FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
July 4, 2017
Where do CEOs see the most important prospects for business growth in the next 12 months? The U.S., China and Germany top the list, according to PwC Global’s 20th annual CEO Survey of nearly 1,400 CEOs from around the world. The UK, Japan, Brazil, India, Mexico, France and Australia round out the list of the top 10.
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We took closer look at what economic analysts see on the horizon for these economies in the next 12 months:
June 28, 2017
Mobile technologies and services generated 5% of Latin America's GDP in 2015 and nearly 2 million jobs, direct and indirect. In addition, the mobile ecosystem has contributed USD 40 billion to the public coffers for tax purposes, according to the report, The Mobile Economy Latin America and the Caribbean 2016, from the GSMA which represents the interests of mobile operators around the world.
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June 26, 2017
We recently sat down with Tim Cooper, Global Economist, with BMI Research, to find out what his views are for the global economy in the coming years given the recent upgrade to the Consensus Forecast and healthier dynamics in Q1. In this interview, Tim comments on growth in Europe and what the future political panorama might look like; when the ECB is likely to raise rates and if it will extend its bond-buying program; to what extent the outcome of the recent UK election will affect Brexit negotiations; and whether we should be more optimistic on the Chinese economy. Tim also gives his insight on what's driving the acceleration in the U.S. economy and potential future Fed moves, whether the Trump Administration poses a real threat to the Mexican economy, and the main challenges Latin America is facing today.
How will the Fed reduce its balance sheet & and how will the ECB end QE? - 19 economic experts weigh in
June 21, 2017
If you have been following the financial and economic news of late, you’ll have probably heard the term “quantitative easing” quite a bit. You’ll likely have also heard a lot about central banks “unwinding" QE. Well, that is because after years of quantitative easing and otherwise accomodative monetary policy from some major central banks, it seems as though they are now looking to reverse course as global economic growth appears to be firming and inflation rising. This article will cover how the Fed and the ECB are likely to “unwind" QE. At the moment, however, there are more questions than there are answers, so we asked 18 economic experts for their thoughts on the matter. But before we get into that, to understand what unwinding QE really means, we'll have to explain what quantitative easing actually entails.
June 19, 2017
Major central banks around the world, like the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, are either on their way or at the very least contemplating reducing their balance sheets and raising interest rates after years of accomodative monetary policy. The Fed is further along in the process, aggressively tightening monetary policy having just last week raised interest rates for the third time in as many quarters.
Its plan to unwind its massive balance sheet of USD 4.5 billion accumulated during its six-year quantitative easing program from 2008 to 2014 will be put into action soon as well. The ECB, which began its own QE program in 2015, seems closer to ending QE with each monthly meeting as Eurozone inflation rises and economic growth firms up.
Both banks are at a crossroads as their respective decisions could be disastrous or come at just the right time. Recently, FocusEconomics contacted Frances Coppola, a regular contributor to Forbes and the author of the Coppola Comment finance & economics blog to get her comments on how both central banks should go about "unwinding QE."
June 13, 2017
Last week, the European Central Bank dropped the easing bias from its communique, while the Federal Reserve's FOMC is meeting on 13-14 June with speculation high that they will raise rates yet again. After years of quantitative easing and low interest rates, the Fed and, to a lesser extent, the ECB appear to be ready to get out. Both central banks are at a crossroads as the decision to unwind QE could prove to be fatal or come at just the right time.
We asked Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev, who runs the blog True Economics as well as the website MacroView, for his thoughts on the matter. More specifically, how exactly will the Fed unwind its multi-trillion dollar balance sheet without severely upsetting the bond and equity markets and how will the ECB, which is still stuck in a quantitative easing cycle, be able to bring it to an end without plunging Eurozone countries into yet another financial crisis?
June 9, 2017
One of the original PIGS, the Spanish economy continues to silence its critics, growing quarter after quarter. And in what is starting to become familiar territory for the Southern European country, the economy started 2017 off with a bang, dispelling fears of an abrupt slowdown in economic activity that some had expected due to the fading of several tailwinds.
June 6, 2017
Latin America has the highest level of inequality in the world despite having made notable gains
Income inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean declined substantially between 2002 and 2014. This is important because inequality is directly related to poverty reduction. If inequality remains stable, poverty can only be reduced by rising incomes, but if it falls, this increases the effect of increased incomes, which makes poverty even lower. In fact, an improvement in income distribution can reduce poverty, even though it does not increase incomes.
May 26, 2017
Vienna, Austria is home to some of the most picturesque buildings and monuments in Europe, but there is one very important building in the city center that you would be forgiven for missing. That's the OPEC headquarters. Although perhaps not the greatest tourist attraction in Vienna, the headquarters building gives off an aura of organization and unity. However, one could argue that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is anything but.
May 25, 2017
We are pleased to announce the winners of our 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards. The Awards recognize the most accurate forecasters for the main macroeconomic indicators across 87 countries and 29 commodity prices in 2016. Details of the awards and the list of winners are available at: www.focus-economics.com/awards.
To identify the top economic forecasters, FocusEconomics assessed the accuracy of the forecasts submitted by over 350 institutions to its Consensus Forecast survey over the course of 24 months. Among the winning institutions are the world’s most renowned international banks and economic research firms such as BMI Research, Capital Economics, Citigroup Global Markets, Deutsche Bank, EIU, HSBC, JPMorgan and Oxford Economics, along with many others.
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