FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
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UK’s Economic Outlook Slashed in Brexit Aftermath
June 29, 2016
The EU Referendum results came as a shock to many last week with the immediate effects having reverberated across Europe and the world impacting global financial markets heavily. The immediate effects of the so-called ‘Brexit’ have been widely reported, however, what remains to be seen is the economic impact of the Brexit in the longer-term. That, of course, is still unknown, but the media consensus to date seems to be that the future of the UK’s economy is bleak.
Needless to say, we here at FocusEconomics have had a lot of work over the last few days since the UK voted to leave the EU last Thursday. We have frantically contacted our global network of economic analysts, investment banks, and think tanks to collect their updated forecasts in the wake of the Brexit vote. Luckily, we were able to collect quite a few to compile an up-to-date post-Brexit Consensus Forecast for the UK. Some of our analysts were also generous enough to gives a few quotes with their views on the situation.
Give this blog post a read through to get some of the highlights of our Brexit Economic Impact report where we detail the effect the Brexit has had on UK GDP growth forecasts accompanied by comments from leading economic institutions.
Also, don’t forget to have a look at our UK economic outlook page and our global economic outlook page for up-to-date economic data and analysis post-Brexit. Get a copy of our UK after the Brexit report here.
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Euro Area 2016 GDP (billions of Euros)
May 6, 2016
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the Euro Area totaled EUR 10,404 billion in 2015 and is expected to total EUR 10,607 billion by the end of this year. Analysts expect the Eurozone economy to grow a healthy 1.5% this year and 1.6% in 2017. However, the Eurozone is still facing a number of challenges and performing below its potential. High debt levels, a fragile banking sector and a persistent lack of inflationary pressure continues to impede the recovery of many economies in the region.
See below what analysts expect the GDP of each of the Euro Area countries to be by the end of 2016 (hover over the bubbles for more information):
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Gold: The Most Precious of Metals (Part 2)
May 3, 2016
Contents
In an effort to convey why gold is such a precious metal, in part one of this series, we provided a thorough explanation of the history of gold and the gold standard along with a discussion on the potential viability of the gold standard today. In part two, we can further our discussion on why gold is so unique by explaining how it is mined and processed and discuss how its unique physical properties make it one of the most useful metals. Finally, we end the post with a section on gold's importance to the global economy, the factors that set it apart from all other commodities, and how it can be classed as both a commodity and a monetary asset. If you like, you can click on the links to the left to skip ahead in the document.
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Emerging Markets 2016: Growth Divergence Continues
April 26, 2016
It has not been a great start to 2016 for emerging markets. Collapsing oil prices have undermined Russia’s fiscal sustainability, Brazil is struggling through a deep recession and political chaos, and the Chinese economy continues to slow, hurting growth prospects in other developing countries.
According to FocusEconomics’ Consensus Forecast, emerging economies as a whole are estimated to have grown 4.0% in 2015 and are projected to grow 4.0% combined this year. Although growth rates in general continue to be faster than those of developed economies, according to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report, they remain below the average of the past decade.
What’s in store for emerging markets for the rest of 2016? Have a look at our latest Consensus Forecasts and find out what the experts say about the key emerging economies this year.
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Gold: The Most Precious of Metals
April 26, 2016
When Hernán Cortes, the famous Spanish Conquistador, first came to the New World in the 16th century, he and his men encountered indigenous civilizations that had been established there for millennia. They had never interacted with each other. They were separated by a vast ocean, did not have a common language, culture or customs, yet the one thing that they did have in common was their insatiable appetite for gold. From the very beginning, something about gold attracted civilizations all over the world without those civilizations ever having made contact with each other. It has been a symbol of beauty, power, purity and accomplishment since its discovery. Not only does gold’s natural beauty make it so mysteriously precious, but it may also be the most useful metal in the world. It is a good conductor of electricity, it does not tarnish or oxidize, and it is extremely malleable allowing it to be worked with, pounded and shaped without breaking. It is so malleable, in fact, that it can be rolled thin enough to let light pass through it. Gold is also one of the few commodities that can also be thought of as a currency or monetary asset. Many currencies around the world used to be backed by gold until recently and, although the gold standard is long since abandoned, gold is still very effectively used as a safe haven asset in times of economic turmoil to preserve wealth. With all of that said, this series of blog posts on gold will seek to explain why it is such a precious metal, by giving a history, discussing its properties, the mining and production process, the uses for gold, the top gold producing countries and lastly explain its role as a traded commodity.
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How will energy commodities perform this year?
April 21, 2016
As the second quarter of 2016 begins and those of us located in the northern hemisphere move out of winter and into spring, a sense of hope starts to creep in as the days become longer and lighter after months of darkness and cold. However, unfortunately for many, the low-commodity-price environment does not seem to be changing much with the seasons. Energy commodities, in particular, are continuing to see low-prices, which is why we have created a new infographic depicting our latest price forecasts for Brent Crude Oil, WTI Crude Oil, Thermal Coal, and Natural Gas, which are available in our FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Commodities report along with price forecasts and analysis on 29 other commodities in the energy, agricultural and metals sectors.
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What is really going on with oil prices?
April 20, 2016
As commodity prices have fallen globally over the last year, the one commodity that has stood out from the rest, which is often the case, has been crude oil. OPEC oil prices fell to a 14-year low on 20 January with the OPEC oil basket falling to USD 22.5. Many have cited the oversupply of oil as the reason for the price plummet, as well as uncertainty over the global economy resulting in decreased demand. The laws of supply and demand say that as supply increases and demand decreases, prices decrease. Despite the gradual decrease in prices over the last year, oil producing countries have continued with output at record high levels to gain as much market share as possible on competitors. The competition for market share even among fellow OPEC members was evident as production continued at record highs. Since February, however, a potential deal between Russia and key members of OPEC, including the unofficial leader Saudi Arabia, to freeze oil production at January output levels was announced to try to combat the low-oil price environment and stabilize prices at a higher level. Negotiations to finalize the deal happen in Doha on 17 April, but those ended without an agreement, despite many believing a deal was a foregone conclusion before the meeting even took place.
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Australia’s commodity currency at the end of the commodity super cycle
April 14, 2016
The names Pannawonica, Paraburdoo, Koolanooka and Koolyanobbing, may sound unfamiliar, and indeed these small communities are isolated geographically from the rest of the world in the remote hinterlands of the Western Australian outback. However, these communities are some of the first to be impacted by forces stemming from well outside of Australia’s borders. These communities, as well as many others across Australia, are major iron ore mining areas, and are first in line to feel the effects of the collapse of the decade-long commodities super cycle. Some analysts expect that the rest of the Australian economy will follow suit.
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What is the Difference between WTI and Brent Crude Oil?
February 22, 2016
Crude oil has had an eventful year thus far, with prices falling to historic lows, long-awaited production cuts that never happened, wildfires, and now Brexit has brought oil prices back into the media limelight. With that in mind we have written a little blog post here on the differences between Brent and WTI crude oil. If you are curious as to what sets various crude oils apart, especially Brent and WTI, this blog post will shed some light on the differences as well as explain a bit about the Crude Oil futures markets and what role Brent and WTI play in the global oil commodity trade. But, before getting into the specifics of Brent and WTI, it might be helpful to first go through what quality metrics differentiate crude oils from one another.
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FocusEconomics Launches Commodities Report with Price Forecasts for 33 Raw Materials
February 17, 2016
We are pleased to announce the publication of the new Commodities Consensus Forecast report. The report includes the latest price forecasts for 30 commodities in the energy, metals and agricultural sectors from leading local and global economic institutions, such as BMI Research, Goldman Sachs, Oxford Economics, Deutsche Bank and HSBC, to name just a few.
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Featured Posts
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The World's Fastest Growing Economies
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China: Interview with Scotiabank
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Despite elevated geopolitical risks, oil prices are projected to fall this year
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Chile sails into unchartered waters after turbulent spring
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South Africa: Gold at the end of the rainbow?
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Hong Kong: 2020 outlook slashed as protests rumble on
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Israel: A land of milk and honey?
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Next year’s growth prospects for Latin America were slashed for the fifth month running in December. Find out more:… https://t.co/RL52gAn7nG
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Japan: Composite PMI jumps to a four-month high in January https://t.co/Mjy3JTqKyu
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Argentina: Consumer confidence ticks up in January but remains downbeat https://t.co/gdR70xdmQS
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Australia: Unemployment rate at nine-month low in December https://t.co/q6XRjRlO5B
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ECB keeps ultra-loose policy stance intact at first 2020 meeting; Lagarde launches strategic review https://t.co/TJeKx4HGRk
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