What's Vaccine Economics?
Click to enlarge image
This has had a massive impact on the economies’ respective outlooks—as seen through the evolution of GDP forecasts since May. Turkey’s economic outlook continues to improve and high frequency data points to further surprises on the upside, while the Philippines’ deteriorating outlook is littered with headwinds. Although an array of factors has been at play in recent months, the overarching narrative has been dominated by vaccine availability. Our panel of experts sees GDP expanding 6.9% in Turkey and 4.7% in the Philippines in 2021.
Insights from Our Analyst Network
Commenting on the Philippines’ economic prospects, Nicholas Mapa, a senior economist at ING, noted:
“The resumption of lockdowns in April and in August have derailed the economic recovery with the economy backtracking by 1.3% in 2Q. We can expect this trend to continue in the second half of the year. [..] Fiscal stimulus may also be warranted to reverse the economic downturn but it appears that the authorities will cut back on spending to preserve debt metrics after the recent Fitch outlook revision.”
Commenting on the current state of play in Turkey, analysts at JPMorgan noted:
“Turkey recorded a surprising 3.7% (SAAR) GDP gain in Q2 2021 as service-sector activity expanded strongly. With mobility rebounding further this quarter and tourism quite strong, service-sector activity is continuing its recovery. [..] High-frequency data support the case for continued strong growth. As a result of all these factors and of the upside revision to 1Q data, we have raised our 2021 GDP growth forecast to 8.4% (yoy) from 6.8%. We keep the 2022 forecast unchanged at 3.4%, but the risks to this forecast are to the upside especially if there are early elections.”
Our Latest Analysis
- Central bank interest in cryptocurrencies is rising. In our latest insight piece, we examine the current state of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and what they could mean for the economy.
- Israel recently announced its 2022 budget, which if approved would be the first new budget since 2019, following years of political infighting. Our Economist Oliver Reynolds has more:
- German elections are scheduled for 26 September, with polling numbers suggesting an extremely tight race. Our economist Jan Lammersen has the latest:
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of FocusEconomics S.L.U. Views, forecasts or estimates are as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice. This report may provide addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, other internet websites. FocusEconomics S.L.U. takes no responsibility for the contents of third party internet websites.
Author: Steven Burke, Economist
Date: September 9, 2021
Featured Posts
-
The Euro area’s labor market: A bright spot on a gloomy horizon
-
Are we heading for an emerging market debt crisis?
-
Will the Fed’s rate hikes lead to a recession?
-
Inflation: how high will it go?
-
Euro area prospects grow bleaker: Is there light at the end of the tunnel?
-
Covid impact on East Asia's GDP
-
Iranian nuclear deal held hostage by Russia
Tags
GDP Russia European Union Asean Tunisia Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation Colombia Cryptocurrency Unemployment rate Bitcoin chile Africa Exchange Rate United Kingdom Precious Metals Commodities Palladium Housing Market Commodities Gold Turkey Investment Eastern Europe Banking Sector Argentina Asia TPP IMF CIS Countries Israel Vietnam Company News Political Risk Cannabis South Africa Ukraine Nordic Economies Asian Financial Crisis Oil Copper oil prices election centralbanks India China Forex Economic Crisis Italy USA Resource Curse Healthcare Lagarde United States UK Major Economies Economists Australia G7 precious metals Iran Japan Mexico Canadian Economy Venezuela Costa Rica; GDP; Budget Central America Germany OPEC Nigeria interview Exports Greece scotiabank France Portugal Spain Base Metals Draghi Trade Emerging Markets Consensus Forecast digitalcurrencies Eurozone MENA Base Metals Commodities Brexit Economic Growth (GDP) Energy Commodities Latin America Brazil Economic Debt Budget deficit TPS Canada Euro Area Agricultural Commodities public debt economic growth InfographicTwitter @FocusEconomics
-
Consumer prices have been pushed up by elevated commodity prices, particularly for grain and oil due to the war in… https://t.co/SKqbBR5eDY
21 hours ago
-
Asean’s economy has gone from strength to strength over the last two decades. In our latest insight piece, we look… https://t.co/pknIpLIGYJ
23 hours ago
-
We are happy to announce that ING, Goldman Sachs, Moody's Analytics, E2 Economia, Citi, Banco Itaú, HSBC, TD Securi… https://t.co/DRJQc0j00k
4 days ago
-
Asia will be the best-performing world region economically in 2022, with India, the Philippines and Vietnam expecte… https://t.co/45botJr7G3
5 days ago
-
Congratulations to Oxford Economics, Fitch Solutions, JP Morgan, EIU, EFG Hermes and Econometrix for being awarded… https://t.co/qqQGL5fbov
5 days ago