FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
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How much money do migrants from Latin America send home?
September 14, 2016
Remittances from around the world to Central and Latin America rose to over USD 65 billion last year. Mexico is the top destination for remittances – it received nearly USD 25 billion in 2015. Haiti and Honduras are the most dependent on money from abroad, which accounted for 24.4% and 18.1% of GDP in 2015, respectively.
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The U.S.' (Not So) Mysterious Case of the Missing Men
September 13, 2016
It’s been some time since the United States was considered to be amid the Great Recession, a period of general economic decline that spanned from the late 2000s until, depending on who you talk to or what source you are using, sometime in 2015. One of the big effects of the Great Recession, was very high unemployment in the US. At the height of the Great Recession, in October of 2009, unemployment peaked at 10%. Way back in January of this year, Timothy Taylor, the Conversable Economist, wrote a post on the unemployment rate falling and falling fast on its way to pre-Great Recession levels, “the unemployment rate in the last three years has fallen by more than even the most optimistic member of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee believed was likely.”
Fast forward to 2 September, the monthly jobs report was released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics that found that unemployment was at 4.9% for the third month in a row. So, the number has halved since the Great Recession, which sounds like great news, right? Not so fast. There are concerns that the statistic is masking a greater problem: The mystery of disappearing men from the workforce.
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What to expect from the G20 economies by 2020
September 5, 2016
Over the last few days, the world’s most powerful leaders have met in Hangzhou, China for the G20 summit. Economics has been at the center of discussions as the world economy has looked rather shaky over the last year.
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The Pain in Spain: Robust GDP growth cannot mask the persistent structural deficit
September 1, 2016
Spain’s robust GDP growth despite the ongoing political impasse has made the headlines time and time again. The panel of 35 analysts we surveyed for this month’s Consensus Forecast expect GDP to expand 2.8% in 2016, one of the fastest rates in the Eurozone this year, before decelerating to 2.1% in 2017. And yet both Spain’s Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (Airef) and the European Commission have warned in recent months that Spain is relying too heavily on GDP growth to reduce its deficit while neglecting much-needed progress with structural reforms to reduce its sizeable structural deficit (the part of the overall deficit which is adjusted for temporary measures and cyclical variations). This leaves it vulnerable to its deficit increasing in the future should economic conditions become unfavorable again.
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Assessing Vietnam's economy: key growth drivers and challenges
August 28, 2016
As many of the world's largest emerging economies were faltering earlier this year, namely China, Russia, and Brazil, Vietnam appeared to be one of the emerging market standouts. Since then, however, the Vietnamese economy has shifted into a lower gear as adverse weather conditions damaged a large share of agricultural output, which accounts for almost 20% of GDP. Following disappointing first and second quarter GDP readings, analysts now project Vietnam expanding 6.1% this year, which is substantially lower than the near 7% growth that was expected earlier in year. Despite the disappointing year thus far for Vietnam, FocusEconomics expects steady growth in the manufacturing and construction sectors to offset the impact of the lower agricultural yield and help the economy recover in the second half of the year. We recently sat down with our Vietnam expert economist Jean-Philippe Pourcelot to chat about how he views Vietnam's economic outlook, the key factors that will affect the country's economic growth in 2016 and how reforms could help Vietnam's government to improve FDI and foster a more business-friendly environment overall.
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[INFOGRAPHIC] Brazil Beyond Rio 2016
August 23, 2016
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What goes up, must come down: Sweden’s housing market post 2015
August 22, 2016
Low interest rates and a supply shortage have turned Sweden into one of the hottest housing markets in the world. Swedish house prices have risen faster than almost any other developed country. Prices for flats in Gothenburg, Sweden’s second largest city, have doubled since 2007 and other cities are not far behind. An increasing urban population, high economic growth and accommodative monetary policy have pushed up housing prices and spurred a property boom. However, Sweden may soon become a victim of its own success, as high prices for homes begin to restrain Sweden’s growth potential.
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The Oil Price Roller Coaster
August 17, 2016
Crude oil prices are notoriously volatile and perhaps never more so than this year. So, if you're going to ride the oil price roller coaster, download a free copy of our FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Commodities report to stay ahead of the curve here.
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Eurozone Slowdown Highly Likely in the Wake of Brexit
July 28, 2016
It’s been a little over a month since the UK voted to leave the European Union in one of the biggest and most unexpected political events to happen since the turn of the century and arguably going back even farther than that. Apart from the political shakeup this has caused, the impact of the Brexit has far reaching economic consequences as well. We here at FocusEconomics, needless to say, have been working tirelessly to bring you forecasts and analysis for the UK economy and the rest of the world since the unprecedented Brexit vote.
In the immediate aftermath of the vote we came out with new post-Brexit forecasts and analysis for the UK economy and a few weeks later we had a revised set of forecasts for the UK. Subsequently, we updated or forecasts and analysis with Brexit in mind for Latin America, the ASEAN region, East & South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Finally, without further ado, we have the all-important post-Brexit forecasts and outlook for the Eurozone economy. In the following post we present you with our updated forecasts and analysis for the Eurozone along with comments and individual forecasts from the likes of Danske Bank and BNP Paribas. We also have additional analysis on the Euro Area and our Global Economic Outlook, in case you’re interested in further reading.
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Colombia at a crossroads after historic FARC peace deal
July 21, 2016
The country traditionally associated with coffee, crude oil, drug cartels and deep-seated internal conflict, Colombia is turning over a new leaf. Whether the change is happening by design or by default, it must be said that while some of the recent developments in Colombia are welcome, others are concerning. President Santos and his political allies have managed to create a constitutionally-binding peace process that legally brings to an end the 52-year conflict with the Marxist rebel groups operating in the country. Colombia’s parallel economy in which rebel groups collected war taxes, operated drug cartels and engaged in kidnapping and extortion, could also be drawing to a close. This positive development promises to mark a turning point in the country’s economic story. Nevertheless, the economy is facing tumultuous times: a historic collapse in the price of commodities, particularly oil, has shocked Colombia’s external sector, resulting in a weaker peso, a higher current account deficit and a dent in government revenue. More recently, inclement weather has affected agricultural output and raised food prices, which has forced the Central Bank to undergo a drastic tightening cycle in order to bring inflation back under control.
These unprecedented factors are all impacting the economy in complex ways. FocusEconomics consulted Nelson Vera, Macro-Chief Economist at the Asociación Nacional de Instituciones Financieras (ANIF) for additional insight into Colombia’s economic dynamics. ANIF is the winner of the FocusEconomic’s best overall forecaster award for Colombia this year.
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Featured Posts
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Euro Area: Interview with HSBC
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South Africa: Interview with Investec
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Covid-19 And Remittances in Central America & The Caribbean
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India: Interview with Société Générale
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Chile: Interview with Gemines
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Iran: Interview with Steven Burke, Iran economist at FocusEconomics
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The World's Top 5 Largest Economies in 2023
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