalle's ideas for 2019: Change of cycle.
- Vietnam Poised to Profit from Free Trade Agreement Opportunities
- Canada in 2019: Interview with a Top Economic Forecaster
- Pound Sterling 2019 Exchange Rate: Projections from Leading Analysts
- Expectations for Latin America’s Economy in 2019
- Ethiopia and Rwanda: From Destruction to Development
- Key commodities trends to look out for in 2019
- What drove Gulf neighbors to bail out Bahrain?
- The Four Financial Bubbles and Their Impact on the U.S. Economy
- The Poorest Countries in the World
- Italy: The sick man of Europe
- What does Bolsonaro's presidential win mean for Brazil's economic outlook?
- The World's Top 10 Largest Economies
- In Latin America, taxpayers are tapped to shoulder the burden of a bank bailout
- How and when will the next financial crisis happen? - 26 experts weigh in
- China and Africa: A partnership under the spotlight
- The conditions are ripe for a Global Financial Crisis 2.0
- Uncertainty, instability and fear haunt a generation of Argentinians
- 5 things: What to expect for Mexico's economy in 2019
- 5 things: Brazil's economic downturn and what to expect going forward
- Emerging Market Currency Crisis: Everything you need to know
- Which ASEAN countries are most exposed in the event of a U.S.-China trade war?
- 75 Top Economics Influencers to Follow
- Emerging Markets Economic Outlook 2018 and 2019
- The Faces Behind Latin America’s Key Institutions
- 2019 Economic Outlook for the Top Oil Producing Countries
- Is your cup of coffee about to get more expensive going in to 2019?
- The Economic Implications of an Aging Global Population
- Can the Wisdom of the Crowds predict the results of the 2018 World Cup?
- Railway Mania: The Largest Speculative Bubble You’ve Never Heard Of
- From Riches to Rags: Have Cryptocurrencies Crashed for Good?
- Investment looks to Latin America, but forecasts are not encouraging
- Turkey: Erdogan has cemented his grip on power - now what about the economy?
- How can Latin America’s business environment benefit from technological change?
- Mexico: A look at the past, present and future as elections yield AMLO victory
- Italy’s New Populist Government and the Eurozone: Prelude to a Crisis?
- Latin America moves toward increased integration as U.S. protectionism grows
- How can Latin America increase productivity without affecting the quality of employment?
- How will Saudi Arabia's economy benefit from lifting the women's driving ban?
- Which countries are the most prepared for the upcoming digital revolution?
- India Under Pressure from the U.S. on Trade Policy
- The Story of Steel
- Latin America is the World Leader in eCommerce Growth Despite Serious Challenges
- What the TPP means for trade in Latin America
- Elections in Russia: Analysis and Implications
- Nearly a Third of Latin Americans Have No Right to a Pension
- A Look at Healthcare Models Around the World
- Newly-elected Chilean President Sebastian Piñera faces a myriad of challenges - economic and otherwise
- The Economic Effects of Trade Protectionism
- Regional Disparity: The Dark Side of Inequality in Latin America
- Coal: The story of the world's most abundant fossil fuel
- Venezuela's Electoral Conundrum
- Gold: The Most Precious of Metals (Part 3)
- Trump's 1st Year: 95 Analysts Surveyed on U.S. Economy
- The Latest on China and What's in Store for 2018
- An in-depth look at the Eurozone’s booming economy and the challenges that lurk in the shadows
- Increasing poverty in Latin America takes a breather thanks to improving economic dynamics
- Is Spain doing enough to address its high youth unemployment rate?
- Has Latin America gone far enough in reducing barriers to international trade?
- Commodities Outlook: Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Lead & Tin
- 21 experts tell us what the future looks like for cryptocurrencies and blockchain
- Turkish lira plummets to all-time low on Erdogan’s monetary feud and tense U.S.-Turkey relations
- Copper: The first metal mastered by man
- Nigerian Economy Still Treading Water Thanks to Oil Sector
- The Mercosur-EU Free Trade Agreement: Obstacles & Opportunities
- Elections in Chile: What the results could mean for the economy
- QE’s Untold Story: A Chart That Fed Correspondents Need To Investigate
- Holland’s fragile one-seat majority government targets economic growth at the expense of fiscal sustainability
- South Africa: Economy at a tipping point?
- Latin American Commodities: What’s behind the increase in demand and prices?
- Is the UK really "shackled to a corpse"?
- Spain-Catalonia: 7 economic experts weigh in on how the situation will affect the outlook
- How well is Spain's labor market doing since the crisis?
- Which countries will have the highest and lowest inflation in 2017?
- How vulnerable is Latin America to economic crises today?
- Iron ore facts and common questions answered
- The bulging economic costs of obesity
- How much investment is needed to salvage Latin America’s crumbling infrastructure?
- A Look at the Potential Impact of Brexit on the Dutch Economy
- Emerging Markets Are Kicking Into Higher Gear In 2017
- Why is foreign direct investment in Latin America falling again?
- Are Central Banks Nationalising the Economy?
- Bounty or burden? The impact of refugees on European economies is far from clear
- What’s the future of U.S.-Latin America trade relations?
- Taxes or cutbacks? Latin America's challenge of sustaining spending without causing debt to skyrocket
- Are uranium prices making a comeback?
- Taxing the Economy: Achieving a Delicate Balance
- How will emerging market economies perform in 2017?
- How will Latin America’s upcoming lengthy election cycle affect the reform agenda and credit ratings?
- Chilean Economy in Focus: Interview with Senior Economist of the Chamber of Commerce of Santiago
- CEOs Rank Top Economies for Growth Opportunities
- The Mobile Ecosystem & Latin America's Economy
- Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy: Interview with Tim Cooper from BMI Research
- How will the Fed reduce its balance sheet & and how will the ECB end QE? - 19 economic experts weigh in
- Thoughts on "unwinding" QE from Frances Coppola
- The Fed and ECB at a crossroads: Unwinding QE
- Spain: The economy that continues to silence the critics
- Latin America: The Most Unequal Region in the World
- The History of OPEC: Has it been a Success?
- FocusEconomics Announces 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards Winners
- Latin America’s rising unemployment bucks nearly decade long trend
- Escape from the Central Bank Trap by Daniel Lacalle
- China's economic rebalancing act: What to look out for in 2017
- Driving Growth in Latin America: Challenges & Priorities
- Is the Global Economy Rebalancing?
- Commodity exporters face challenging times
- Recent Global Events Facilitate Mercosur-Pacific Alliance
- 23 economic experts weigh in: Why is productivity growth so low?
- Mexico's outlook as Trump nears 100-day mark
- Interview with Oxford Economics Senior Economist on implications of the possible outcomes of the French Presidential Election
- The anxiety of the small saver in a world of negative interest rates
- Brexit negotiations. Between Uncertainty and Urgency
- An Economic History of the EU from El Blog Salmón
- Baby Boomin': Implications of high population growth in Latin America
- Survey of International Economists Predicts a Le Pen Defeat in French Elections, Says Macron has Best Economic Plan
- Spain in a global context: developed economy with some challenges
- How much is crime costing Latin America?
- Predictions & Estimates from Economist Daniel Lacalle
- What economy will the new Dutch government inherit?
- “The data is not a true reflection of reality in India” Interview with Société Générale India Economist
- What are the prospects for Emerging Economies in 2017?
- What to expect in Asia for 2017
- Top Economics & Finance Blogs of 2017
- Latam to Resume Moderate Growth in 2017 but Important Risks Plague Outlook
- 4 Key European Elections That Will Impact the Economy in 2017
- How are security concerns and political chaos affecting Turkey’s economy?
- Global growth to edge up in 2017
- Set to breach targets again? Debt and deficit outlooks for Southern European Eurozone countries in 2016 & 2017
- What does Donald Trump mean for the U.S. economy?
- How will emerging markets perform in 2017?
- The economic impact of a break in U.S.-Philippines ties
- Trump election: Base metals surge due to infrastructure plan
- 5 updates on the Venezuelan economic crisis
- Canada: When your neighbor’s house is on fire…
- Short-term pain before long-term gain? A look at French labor reform and economic growth
- Asia: Unremarkable growth & unfulfilled promises?
- How India's latest monsoon is affecting the economy
- Innovation in Latin America: Potential Goes Untapped Due to Weak Economic Conditions
- Russian economy update in wake of OPEC deal announcement
- The Wisdom of the Crowds and the Consensus Forecast
- Can the peso predict the U.S. election results?
- There's no end in sight to the Venezuela crisis
- A Look at the European Union Political Calendar
- Survey of international economists shows uncertainty surrounding elections damaging U.S. growth prospects
- FocusEconomics partners with leading online statistics provider Statista
- China: Recent postive economic data may be papering over the cracks
- Sub-Saharan Africa's 2016 & 2017 growth rates
- The Italian Dilemma: Weak banks pose risk to already faltering domestic demand
- How much money do migrants from Latin America send home?
- The U.S.' (Not So) Mysterious Case of the Missing Men
- What to expect from the G20 economies by 2020
- The Pain in Spain: Robust GDP growth cannot mask the persistent structural deficit
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Blogroll
- Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog
- Marginal Revolution
- Morss Global Finance
- Observatorio Asia
- Observing Greece
- Of Markets & Men
- Punto de Vista Económico
- The Capital Spectator
- Trading Floor: Social trading, news and analysis
- True Economics
- Emre Deliveli's Blog on the Turkish Economy
- MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis
- Makrointelligenz
- Wolf Street
- Geopolitica italiana
- bAg (Blog de economía de la ALdEa Global)
- Stock Trader´s Almanac
- Real-World Economics Review Blog
- The Winkle Institute for Worldwide Economic Stability
- Econlog
- Dash of Insight
- Worthwhile Canadian Initiative
- Chaco Realidades
- Comentario Financiero
