FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
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How will emerging markets perform in 2016?
December 22, 2015
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Can Tunisia Combat Extremism with Economic Growth?
December 15, 2015
Tunisia’s important tourism sector has been drastically impacted by three high-profile terrorist attacks this year, the most recent of which took place in late November in downtown Tunis. As Tunisia ramps up security in its ongoing effort to combat militants within its own borders, thousands of Tunisians are believed to have taken up arms and joined opposition forces in Syria, mainly with Al-Nusra and the Islamic State (ISIL). Such extremism and attacks have devastating human costs, as well as far-reaching implications for economic growth. President Beji Caid Essebsi has declared a “war against terrorism” in response to the latest attacks; hopefully he will not overlook including pro-growth reforms in his arsenal.
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Ahead of the curve: yield curves and predictions
December 14, 2015
What do virtually all post-1950 U.S. recessions have in common? Naturally there are many answers to this question, but one interesting detail is that between four to six months prior to the recession, the difference in yields between 10-year treasury notes and the three-month U.S. Treasury bill yields was negative. That is to say, the yield curve was inverted. Since the relationship between output and the yield curve was discovered, the validity of the yield curve as a leading indicator has proven robust. Even beyond the United States, a litany of studies has demonstrated the ability of the yield curve to predict future output.
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Beyond the Commodities Boom – China’s Shifting Role in Africa
December 7, 2015
China’s meteoric rise in the past has been a boon to developing and advanced economies alike. Its seemingly insatiable consumption of raw materials destined for its rapidly-expanding urban centers and capital investments in a number of sectors helped to inflate what is often referred to as the “commodities super cycle” that has characterized the past 15 years. In an effort to secure such commodities, China has expanded its presence in sub-Saharan Africa, sending substantial sums of capital, expertise and workers to develop extraction industries and infrastructure in several countries. However, China’s rapid growth is unwinding, and its objectives in Africa are likely to reflect this fact. This month, Chinese leader Xi Jinping visits Zimbabwe and South Africa to engage in talks with African leaders.
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Global Growth Forecasts for 2016
December 1, 2015
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China’s Economic Slowdown: Two sides of the same coin
November 16, 2015
There has been an intense debate over the policies that the Chinese government should have implemented in order to have successfully overcome this summer’s economic soft patch and avoid a much-dreaded economic downturn. Regarding the real economy, while some suggested that the priority was to prop up weakening growth in the all-important manufacturing sector, others stressed that the key was to boost domestic consumption.
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When China sneezes who catches the cold?
November 9, 2015
Since the early 2000’s, China has grown into one of the world’s two main growth engines, along with the United States. This situation intensified during the global financial crisis and has remained unaltered in recent years. Therefore, any slowdown or economic turmoil in China has dramatic consequences worldwide. The recent lackluster situation in China’s property sector and less robust infrastructure spending at regional levels due to financial constraints have reduced demand for commodities. This situation has exerted further downward pressure on prices and hit growth among commodity-export-driven nations. Developed countries are also feeling the pain of weaker growth in China mainly due to lower purchases of consumer goods, including luxury items. Nevertheless, it is worth highlighting that China is now in a soft patch, which means weaker growth, but not declining economic activity (at least not for now).
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The Russian Economy Explained – A 3-Part Series (Part 3)
November 4, 2015
Originally posted in November 2015. Updated in November 2016.
The final installment of our three-part series on Russia consists of an examination of their current monetary policy, exchange rate policy, and fiscal policy.
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Will Buhari’s reform agenda for Nigeria be derailed by political inaction?
November 3, 2015
President Muhammadu Buhari beat Goodluck Jonathan in the March election, which was Nigeria’s first-ever peaceful political transition. That said, far from reaping the benefits of the “dividends of democracy”, the long delay in appointing the new cabinet led the country to a political stalemate and, consequently, to much-needed economic reforms being postponed.
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The Russian Economy Explained – A 3-Part Series (Part 2)
October 28, 2015
Originally posted in October 2015, Updated in November 2016.
In part two of a three part series on the economy of Russia, we cover Russia’s Balance of payments and detail their exports and imports and how they are currently impacting the economy.
Before starting part 2, If you missed it, check out Part 1 on Russia’s economic profile, which gives an overview of Russia’s economy starting from the fall of the Soviet Union until present day including analysis of assets, risks, economic growth, and inflation.
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