FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
December 21, 2018
Predicting the future evolution of the UK’s key economic variables is fraught with uncertainty, and this is particularly true in the case of the pound, which has already been on a merry dance since the 2016 Brexit referendum.
With Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement floundering, the British parliament in the throes of the worst political crisis in decades and time running out fast, the outcome of the Brexit process is anyone’s guess. May’s deal? A Norway-style arrangement? No deal? Or even no-Brexit? All bets are off.
Following a sharp selloff in the immediate aftermath of the vote, the pound then clawed back some value. But in recent weeks, as the 29 March EU departure date looms ever larger in the rearview mirror with no political solution on the horizon, sterling has begun to sag—a process which is likely to continue in the coming months as markets grow more ever more jittery about the prospect of no deal.
December 18, 2018
2019 is poised to be a better year for the Latin American economy after a tough 2018 characterized by a chaotic and noisy election cycle, a sharp decline in sentiment for emerging-market assets and a U-turn toward global protectionism. Next year, regional growth (excluding Venezuela) is expected to improve to 2.3% from the 1.7% projected this year. Strengthening momentum in Brazil thanks to an improving labor market, less political noise and the faded impact of the truckers’ strike will chiefly fuel the region’s acceleration, while Argentina should drag less on growth after this year’s hard economic adjustment. To a lesser extent, faster growth in Chile and Peru will also boost regional growth.
December 10, 2018
Few countries in modern memory have suffered as much economic destruction and human misery as Ethiopia and Rwanda. In the mid-1990s, both ranked among the poorest nations in the world, with GDP per capita of less than USD 150 dollars. At that time, both had recently emerged from bloody civil wars which left millions dead, ravaged infrastructure, and—in the case of Ethiopia—unleashed devastating famine. The economic outlook made grim reading. Yet fast forward just 25 years and, against all the odds, they are arguably the two most economically dynamic countries in the whole of Africa. Growth rates are the envy of the rest of the continent (around 10% and 7% year-on-year in Ethiopia and Rwanda respectively over the last decade), poverty has plummeted, and Ethiopian famine has been well and truly consigned to the past.
December 7, 2018
With 2018 coming to a close and 2019 rapidly approaching, we thought it would be a good idea to ask our economists a few questions regarding key commodities about trends they saw in 2018 and what they project for 2019. Below are their answers:
December 6, 2018
In early October, news broke that Bahrain had reached a financial support agreement (FSA) with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, with the first tranche expected to be transferred before the end of the year. The deal should help to alleviate Bahrain’s distressed financial sector and support the country’s currency peg, following deteriorating macroeconomic fundamentals after years of suppressed oil prices and exacerbated by extreme volatility in emerging markets this year. The consequent low level of international reserves and dire fiscal situation have sparked fears among investors over the country’s ability to service its debt and to maintain the peg.
November 30, 2018
By Guest Author:
Professor Arthur S. Guarino, MBA, MSSc, JD, Rutgers University, Dept. of Finance & Economics
While the U.S. macroeconomy is growing at a healthy rate with low unemployment, moderate inflation, and stable increases in its gross domestic product, there are four possible bubbles that could have devastating effects if they burst. These bubbles −car loans, credit card debt, student loans, and the stock market −are growing and may burst if there is another financial crisis or a black swan.
November 19, 2018
GDP per capita is often considered an indicator of the standard of living of a given country, as it reflects the average wealth of each person residing in a country. It is therefore the standard method used to compare how poor or wealthy countries are in relation to each other. With 2018 coming to a close, we decided to take a look at our forecasts for GDP per capita from 2019 to 2023 for the 127 countries we cover to get an idea of what countries are the poorest currently and which will be making a leap toward becoming wealthier in the coming years. The projections used in this study are Consensus Forecasts based on the individual forecasts of over 1000 world renowned investment banks, economic think tanks and professional economic forecasting firms.
November 13, 2018
Despite boasting the eighth-largest economy in the world, growth in Italy has stagnated for more than two decades. Economist Massimo Bassetti give us his six reasons for Italy’s weak economic growth over the last few decades:
November 8, 2018
Jair Bolsonaro will take the reins of Brazil’s economy on 1 January, after winning 55% of the vote in the second-round of the presidential election held on 28 October. The congressman and former army captain beat Workers’ Party candidate Fernando Haddad and will be the country’s first right-wing president in almost 15 years. Markets reacted positively to the news, with the Bovespa stock index hitting a record high and the real strengthening the day after the election. With election uncertainty finally lifted from the shoulders of Latin America’s largest economy, FocusEconomics asked some of our panelists to comment on what a Bolsonaro presidency means for their economic forecasts.
November 8, 2018
When it comes to the top national economies globally, although the order may shift around slightly from one year to the next, the key players are usually the same. At the top of the list is the United States of America, which according to Investopedia, has been at the head of the table going all the way back to 1871. However, as has been the case for a good few years now, China is gaining on the U.S., with some even claiming that China has already overtaken the U.S. as the world’s Number 1 economy.
Nonetheless, going by nominal GDP measured in U.S. dollars alone, the U.S. maintains its spot followed by China and Japan. In this post we take a look at the world’s top economies according to our Consensus Forecasts for 2019 nominal GDP. We also discuss how the top economies change when looking at GDP per capita along with a highlight on emerging markets and their potential to catch up to the big players in the not too distant future.
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PANAMA: Lower global growth and a further deterioration of U.S-China relations remain key downside risks to the out… https://t.co/Ir0XtPaDzD
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EAST ASIA: The East Asian economy is set to decelerate this year as export-driven economies will feel the pain from… https://t.co/N9U48VZnvm
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URUGUAY: The economy shrank 0.2% year-on-year in Q1, contrasting the fourth quarters 0.6% expansion and marking th… https://t.co/9xxtKiOq8D
12 hours ago
🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM: Boris Johnson is likely to become Conservative leader—and by extension prime minister—in the com… https://t.co/moL8vowY1U
14 hours ago
17 hours ago
- Which will be the most miserable economies in 2019?
- Only by freeing Nigeria from its dependence on oil can Buhari truly take Africa’s giant to the next level
- An Analysis of President Trump’s 2020 Budget
- The World's Fastest Growing Economies
- President Sebastian Piñera aims to bring his elder brother’s private pension system into the 21st century
- Brexit Scenarios: Consensus of 14 Economic Analysts
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- Predictions for the global economy in 2019 from 13 experts
- Gurdgiev: Predictions for the global economy in 2019
- Daniel Lacalle's ideas for 2019: Change of cycle.
- Vietnam Poised to Profit from Free Trade Agreement Opportunities
- Canada in 2019: Interview with a Top Economic Forecaster
- Pound Sterling 2019 Exchange Rate: Projections from Leading Analysts
- Expectations for Latin America’s Economy in 2019
- Ethiopia and Rwanda: From Destruction to Development
- Key commodities trends to look out for in 2019
- What drove Gulf neighbors to bail out Bahrain?
- The Four Financial Bubbles and Their Impact on the U.S. Economy
- The Poorest Countries in the World
- Italy: The sick man of Europe
- What does Bolsonaro's presidential win mean for Brazil's economic outlook?
- The World's Top 10 Largest Economies
- In Latin America, taxpayers are tapped to shoulder the burden of a bank bailout
- How and when will the next financial crisis happen? - 26 experts weigh in
- China and Africa: A partnership under the spotlight
- The conditions are ripe for a Global Financial Crisis 2.0
- Uncertainty, instability and fear haunt a generation of Argentinians
- 5 things: What to expect for Mexico's economy in 2019
- 5 things: Brazil's economic downturn and what to expect going forward
- Emerging Market Currency Crisis: Everything you need to know
- Which ASEAN countries are most exposed in the event of a U.S.-China trade war?
- 75 Top Economics Influencers to Follow
- Emerging Markets Economic Outlook 2018 and 2019
- The Faces Behind Latin America’s Key Institutions
- 2019 Economic Outlook for the Top Oil Producing Countries
- Is your cup of coffee about to get more expensive going in to 2019?
- The Economic Implications of an Aging Global Population
- Can the Wisdom of the Crowds predict the results of the 2018 World Cup?
- Railway Mania: The Largest Speculative Bubble You’ve Never Heard Of
- From Riches to Rags: Have Cryptocurrencies Crashed for Good?
- Investment looks to Latin America, but forecasts are not encouraging
- Turkey: Erdogan has cemented his grip on power - now what about the economy?
- How can Latin America’s business environment benefit from technological change?
- Mexico: A look at the past, present and future as elections yield AMLO victory
- Italy’s New Populist Government and the Eurozone: Prelude to a Crisis?
- Latin America moves toward increased integration as U.S. protectionism grows
- How can Latin America increase productivity without affecting the quality of employment?
- How will Saudi Arabia's economy benefit from lifting the women's driving ban?
- Which countries are the most prepared for the upcoming digital revolution?
- India Under Pressure from the U.S. on Trade Policy
- The Story of Steel
- Latin America is the World Leader in eCommerce Growth Despite Serious Challenges
- What the TPP means for trade in Latin America
- Elections in Russia: Analysis and Implications
- Nearly a Third of Latin Americans Have No Right to a Pension
- A Look at Healthcare Models Around the World
- Newly-elected Chilean President Sebastian Piñera faces a myriad of challenges - economic and otherwise
- The Economic Effects of Trade Protectionism
- Regional Disparity: The Dark Side of Inequality in Latin America
- Coal: The story of the world's most abundant fossil fuel
- Venezuela's Electoral Conundrum
- Gold: The Most Precious of Metals (Part 3)
- Trump's 1st Year: 95 Analysts Surveyed on U.S. Economy
- The Latest on China and What's in Store for 2018
- An in-depth look at the Eurozone’s booming economy and the challenges that lurk in the shadows
- Increasing poverty in Latin America takes a breather thanks to improving economic dynamics
- Is Spain doing enough to address its high youth unemployment rate?
- Has Latin America gone far enough in reducing barriers to international trade?
- Commodities Outlook: Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Lead & Tin
- 21 experts tell us what the future looks like for cryptocurrencies and blockchain
- Turkish lira plummets to all-time low on Erdogan’s monetary feud and tense U.S.-Turkey relations
- Copper: The first metal mastered by man
- Nigerian Economy Still Treading Water Thanks to Oil Sector
- The Mercosur-EU Free Trade Agreement: Obstacles & Opportunities
- Elections in Chile: What the results could mean for the economy
- QE’s Untold Story: A Chart That Fed Correspondents Need To Investigate
- Holland’s fragile one-seat majority government targets economic growth at the expense of fiscal sustainability
- South Africa: Economy at a tipping point?
- Latin American Commodities: What’s behind the increase in demand and prices?
- Is the UK really "shackled to a corpse"?
- Spain-Catalonia: 7 economic experts weigh in on how the situation will affect the outlook
- How well is Spain's labor market doing since the crisis?
- Which countries will have the highest and lowest inflation in 2017?
- How vulnerable is Latin America to economic crises today?
- Iron ore facts and common questions answered
- The bulging economic costs of obesity
- How much investment is needed to salvage Latin America’s crumbling infrastructure?
- A Look at the Potential Impact of Brexit on the Dutch Economy
- Emerging Markets Are Kicking Into Higher Gear In 2017
- Why is foreign direct investment in Latin America falling again?
- Are Central Banks Nationalising the Economy?
- Bounty or burden? The impact of refugees on European economies is far from clear
- What’s the future of U.S.-Latin America trade relations?
- Taxes or cutbacks? Latin America's challenge of sustaining spending without causing debt to skyrocket
- Are uranium prices making a comeback?
- Taxing the Economy: Achieving a Delicate Balance
- How will emerging market economies perform in 2017?
- How will Latin America’s upcoming lengthy election cycle affect the reform agenda and credit ratings?
- Chilean Economy in Focus: Interview with Senior Economist of the Chamber of Commerce of Santiago
- CEOs Rank Top Economies for Growth Opportunities
- The Mobile Ecosystem & Latin America's Economy
- Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy: Interview with Tim Cooper from BMI Research
- How will the Fed reduce its balance sheet & and how will the ECB end QE? - 19 economic experts weigh in
- Thoughts on "unwinding" QE from Frances Coppola
- The Fed and ECB at a crossroads: Unwinding QE
- Spain: The economy that continues to silence the critics
- Latin America: The Most Unequal Region in the World
- The History of OPEC: Has it been a Success?
- FocusEconomics Announces 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards Winners
- Latin America’s rising unemployment bucks nearly decade long trend
- Escape from the Central Bank Trap by Daniel Lacalle
- China's economic rebalancing act: What to look out for in 2017
- Driving Growth in Latin America: Challenges & Priorities
- Is the Global Economy Rebalancing?
- Commodity exporters face challenging times
- Recent Global Events Facilitate Mercosur-Pacific Alliance
- 23 economic experts weigh in: Why is productivity growth so low?
- Mexico's outlook as Trump nears 100-day mark
- Interview with Oxford Economics Senior Economist on implications of the possible outcomes of the French Presidential Election
- The anxiety of the small saver in a world of negative interest rates
- Brexit negotiations. Between Uncertainty and Urgency
- An Economic History of the EU from El Blog Salmón
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- Survey of International Economists Predicts a Le Pen Defeat in French Elections, Says Macron has Best Economic Plan
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- Predictions & Estimates from Economist Daniel Lacalle
- What economy will the new Dutch government inherit?
- “The data is not a true reflection of reality in India” Interview with Société Générale India Economist
- What are the prospects for Emerging Economies in 2017?
- What to expect in Asia for 2017
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- Latam to Resume Moderate Growth in 2017 but Important Risks Plague Outlook
- 4 Key European Elections That Will Impact the Economy in 2017
- How are security concerns and political chaos affecting Turkey’s economy?
- Global growth to edge up in 2017
- Set to breach targets again? Debt and deficit outlooks for Southern European Eurozone countries in 2016 & 2017
- What does Donald Trump mean for the U.S. economy?
- How will emerging markets perform in 2017?
- The economic impact of a break in U.S.-Philippines ties
- Trump election: Base metals surge due to infrastructure plan
- 5 updates on the Venezuelan economic crisis
- Canada: When your neighbor’s house is on fire…
- Short-term pain before long-term gain? A look at French labor reform and economic growth
- Asia: Unremarkable growth & unfulfilled promises?
- How India's latest monsoon is affecting the economy
- Innovation in Latin America: Potential Goes Untapped Due to Weak Economic Conditions
- Russian economy update in wake of OPEC deal announcement
- The Wisdom of the Crowds and the Consensus Forecast
- Can the peso predict the U.S. election results?
- There's no end in sight to the Venezuela crisis
- A Look at the European Union Political Calendar
- Survey of international economists shows uncertainty surrounding elections damaging U.S. growth prospects
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- Sub-Saharan Africa's 2016 & 2017 growth rates
- China: Recent postive economic data may be papering over the cracks
- The Italian Dilemma: Weak banks pose risk to already faltering domestic demand
- How much money do migrants from Latin America send home?
- The U.S.' (Not So) Mysterious Case of the Missing Men
- What to expect from the G20 economies by 2020
- The Pain in Spain: Robust GDP growth cannot mask the persistent structural deficit
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- The Capital Spectator
- Trading Floor: Social trading, news and analysis
- True Economics
- Emre Deliveli's Blog on the Turkish Economy
- MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis
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- Geopolitica italiana
- bAg (Blog de economía de la ALdEa Global)
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- Real-World Economics Review Blog
- The Winkle Institute for Worldwide Economic Stability
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