FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
January 15, 2018
Daniel Lacalle, PhD, author of Escape from the Central Bank Trap, contributes a guest post to the FocusEconomics Insights blog. In this post, Daniel tells us what his predictions are for the global economy in 2018.
January 15, 2018
Emerging Markets have suffered in recent years due to low commodities prices and slower global demand, but analysts believe that this year will be brighter. In fact, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook that the higher global growth projection for this year and next, “stems from improvements in some large emerging market and low income economies that in 2016 were exceptionally stressed.”
Our economists expect that higher commodity prices, resilient global growth and still accommodative monetary policies will boost economic activity in many of the emerging markets, although this will not be the case across the board. Let’s take a closer look at what’s expected for some of these countries in the coming year:
January 3, 2018
Foreign direct investment (FDI) has played a crucial role in catalyzing Vietnam’s socio-economic development and its economic integration into the global scene since it started transitioning to a market-oriented model three decades ago. Easing restrictions for foreign investors encouraged a substantial mobilization of overseas capital into the strategically located economy. Investors were drawn to Vietnam’s enormous untapped potential promising high returns, along with a cheap workforce and high endowment of natural resources. A seismic shift in Vietnam’s economic structure from agriculture to industry, since the 1986 Doi Moi economic reforms were implemented, spurred a massive movement of workers from one industry to the other, encouraging the emergence of private domestic and foreign enterprises.
December 28, 2017
After having fallen for over ten years, the rates of poverty and extreme poverty increased again in a large part of Latin America in 2015 and 2016. But in 2017, thanks to the greater economic dynamism, the indices remained stable, according to the 2017 Social Panorama Report on Latin America, published by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
December 22, 2017
As Steve Hanke put it, the human condition inhibits a vast continuum between “happy” and “miserable.” When it comes to economics, misery tends to stem from high inflation and high unemployment. The best way to ensure happiness is to grow economically, but that is not easy with high inflation and unemployment.
The vast majority of countries report on economic indicators on a regular basis. Therefore, we can compare each nation to get an idea of how happy or miserable the people are in each of the nations.
Are you curious how happy or miserable your country is? In this post we attempt to give you an idea of which countries will be the most miserable (or happy) next year by using our projections for inflation and unemployment in 2018 for 126 countries to calculate their misery index score.
December 19, 2017
When it comes to the top national economies globally, although the order may shift around slightly from one year to the next, the key players are usually the same. At the top of the list is the United States of America, which according to Investopedia, has been at the head of the table going all the way back to 1871. However, as has been the case for a good few years now, China is gaining on the U.S., with some even claiming that China has already overtaken the U.S. as the world’s Number 1 economy.
Nonetheless, going by nominal GDP measured in U.S. dollars alone, the U.S. maintains its spot followed by China and Japan. In this post we take a look at the world’s top economies according to our Consensus Forecasts for 2018 nominal GDP. We also discuss how the top economies change when looking at GDP per capita along with a highlight on emerging markets and their potential to catch up to the big players in the not too distant future.
December 18, 2017
The situation for young people is becoming less bleak, but significant challenges remain
When twenty-one-year-old Laura Avizanda graduated from a Spanish university with a degree in business last summer, she regarded the future with trepidation. Her reaction was understandable; Spain's labor market has been an extremely hostile environment for young people in recent years.
But Laura was pleasantly surprised at how quickly she found employment related to her studies. "I started looking in early September," she says. "By mid-September, I’d found a job." Her classmates have had similar experiences, she adds.
The economic situation of Spain's young people is gradually improving, as the economy continues to recover from one of the worst crises in recent history. Firms are hiring again. Youth unemployment, while still painfully high, has dropped from its 2013 peak of over 50%. The number of young people emigrating is slowly dwindling.
December 14, 2017
Trade with Latin America is becoming easier, according to the index that measures trade facilitation in 21 Latin American countries, which represented 95% of regional merchandise trade in 2016. Latin America's result again increased two points with respect to the average two years prior, and received a score of 69%. The index measures the "the simplification, standardization and harmonization of procedures and associated information flows required to move goods from seller to buyer and to make payment in order to reduce the time and cost of trade." The latest progress is outlined in the report Trade Facilitation and Paperless Trade Implementation in Latin America and the Caribbean, from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
December 11, 2017
As 2018 approaches, we take a look back at developments in the commodities markets over the past year and asked our economists what the future may hold for various key economies (Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Lead and Tin). We sat down with some of our economists to get their insight into the following questions:
December 4, 2017
It’s been a little over nine years since Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous creator (or creators) of Bitcoin, published the paper entitled Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System. Written off for many years, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have since risen to prominence and economists, traders, financial gurus, central bankers and other financial authorities around the world are taking notice.
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2018 inflation forecast for Central America revised down 0.1 percentage points this month to 3.4%. https://t.co/vCeYnGSmsE
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Political noise and economic imbalances threaten Latin America's economic outlook. Read more:… https://t.co/Wq3z1BuYKF
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Israel growth forecast for 2018 downgraded 0.1% to 3.3%. Find out why: https://t.co/phgVA8YdW7
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- What the TPP means for trade in Latin America
- Elections in Russia: Analysis and Implications
- How Student Loan Debt Affects the Economy
- 2018 & 2019 Economic Outlook for the Top Oil Producing Countries
- Nearly a Third of Latin Americans Have No Right to a Pension
- A Look at Healthcare Models Around the World
- The Poorest Countries in the World
- Newly-elected Chilean President Sebastian Piñera faces a myriad of challenges - economic and otherwise
- The Economic Effects of Trade Protectionism
- Regional Disparity: The Dark Side of Inequality in Latin America
- Coal: The story of the world's most abundant fossil fuel
- Gold: The Most Precious of Metals (Part 3)
- Venezuela's Electoral Conundrum
- Trump's 1st Year: 95 Analysts Surveyed on U.S. Economy
- The Latest on China and What's in Store for 2018
- An in-depth look at the Eurozone’s booming economy and the challenges that lurk in the shadows
- China’s growing influence on the Latin American economy
- Top Economics & Finance Blogs of 2018
- How Latin America emerged from recession in 2017
- Is this the beginning of the end for Bitcoin?
- Risks and Opportunities for 2018 - Daniel Lacalle
- Emerging Markets 2018 Economic Outlook
- The role of FDI in Vietnam’s socio-economic development
- Increasing poverty in Latin America takes a breather thanks to improving economic dynamics
- What will be the most miserable economies in 2018?
- The World's Top 10 Largest Economies
- Is Spain doing enough to address its high youth unemployment rate?
- Has Latin America gone far enough in reducing barriers to international trade?
- Commodities Outlook: Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Lead & Tin
- 21 experts tell us what the future looks like for cryptocurrencies and blockchain
- Turkish lira plummets to all-time low on Erdogan’s monetary feud and tense U.S.-Turkey relations
- Copper: The first metal mastered by man
- The Mercosur-EU Free Trade Agreement: Obstacles & Opportunities
- Nigerian Economy Still Treading Water Thanks to Oil Sector
- Elections in Chile: What the results could mean for the economy
- QE’s Untold Story: A Chart That Fed Correspondents Need To Investigate
- Holland’s fragile one-seat majority government targets economic growth at the expense of fiscal sustainability
- South Africa: Economy at a tipping point?
- Latin American Commodities: What’s behind the increase in demand and prices?
- Is the UK really "shackled to a corpse"?
- Spain-Catalonia: 7 economic experts weigh in on how the situation will affect the outlook
- How well is Spain's labor market doing since the crisis?
- Which countries will have the highest and lowest inflation in 2017?
- How vulnerable is Latin America to economic crises today?
- Iron ore facts and common questions answered
- The bulging economic costs of obesity
- How much investment is needed to salvage Latin America’s crumbling infrastructure?
- A Look at the Potential Impact of Brexit on the Dutch Economy
- Emerging Markets Are Kicking Into Higher Gear In 2017
- Why is foreign direct investment in Latin America falling again?
- Bounty or burden? The impact of refugees on European economies is far from clear
- Are Central Banks Nationalising the Economy?
- What’s the future of U.S.-Latin America trade relations?
- Taxes or cutbacks? Latin America's challenge of sustaining spending without causing debt to skyrocket
- Are uranium prices making a comeback?
- Taxing the Economy: Achieving a Delicate Balance
- How will Latin America’s upcoming lengthy election cycle affect the reform agenda and credit ratings?
- How will emerging market economies perform in 2017?
- Chilean Economy in Focus: Interview with Senior Economist of the Chamber of Commerce of Santiago
- CEOs Rank Top Economies for Growth Opportunities
- The Mobile Ecosystem & Latin America's Economy
- Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy: Interview with Tim Cooper from BMI Research
- How will the Fed reduce its balance sheet & and how will the ECB end QE? - 19 economic experts weigh in
- Thoughts on "unwinding" QE from Frances Coppola
- The Fed and ECB at a crossroads: Unwinding QE
- Spain: The economy that continues to silence the critics
- Latin America: The Most Unequal Region in the World
- The History of OPEC: Has it been a Success?
- FocusEconomics Announces 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards Winners
- Latin America’s rising unemployment bucks nearly decade long trend
- Escape from the Central Bank Trap by Daniel Lacalle
- China's economic rebalancing act: What to look out for in 2017
- Driving Growth in Latin America: Challenges & Priorities
- Is the Global Economy Rebalancing?
- Commodity exporters face challenging times
- Recent Global Events Facilitate Mercosur-Pacific Alliance
- 23 economic experts weigh in: Why is productivity growth so low?
- Mexico's outlook as Trump nears 100-day mark
- Interview with Oxford Economics Senior Economist on implications of the possible outcomes of the French Presidential Election
- The anxiety of the small saver in a world of negative interest rates
- Brexit negotiations. Between Uncertainty and Urgency
- An Economic History of the EU from El Blog Salmón
- Baby Boomin': Implications of high population growth in Latin America
- Survey of International Economists Predicts a Le Pen Defeat in French Elections, Says Macron has Best Economic Plan
- Spain in a global context: developed economy with some challenges
- How much is crime costing Latin America?
- Predictions & Estimates from Economist Daniel Lacalle
- What economy will the new Dutch government inherit?
- “The data is not a true reflection of reality in India” Interview with Société Générale India Economist
- What are the prospects for Emerging Economies in 2017?
- What to expect in Asia for 2017
- Top Economics & Finance Blogs of 2017
- Latam to Resume Moderate Growth in 2017 but Important Risks Plague Outlook
- 4 Key European Elections That Will Impact the Economy in 2017
- How are security concerns and political chaos affecting Turkey’s economy?
- Global growth to edge up in 2017
- Set to breach targets again? Debt and deficit outlooks for Southern European Eurozone countries in 2016 & 2017
- What does Donald Trump mean for the U.S. economy?
- How will emerging markets perform in 2017?
- The economic impact of a break in U.S.-Philippines ties
- Trump election: Base metals surge due to infrastructure plan
- 5 updates on the Venezuelan economic crisis
- Canada: When your neighbor’s house is on fire…
- Short-term pain before long-term gain? A look at French labor reform and economic growth
- Asia: Unremarkable growth & unfulfilled promises?
- How India's latest monsoon is affecting the economy
- Russian economy update in wake of OPEC deal announcement
- Innovation in Latin America: Potential Goes Untapped Due to Weak Economic Conditions
- The Wisdom of the Crowds and the Consensus Forecast
- Can the peso predict the U.S. election results?
- There's no end in sight to the Venezuela crisis
- A Look at the European Union Political Calendar
- Survey of international economists shows uncertainty surrounding elections damaging U.S. growth prospects
- FocusEconomics partners with leading online statistics provider Statista
- China: Recent postive economic data may be papering over the cracks
- Sub-Saharan Africa's 2016 & 2017 growth rates
- The Italian Dilemma: Weak banks pose risk to already faltering domestic demand
- How much money do migrants from Latin America send home?
- The U.S.' (Not So) Mysterious Case of the Missing Men
- What to expect from the G20 economies by 2020
- The Pain in Spain: Robust GDP growth cannot mask the persistent structural deficit
- Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog
- Marginal Revolution
- Morss Global Finance
- Observatorio Asia
- Observing Greece
- Of Markets & Men
- Punto de Vista Económico
- The Capital Spectator
- Trading Floor: Social trading, news and analysis
- True Economics
- Emre Deliveli's Blog on the Turkish Economy
- MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis
- Wolf Street
- Geopolitica italiana
- bAg (Blog de economía de la ALdEa Global)
- Stock Trader´s Almanac
- Real-World Economics Review Blog
- The Winkle Institute for Worldwide Economic Stability
- Dash of Insight
- Worthwhile Canadian Initiative
- Chaco Realidades
- Comentario Financiero