FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
February 22, 2018
We’re back with another post in our commodities explainer series. This time we take on coal, a commodity that has received a lot of attention in recent years; mostly negative attention because of its effects on the environment. Fossil fuels are referred to as dirty fuels for industrial purposes and power generation, and coal is thought to be the dirtiest of them all. With so much attention placed on the environment in recent years, largely due to the climate change issue, coal has taken much of the flack. Nonetheless, coal is projected to continue to be produced and consumed at a healthy rate in the next few decades despite its bad rap. In this post we give you a comprehensive overview of coal:
February 21, 2018
by Francisco Rodríguez, Chief Economist at Torino Capital LLC
Most parties in Venezuela’s main opposition coalition, the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD), have decided to sit out the country’s May elections, according to public statements issued by some of the parties as well as the announcement made by MUD spokesperson Angel Oropeza on February 21, in which he said that they could not participate in a “fraudulent, illegitimate” presidential election unless electoral conditions change. 
Although Oropeza said that all parties that are part of the MUD signed the statement, more moderate sectors of the opposition appear likely to participate. At the present moment, the most probable scenario appears to be one in which President Nicolás Maduro will face an independent candidate supported by some minority parties, with the MUD calling on its supporters to abstain in the elections.
In this scenario, President Maduro will be facing an opposition field that will be split between abstentionists and those favoring participation. This is certainly one of the most favorable settings that the government could have hoped for and raises the possibility that Maduro could be re-elected for a second six-year term without overtly manipulating the vote count. On the other hand, we argue that given the results of recent opinion polls, there is also a significant probability that Maduro could lose the election on these terms.
In this discussion, we begin by exploring the rationale for the decisions taken by key actors and then go on to map the potential scenarios that could arise from the electoral results.
February 21, 2018
Gold production in many countries, especially in developing or emerging markets, has declined in recent years as the global economy has largely improved since the global financial crisis. Many mining operations have shut down or downsized significantly. However, prices have been increasing since 2016 as safe haven buying has increased. In part 3 of our series on gold, we begin with a section explaining why the price of gold has been fluctuating in recent years. This is followed by a section on the history and news on gold production in each of the top gold producing economies globally in 2017 according to the United States Geological Survey as well as the 2018 economic outlook for each according to the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
February 6, 2018
It's been just over one year since President of the United States Donald J. Trump took office and what a year it has been. Are you curious what the next year has in store? We recently produced a new special report on the U.S. economy where we interviewed 95 economic analysts for their views on the state of the economy one year into the Trump presidency, and what they believe is in store for the coming years. Below you can find a sample of some of the quotes from the world renowned economic analysts that participated in the survey. You can also download the special report containing insight and analysis on key economic issues for free here.
February 2, 2018
China has been one of the fastest growing economies over the last few decades and is now the second largest economy in the world, just behind the United States. However, after years of astronomical economic growth, the economy is currently in the middle of a “managed” slow down, due in large part to Chinese authorities’ desire to avoid the economy overheating. So what is going on in China currently and what is in store for 2018? Head of Economic Research Ricard Torné reports.
February 1, 2018
Fresh off its best year of growth in over a decade, the outlook for the Eurozone economy appears brighter than ever. Unemployment is falling, confidence is sky-high and even the economies on the periphery are starting to show improvement. However, several challenges are still facing the bloc, including Brexit, divergences across labor markets and a lack of agreement on the next steps for the Union. Against this backdrop, we talked with Stephen Brown, European Economist at Capital Economics, about his view of the Eurozone economy.
January 26, 2018
In recent decades, China’s impact on global growth has showed no signs of waning; this was especially evident in the years following the global financial crisis. In fact, the country's influence on Latin America is growing stronger by the year, and this is due primarily to three main factors.
January 24, 2018
It's 2018, and we're back with our list of the Top 101 Economics and Finance blogs. If you didn't see last year's list, check it out here. As was the case last year, 2018's list was compiled by the FocusEconomics Insights Blog with the help of the FocusEconomics team of economists. The criteria for inclusion in the list was simply that there were regular entries in the blog during the last year and that they are English-language blogs. In the future we'd like to compile a list of foreign-language blogs.
This year there is an eclectic mix of economics blogs from the Keynsian school to the Chicago school to the Austrian school and everything in between and around. We've included blogs on microeconomics, macroeconomics, sports economics and even water economics. Politics and public policy are again common themes in many of these blogs as the impact of politics and policy plays an important role in economics and vice versa. Let's also not forget the intersection between economics and finance. There are some purely finance and investment related blogs in this list as well as blogs that do a bit of it all.
January 24, 2018
After two years of economic contraction, Latin America and the Caribbean have begun to recover, thanks primarily to private consumption. The region’s economy contracted in 2016, but grew 0.9% in 2017, a positive result although it was nowhere near the global growth rate of over 3%. The World Bank’s foresees regional growth doubling this year and hitting 2.6% in 2019, which would be more inline with the global growth rate. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast poll of hundreds of analysts worldwide foresees growth in Latin America coming in at 2.4% in 2018 and projects an improvement to 2.7% in 2019.
January 19, 2018
On Tuesday, 16 January, almost all major cryptocurrencies fell in a market slump that continued into Wednesday. Bitcoin, the king of all cryptocurrencies, dropped below USD 10,000, which was almost 50% below its December 2017 peak, after the market entered a second day of a sell-off. According to CoinMarketCap.com, the combined value of over 1,400 cryptocurrencies in circulation fell to USD 460 billion from around USD 800 billion at the start of the month. The causes of the sell-off are not entirely clear, however, some have speculated that the threat of a regulatory crackdown on cryptocurrencies by some governments may have had something to do with it.
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2018 inflation forecast for Central America revised down 0.1 percentage points this month to 3.4%. https://t.co/vCeYnGSmsE
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Political noise and economic imbalances threaten Latin America's economic outlook. Read more:… https://t.co/Wq3z1BuYKF
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Israel growth forecast for 2018 downgraded 0.1% to 3.3%. Find out why: https://t.co/phgVA8YdW7
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- What the TPP means for trade in Latin America
- How Student Loan Debt Affects the Economy
- Elections in Russia: Analysis and Implications
- 2018 & 2019 Economic Outlook for the Top Oil Producing Countries
- Nearly a Third of Latin Americans Have No Right to a Pension
- A Look at Healthcare Models Around the World
- The Poorest Countries in the World
- Newly-elected Chilean President Sebastian Piñera faces a myriad of challenges - economic and otherwise
- The Economic Effects of Trade Protectionism
- Regional Disparity: The Dark Side of Inequality in Latin America
- Coal: The story of the world's most abundant fossil fuel
- Gold: The Most Precious of Metals (Part 3)
- Venezuela's Electoral Conundrum
- Trump's 1st Year: 95 Analysts Surveyed on U.S. Economy
- The Latest on China and What's in Store for 2018
- An in-depth look at the Eurozone’s booming economy and the challenges that lurk in the shadows
- China’s growing influence on the Latin American economy
- Top Economics & Finance Blogs of 2018
- How Latin America emerged from recession in 2017
- Is this the beginning of the end for Bitcoin?
- Risks and Opportunities for 2018 - Daniel Lacalle
- Emerging Markets 2018 Economic Outlook
- The role of FDI in Vietnam’s socio-economic development
- Increasing poverty in Latin America takes a breather thanks to improving economic dynamics
- What will be the most miserable economies in 2018?
- The World's Top 10 Largest Economies
- Is Spain doing enough to address its high youth unemployment rate?
- Has Latin America gone far enough in reducing barriers to international trade?
- Commodities Outlook: Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Lead & Tin
- 21 experts tell us what the future looks like for cryptocurrencies and blockchain
- Turkish lira plummets to all-time low on Erdogan’s monetary feud and tense U.S.-Turkey relations
- Copper: The first metal mastered by man
- The Mercosur-EU Free Trade Agreement: Obstacles & Opportunities
- Nigerian Economy Still Treading Water Thanks to Oil Sector
- Elections in Chile: What the results could mean for the economy
- QE’s Untold Story: A Chart That Fed Correspondents Need To Investigate
- Holland’s fragile one-seat majority government targets economic growth at the expense of fiscal sustainability
- South Africa: Economy at a tipping point?
- Latin American Commodities: What’s behind the increase in demand and prices?
- Is the UK really "shackled to a corpse"?
- Spain-Catalonia: 7 economic experts weigh in on how the situation will affect the outlook
- How well is Spain's labor market doing since the crisis?
- Which countries will have the highest and lowest inflation in 2017?
- How vulnerable is Latin America to economic crises today?
- Iron ore facts and common questions answered
- The bulging economic costs of obesity
- How much investment is needed to salvage Latin America’s crumbling infrastructure?
- A Look at the Potential Impact of Brexit on the Dutch Economy
- Emerging Markets Are Kicking Into Higher Gear In 2017
- Why is foreign direct investment in Latin America falling again?
- Are Central Banks Nationalising the Economy?
- Bounty or burden? The impact of refugees on European economies is far from clear
- What’s the future of U.S.-Latin America trade relations?
- Taxes or cutbacks? Latin America's challenge of sustaining spending without causing debt to skyrocket
- Are uranium prices making a comeback?
- Taxing the Economy: Achieving a Delicate Balance
- How will Latin America’s upcoming lengthy election cycle affect the reform agenda and credit ratings?
- How will emerging market economies perform in 2017?
- Chilean Economy in Focus: Interview with Senior Economist of the Chamber of Commerce of Santiago
- CEOs Rank Top Economies for Growth Opportunities
- The Mobile Ecosystem & Latin America's Economy
- Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy: Interview with Tim Cooper from BMI Research
- How will the Fed reduce its balance sheet & and how will the ECB end QE? - 19 economic experts weigh in
- Thoughts on "unwinding" QE from Frances Coppola
- The Fed and ECB at a crossroads: Unwinding QE
- Spain: The economy that continues to silence the critics
- Latin America: The Most Unequal Region in the World
- The History of OPEC: Has it been a Success?
- FocusEconomics Announces 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards Winners
- Latin America’s rising unemployment bucks nearly decade long trend
- Escape from the Central Bank Trap by Daniel Lacalle
- China's economic rebalancing act: What to look out for in 2017
- Driving Growth in Latin America: Challenges & Priorities
- Is the Global Economy Rebalancing?
- Commodity exporters face challenging times
- Recent Global Events Facilitate Mercosur-Pacific Alliance
- 23 economic experts weigh in: Why is productivity growth so low?
- Mexico's outlook as Trump nears 100-day mark
- Interview with Oxford Economics Senior Economist on implications of the possible outcomes of the French Presidential Election
- The anxiety of the small saver in a world of negative interest rates
- Brexit negotiations. Between Uncertainty and Urgency
- An Economic History of the EU from El Blog Salmón
- Baby Boomin': Implications of high population growth in Latin America
- Survey of International Economists Predicts a Le Pen Defeat in French Elections, Says Macron has Best Economic Plan
- Spain in a global context: developed economy with some challenges
- How much is crime costing Latin America?
- Predictions & Estimates from Economist Daniel Lacalle
- What economy will the new Dutch government inherit?
- “The data is not a true reflection of reality in India” Interview with Société Générale India Economist
- What are the prospects for Emerging Economies in 2017?
- What to expect in Asia for 2017
- Top Economics & Finance Blogs of 2017
- Latam to Resume Moderate Growth in 2017 but Important Risks Plague Outlook
- 4 Key European Elections That Will Impact the Economy in 2017
- How are security concerns and political chaos affecting Turkey’s economy?
- Global growth to edge up in 2017
- Set to breach targets again? Debt and deficit outlooks for Southern European Eurozone countries in 2016 & 2017
- What does Donald Trump mean for the U.S. economy?
- How will emerging markets perform in 2017?
- The economic impact of a break in U.S.-Philippines ties
- Trump election: Base metals surge due to infrastructure plan
- 5 updates on the Venezuelan economic crisis
- Canada: When your neighbor’s house is on fire…
- Short-term pain before long-term gain? A look at French labor reform and economic growth
- Asia: Unremarkable growth & unfulfilled promises?
- How India's latest monsoon is affecting the economy
- Innovation in Latin America: Potential Goes Untapped Due to Weak Economic Conditions
- Russian economy update in wake of OPEC deal announcement
- The Wisdom of the Crowds and the Consensus Forecast
- Can the peso predict the U.S. election results?
- There's no end in sight to the Venezuela crisis
- A Look at the European Union Political Calendar
- Survey of international economists shows uncertainty surrounding elections damaging U.S. growth prospects
- FocusEconomics partners with leading online statistics provider Statista
- China: Recent postive economic data may be papering over the cracks
- Sub-Saharan Africa's 2016 & 2017 growth rates
- The Italian Dilemma: Weak banks pose risk to already faltering domestic demand
- How much money do migrants from Latin America send home?
- The U.S.' (Not So) Mysterious Case of the Missing Men
- What to expect from the G20 economies by 2020
- The Pain in Spain: Robust GDP growth cannot mask the persistent structural deficit
- Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog
- Marginal Revolution
- Morss Global Finance
- Observatorio Asia
- Observing Greece
- Of Markets & Men
- Punto de Vista Económico
- The Capital Spectator
- Trading Floor: Social trading, news and analysis
- True Economics
- Emre Deliveli's Blog on the Turkish Economy
- MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis
- Wolf Street
- Geopolitica italiana
- bAg (Blog de economía de la ALdEa Global)
- Stock Trader´s Almanac
- Real-World Economics Review Blog
- The Winkle Institute for Worldwide Economic Stability
- Dash of Insight
- Worthwhile Canadian Initiative
- Chaco Realidades
- Comentario Financiero