FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
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Brexit negotiations. Between Uncertainty and Urgency
April 5, 2017
”If I cannot have you the way I want you, I do not want you at all” Dr. Feelgood
Brexit has been launched. Mainstream consensus is going through the typical phases of anger (“this cannot be”), shock (“only uneducated, old, and fascists have voted exit”), denial (“it will be stopped by parliament or the commons”) and now we approach, slowly, to the phase of acceptance.
And there it is: Article 50.
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An Economic History of the EU from El Blog Salmón
April 4, 2017
*Guest blog post from El Blog Salmón
60 years ago the seed of the European Union was sown, these are the economic milestones that have taken place since…
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Baby Boomin': Implications of high population growth in Latin America
April 3, 2017
The demographic pressure of skyrocketing population growth is most evident today in the region’s urban areas.
Latin America is home to about 625 million people, about 1 in 10 of the world's population, which now has 7 billion inhabitants. It is expected that within a generation there will be 9 billion people in the world. This high population level, however, is very recent; less than three hundred years ago the total population of the Earth was just 1 billion people, of which only 10 million lived in the Latin America region.
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Survey of International Economists Predicts a Le Pen Defeat in French Elections, Says Macron has Best Economic Plan
March 29, 2017
A new survey by FocusEconomics released Tuesday shows that the majority of the 22 international and local macroeconomic experts polled believe that uncertainty surrounding the elections in France is not affecting the economy as a Le Pen defeat is likely.
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Spain in a global context: developed economy with some challenges
March 28, 2017
Guest blog post by Neven Valev, Ph.D., Founder and Head of Research at www.theglobaleconomy.com.
Comparing countries is a useful exercise as it puts the national economies in global context. Whether or not a country is developed in economic and financial terms is a question that makes sense only in relative terms. This article discusses the Spanish economy as an example of how to make such an international comparison. The focus is on four key areas: economic development, financial system development, rule of law, and international trade and investment. Spain is interesting as it is a large developed economy that does, however, face challenges.
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How much is crime costing Latin America?
March 27, 2017
Violence is Latin Americans’ main concern
Latin America is the most violent region on the planet. The World Health Organization (WHO) believes that crime and violence are at epidemic levels, and despite the region’s recent robust economic growth, crime has continued to grow. This should be Latin Americans’ main concern, more than unemployment or the economic situation, yet the economic costs of crime and violence have thus far not received sufficient attention.
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Predictions & Estimates from Economist Daniel Lacalle
March 22, 2017
Read a guest post from Economist Daniel Lacalle, in which he provides some insight on five very important issues that are likely to impact the global economic outlook for the foreseeable future.
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What economy will the new Dutch government inherit?
March 16, 2017
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s liberal VVD party has won again despite losing seats, keeping the far right in a largely ineffectual position. The Netherlands is one of Europe’s best performing economies, which surely helped see reason ultimately triumph over populism after a campaign dominated by much political noise from Geert Wilders’ anti-immigration party. And yet voters still punished the outgoing coalition heavily. Rutte’s party lost about a quarter of its support and its traditional coalition partner all but collapsed, with the Green-Left party making substantial gains to emerge as an unexpected victor of the night and a potential kingmaker in coalition negotiations. On the face of it the Dutch economy is doing remarkably well, yet voters were clearly not entirely happy with the political status quo. While the Liberals do battle behind the scenes to form a working majority in the fragmented Dutch parliament, we take a look at the economic situation that the new government will inherit.
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“The data is not a true reflection of reality in India” Interview with Société Générale India Economist
March 16, 2017
Doubts over the true growth pace of India’s economy have plagued market analysts since the government changed its GDP methodology in 2015 and were recently exacerbated by the growth figures for the October-December period. While a sharp slowdown in the October to December period was expected due to a cash crunch caused by the government’s demonetization, official figures showed that growth barely skipped a beat and the economy expanded 7.0% annually—one of the best results in the world. Against this confusing backdrop, we spoke with one of our panel members, India Economist Kunal Kumar Kundu from Société Générale, about the effects of the government’s demonetization, his take on the GDP figures and the overall picture for the economy going forward.
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Is rising uncertainty driving Mexico’s economic outlook? Interview with Chief Economist of the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico
February 22, 2017
The Mexican economy got off to a weak start to the year, following a mild improvement in the final quarter of 2016. A preliminary estimate showed that GDP increased 2.2% year-on-year in Q4, causing the economy to expand 2.3% in the full year 2016. The result is below the 2.6% GDP growth achieved in 2015 and while the headline figure does not appear to be particularly alarming, the underlying trend suggests that Mexico’s economic growth is not robust enough. The rising uncertainty related to the unclear path that trade and immigration policies will follow during the Trump administration will continue to drive Mexico’s future economic growth. Against this backdrop, we spoke with one of our panel members Chief Economist Eduardo Vázquez from the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico about the recent developments in the Mexican economy and what he expects for this year.
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Featured Posts
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Euro Area: Interview with HSBC
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Iran: Interview with Steven Burke, Iran economist at FocusEconomics
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The World's Top 5 Largest Economies in 2023
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