FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
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How will energy commodities perform this year?
April 21, 2016
As the second quarter of 2016 begins and those of us located in the northern hemisphere move out of winter and into spring, a sense of hope starts to creep in as the days become longer and lighter after months of darkness and cold. However, unfortunately for many, the low-commodity-price environment does not seem to be changing much with the seasons. Energy commodities, in particular, are continuing to see low-prices, which is why we have created a new infographic depicting our latest price forecasts for Brent Crude Oil, WTI Crude Oil, Thermal Coal, and Natural Gas, which are available in our FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Commodities report along with price forecasts and analysis on 29 other commodities in the energy, agricultural and metals sectors.
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What is really going on with oil prices?
April 20, 2016
As commodity prices have fallen globally over the last year, the one commodity that has stood out from the rest, which is often the case, has been crude oil. OPEC oil prices fell to a 14-year low on 20 January with the OPEC oil basket falling to USD 22.5. Many have cited the oversupply of oil as the reason for the price plummet, as well as uncertainty over the global economy resulting in decreased demand. The laws of supply and demand say that as supply increases and demand decreases, prices decrease. Despite the gradual decrease in prices over the last year, oil producing countries have continued with output at record high levels to gain as much market share as possible on competitors. The competition for market share even among fellow OPEC members was evident as production continued at record highs. Since February, however, a potential deal between Russia and key members of OPEC, including the unofficial leader Saudi Arabia, to freeze oil production at January output levels was announced to try to combat the low-oil price environment and stabilize prices at a higher level. Negotiations to finalize the deal happen in Doha on 17 April, but those ended without an agreement, despite many believing a deal was a foregone conclusion before the meeting even took place.
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Australia’s commodity currency at the end of the commodity super cycle
April 14, 2016
The names Pannawonica, Paraburdoo, Koolanooka and Koolyanobbing, may sound unfamiliar, and indeed these small communities are isolated geographically from the rest of the world in the remote hinterlands of the Western Australian outback. However, these communities are some of the first to be impacted by forces stemming from well outside of Australia’s borders. These communities, as well as many others across Australia, are major iron ore mining areas, and are first in line to feel the effects of the collapse of the decade-long commodities super cycle. Some analysts expect that the rest of the Australian economy will follow suit.
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What is the Difference between WTI and Brent Crude Oil?
February 22, 2016
Crude oil has had an eventful year thus far, with prices falling to historic lows, long-awaited production cuts that never happened, wildfires, and now Brexit has brought oil prices back into the media limelight. With that in mind we have written a little blog post here on the differences between Brent and WTI crude oil. If you are curious as to what sets various crude oils apart, especially Brent and WTI, this blog post will shed some light on the differences as well as explain a bit about the Crude Oil futures markets and what role Brent and WTI play in the global oil commodity trade. But, before getting into the specifics of Brent and WTI, it might be helpful to first go through what quality metrics differentiate crude oils from one another.
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FocusEconomics Launches Commodities Report with Price Forecasts for 33 Raw Materials
February 17, 2016
We are pleased to announce the publication of the new Commodities Consensus Forecast report. The report includes the latest price forecasts for 30 commodities in the energy, metals and agricultural sectors from leading local and global economic institutions, such as BMI Research, Goldman Sachs, Oxford Economics, Deutsche Bank and HSBC, to name just a few.
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Which are countries with best and worst unemployment rates in the Euro Area?
February 11, 2016
50 analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics expect Eurozone unemployment rate to average 10.4% this year:
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Which region contributes the most to global GDP growth?
February 3, 2016
Asia contributes the most to the World's GDP growth, followed by the countries from the G7. The Consensus view of analysts surveyed this month by FocusEconomics is that the global economy will expand 3.0% this year, which represents a 0.1 percentage points cut over the previous month:
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What impact could the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran have on Africa’s major oil exporters?
January 20, 2016
As Iran ordered a ramping up of production by 500,000 on Monday, Persian tankers were already filling their hulls with millions of barrels of low-sulphur crude, destined mostly for European markets. Although there are some factors restricting the accessibility of Iranian crude to foreign markets, especially given that U.S. institutions are still barred from Iranian oil transactions, Iran will want to regain market share it has either lost, or never had access to. This will most likely translate to more supply of high-quality hydrocarbons and downside pressure on prices.
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Which 15 countries will lead in growth in 2016? [Consensus Forecasts]
January 11, 2016
These economies are forecast to be the best performers in 2016 according to our poll of economists
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Q&A: What’s in store for Australia’s economy as 2016 kicks off?
January 10, 2016
We sat down with Economist Robert Hill to find out more about the outlook for the Australian economy in 2016. Here’s his view on what’s in store for Australia.
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