Blog posts tagged by tag: Turkey
Guest Author: Daniel Solomon, Economist, Euromonitor International
Turkey’s economy has deteriorated dramatically during the summer. The Turkish lira crashed by 33% in August 2018, bringing the total depreciation for 2018 to around 70%. Inflation in August reached 17.9% year-on-year, and the central bank raised its key interest rate from 8% to 17.75% during the summer. Both consumer and business confidence have dropped sharply. In September, Turkey’s central bank hiked interest rates once again to 24%.
The Turkish proverb “Zararın neresinden dönülse kârdır” can be loosely translated as “reducing losses at any point is always profitable ”. Simply put, it means that if one is on the wrong track, then the best course of action is to perform a U-turn, however painful or chastening it may be in the short run.
Economists and investors who have followed the tumultuous developments in Turkey in recent weeks must surely be hoping for the government and Central Bank to take the message to heart. Over the last month the lira has collapsed, driven by geopolitical tension with the U.S. and loose fiscal and monetary policy. This has led input costs to rocket and is saddling corporates with an ever heftier external debt burden.
24 June marked the culmination of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s long-held ambition: to become the most powerful Turkish leader since Atatürk, the man who founded the Republic of Turkey almost a century ago. His crushing victory in presidential and parliamentary elections ushers in a new chapter in the country’s history, cementing the shift to a presidential system of government which will place unprecedented power into the hands of one man. Erdogan will now be able to rule by decree, appoint ministers and senior judges, dissolve parliament and declare a state of emergency. In short, the levers of state are his to command.
The Turkish lira (TRY) came under intense pressure in late November as political strain with the U.S. intensified and tensions between President Erdogan and Central Bank officials regarding the country’s monetary policy path going forward became more acute. The latest slump in the value of the lira followed renewed pressure by President Erdogan on the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s (CBRT) current policy stance. Erdogan argued in mid-November that Bank officials were on “the wrong path”, stressing that high interest rates were hindering economic growth and fueling higher inflation expectations. This was, however, at odds with the overarching view of analysts, who underlined the need for Turkey to tighten monetary conditions in a bid to rein in soaring consumer prices.
The consequences of July’s coup attempt, numerous terrorist attacks, a weak currency and heightened political uncertainty took a toll on the Turkish economy in the third quarter of 2016. Revised data show that GDP contracted for the first time in seven years, disappointing the markets and contrasting the previous quarter’s expansion. On balance, FocusEconomics panelists expect that the economy will expand 2.7% in 2017, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate.
Click the image to open full-size infographic
TagsEuro AreaConsensus ForecastAfricaBitcoinExchange RateBase Metals CommoditiesPortugalHousing MarketGreeceEurozoneGoldInvestmentUSAoil pricesHealthcareBrazilArgentinaInfographicAustraliaCompany NewsOPECVietnamSouth AfricaIMFChinaVenezuelaJapanPrecious Metals CommoditiesMexicoColombiaTPPInflationItalyelectionSub-Saharan AfricaIranprecious metalsTradeSpainEastern EuropeLatin AmericaCryptocurrencyNordic EconomiesAsiaMajor EconomiesEconomic Growth (GDP)TurkeyUnemployment rateUnited KingdomRussiaG7OilFranceEuropean UnionIndiaUnited StatesCommoditiesForexBrexitAgricultural CommoditiesUKGermanyCanadaBanking SectorUkraineMENAEmerging MarketsEnergy CommoditiesTunisiaEconomic Debt
PANAMA: Lower global growth and a further deterioration of U.S-China relations remain key downside risks to the out… https://t.co/Ir0XtPaDzD
5 hours ago
EAST ASIA: The East Asian economy is set to decelerate this year as export-driven economies will feel the pain from… https://t.co/N9U48VZnvm
6 hours ago
URUGUAY: The economy shrank 0.2% year-on-year in Q1, contrasting the fourth quarters 0.6% expansion and marking th… https://t.co/9xxtKiOq8D
7 hours ago
🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM: Boris Johnson is likely to become Conservative leader—and by extension prime minister—in the com… https://t.co/moL8vowY1U
9 hours ago
12 hours ago
- Which will be the most miserable economies in 2019?
- Only by freeing Nigeria from its dependence on oil can Buhari truly take Africa’s giant to the next level
- An Analysis of President Trump’s 2020 Budget
- The World's Fastest Growing Economies
- President Sebastian Piñera aims to bring his elder brother’s private pension system into the 21st century
- Brexit Scenarios: Consensus of 14 Economic Analysts
- Sweden just formed a new government and approved its 2019 budget: what does it mean for the economy?
- Which countries have the highest public debt levels?
- Predictions for the global economy in 2019 from 13 experts
- Gurdgiev: Predictions for the global economy in 2019
- Daniel Lacalle's ideas for 2019: Change of cycle.
- Vietnam Poised to Profit from Free Trade Agreement Opportunities
- Canada in 2019: Interview with a Top Economic Forecaster
- Pound Sterling 2019 Exchange Rate: Projections from Leading Analysts
- Expectations for Latin America’s Economy in 2019
- Ethiopia and Rwanda: From Destruction to Development
- Key commodities trends to look out for in 2019
- What drove Gulf neighbors to bail out Bahrain?
- The Four Financial Bubbles and Their Impact on the U.S. Economy
- The Poorest Countries in the World
- Italy: The sick man of Europe
- The World's Top 10 Largest Economies
- What does Bolsonaro's presidential win mean for Brazil's economic outlook?
- In Latin America, taxpayers are tapped to shoulder the burden of a bank bailout
- How and when will the next financial crisis happen? - 26 experts weigh in
- China and Africa: A partnership under the spotlight
- The conditions are ripe for a Global Financial Crisis 2.0
- Uncertainty, instability and fear haunt a generation of Argentinians
- 5 things: What to expect for Mexico's economy in 2019
- 5 things: Brazil's economic downturn and what to expect going forward
- Emerging Market Currency Crisis: Everything you need to know
- Which ASEAN countries are most exposed in the event of a U.S.-China trade war?
- 75 Top Economics Influencers to Follow
- Emerging Markets Economic Outlook 2018 and 2019
- The Faces Behind Latin America’s Key Institutions
- 2019 Economic Outlook for the Top Oil Producing Countries
- Is your cup of coffee about to get more expensive going in to 2019?
- The Economic Implications of an Aging Global Population
- Can the Wisdom of the Crowds predict the results of the 2018 World Cup?
- Railway Mania: The Largest Speculative Bubble You’ve Never Heard Of
- From Riches to Rags: Have Cryptocurrencies Crashed for Good?
- Investment looks to Latin America, but forecasts are not encouraging
- Turkey: Erdogan has cemented his grip on power - now what about the economy?
- How can Latin America’s business environment benefit from technological change?
- Mexico: A look at the past, present and future as elections yield AMLO victory
- Italy’s New Populist Government and the Eurozone: Prelude to a Crisis?
- Latin America moves toward increased integration as U.S. protectionism grows
- How can Latin America increase productivity without affecting the quality of employment?
- How will Saudi Arabia's economy benefit from lifting the women's driving ban?
- Which countries are the most prepared for the upcoming digital revolution?
- India Under Pressure from the U.S. on Trade Policy
- The Story of Steel
- Latin America is the World Leader in eCommerce Growth Despite Serious Challenges
- What the TPP means for trade in Latin America
- Elections in Russia: Analysis and Implications
- Nearly a Third of Latin Americans Have No Right to a Pension
- A Look at Healthcare Models Around the World
- The Economic Effects of Trade Protectionism
- Newly-elected Chilean President Sebastian Piñera faces a myriad of challenges - economic and otherwise
- Regional Disparity: The Dark Side of Inequality in Latin America
- Coal: The story of the world's most abundant fossil fuel
- Gold: The Most Precious of Metals (Part 3)
- Venezuela's Electoral Conundrum
- Trump's 1st Year: 95 Analysts Surveyed on U.S. Economy
- The Latest on China and What's in Store for 2018
- An in-depth look at the Eurozone’s booming economy and the challenges that lurk in the shadows
- Increasing poverty in Latin America takes a breather thanks to improving economic dynamics
- Is Spain doing enough to address its high youth unemployment rate?
- Has Latin America gone far enough in reducing barriers to international trade?
- Commodities Outlook: Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Lead & Tin
- 21 experts tell us what the future looks like for cryptocurrencies and blockchain
- Turkish lira plummets to all-time low on Erdogan’s monetary feud and tense U.S.-Turkey relations
- Copper: The first metal mastered by man
- Nigerian Economy Still Treading Water Thanks to Oil Sector
- The Mercosur-EU Free Trade Agreement: Obstacles & Opportunities
- Elections in Chile: What the results could mean for the economy
- QE’s Untold Story: A Chart That Fed Correspondents Need To Investigate
- Holland’s fragile one-seat majority government targets economic growth at the expense of fiscal sustainability
- South Africa: Economy at a tipping point?
- Latin American Commodities: What’s behind the increase in demand and prices?
- Is the UK really "shackled to a corpse"?
- Spain-Catalonia: 7 economic experts weigh in on how the situation will affect the outlook
- How well is Spain's labor market doing since the crisis?
- Which countries will have the highest and lowest inflation in 2017?
- How vulnerable is Latin America to economic crises today?
- Iron ore facts and common questions answered
- The bulging economic costs of obesity
- How much investment is needed to salvage Latin America’s crumbling infrastructure?
- A Look at the Potential Impact of Brexit on the Dutch Economy
- Emerging Markets Are Kicking Into Higher Gear In 2017
- Why is foreign direct investment in Latin America falling again?
- Are Central Banks Nationalising the Economy?
- Bounty or burden? The impact of refugees on European economies is far from clear
- What’s the future of U.S.-Latin America trade relations?
- Taxes or cutbacks? Latin America's challenge of sustaining spending without causing debt to skyrocket
- Are uranium prices making a comeback?
- Taxing the Economy: Achieving a Delicate Balance
- How will Latin America’s upcoming lengthy election cycle affect the reform agenda and credit ratings?
- How will emerging market economies perform in 2017?
- Chilean Economy in Focus: Interview with Senior Economist of the Chamber of Commerce of Santiago
- CEOs Rank Top Economies for Growth Opportunities
- The Mobile Ecosystem & Latin America's Economy
- Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy: Interview with Tim Cooper from BMI Research
- How will the Fed reduce its balance sheet & and how will the ECB end QE? - 19 economic experts weigh in
- Thoughts on "unwinding" QE from Frances Coppola
- The Fed and ECB at a crossroads: Unwinding QE
- Spain: The economy that continues to silence the critics
- Latin America: The Most Unequal Region in the World
- The History of OPEC: Has it been a Success?
- FocusEconomics Announces 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards Winners
- Latin America’s rising unemployment bucks nearly decade long trend
- Escape from the Central Bank Trap by Daniel Lacalle
- China's economic rebalancing act: What to look out for in 2017
- Driving Growth in Latin America: Challenges & Priorities
- Is the Global Economy Rebalancing?
- Commodity exporters face challenging times
- Recent Global Events Facilitate Mercosur-Pacific Alliance
- 23 economic experts weigh in: Why is productivity growth so low?
- Mexico's outlook as Trump nears 100-day mark
- Interview with Oxford Economics Senior Economist on implications of the possible outcomes of the French Presidential Election
- The anxiety of the small saver in a world of negative interest rates
- Brexit negotiations. Between Uncertainty and Urgency
- An Economic History of the EU from El Blog Salmón
- Baby Boomin': Implications of high population growth in Latin America
- Survey of International Economists Predicts a Le Pen Defeat in French Elections, Says Macron has Best Economic Plan
- Spain in a global context: developed economy with some challenges
- How much is crime costing Latin America?
- Predictions & Estimates from Economist Daniel Lacalle
- What economy will the new Dutch government inherit?
- “The data is not a true reflection of reality in India” Interview with Société Générale India Economist
- What are the prospects for Emerging Economies in 2017?
- What to expect in Asia for 2017
- Top Economics & Finance Blogs of 2017
- Latam to Resume Moderate Growth in 2017 but Important Risks Plague Outlook
- 4 Key European Elections That Will Impact the Economy in 2017
- How are security concerns and political chaos affecting Turkey’s economy?
- Global growth to edge up in 2017
- Set to breach targets again? Debt and deficit outlooks for Southern European Eurozone countries in 2016 & 2017
- What does Donald Trump mean for the U.S. economy?
- How will emerging markets perform in 2017?
- The economic impact of a break in U.S.-Philippines ties
- Trump election: Base metals surge due to infrastructure plan
- 5 updates on the Venezuelan economic crisis
- Canada: When your neighbor’s house is on fire…
- Short-term pain before long-term gain? A look at French labor reform and economic growth
- Asia: Unremarkable growth & unfulfilled promises?
- How India's latest monsoon is affecting the economy
- Innovation in Latin America: Potential Goes Untapped Due to Weak Economic Conditions
- Russian economy update in wake of OPEC deal announcement
- The Wisdom of the Crowds and the Consensus Forecast
- Can the peso predict the U.S. election results?
- There's no end in sight to the Venezuela crisis
- A Look at the European Union Political Calendar
- Survey of international economists shows uncertainty surrounding elections damaging U.S. growth prospects
- FocusEconomics partners with leading online statistics provider Statista
- China: Recent postive economic data may be papering over the cracks
- Sub-Saharan Africa's 2016 & 2017 growth rates
- The Italian Dilemma: Weak banks pose risk to already faltering domestic demand
- How much money do migrants from Latin America send home?
- The U.S.' (Not So) Mysterious Case of the Missing Men
- What to expect from the G20 economies by 2020
- The Pain in Spain: Robust GDP growth cannot mask the persistent structural deficit
- Acting Man
- Alberto Forchielli
- Don't worry, I'm an economist
- Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog
- Economic Principals
- Edward Hugh Blog
- Financial Services (About.com)
- Kunal's thoughts
- Marc to Market
- Miles Kimball
- Morss Global Finance
- Of Markets & Men
- Owen Zidar
- Punto de Vista Economico
- The Capital Spectator
- True Economics