Blog posts tagged by tag: Latin America
After years of low global interest rates, a tightening cycle in the U.S. has reverberated around the world and sparked a shift in global monetary policy. In Latin America, central banks’ actions are at the forefront of economic discourse, as policymakers respond to challenges created by the tightening cycle and financial market volatility. Moreover, a busy electoral calendar this year and domestic challenges such as large external imbalances in some economies further complicate policymaking. With monetary policy under the microscope, FocusEconomics Latin America economists provide a snapshot of the main central bank governors across the region and their track records so far.
By Economist Ricardo Aceves
After six years of stagnation, foreign direct investment (FDI) in Latin America returned briskly in 2017, increasing sharply from the previous year. According to the latest report published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the flow of FDI in the region grew 8% to USD 150 billion. This was in stark contrast to the global trend; global FDI inflows fell 23% year-on-year, mainly driven by a drop of around a third in developed economies and more than 20% in Africa, while in developing Asia, flows basically stagnated.
With Mexico's general elections ending as expected with an AMLO victory on 1 July, Economist Christopher Thomas takes a look at Enrique Peña Nieto's legacy, the biggest challenges that face the new incoming president, and of course, NAFTA, among other issues.
Latin America and the Caribbean is one of the two regions of the world with the least intraregional trade along with Africa. This is due to the fact that historically countless processes have been developed with different objectives and results, which have not only failed to integrate the region economically but have also led to fragmentation. The risk that the escalation of the Trump administration's protectionist agenda implies for Latin America opens a new window via which the two great regional blocs, MERCOSUR and the Pacific Alliance, could grow closer.
The economic expansion that took place in the first decade of the 21st Century brought about considerable improvements in Latin American and Caribbean labor markets, including a reduction in unemployment and a significant increase in wages. The formality of employment, however, did not change significantly, reaching only 27% for women and 40% for men. Once the expansion cycle ended, the positive trend in employment stagnated, revealing the fragility of a system that had expanded mainly thanks to an increase in employment, without a considerable increase in productivity.
As we know, Latin America is the most unequal region in the world. This lack of equality that characterizes the region is undoubtedly a major barrier to its economic development. Why is it so difficult for Latin America to reduce inequality in a sustained way?
A sometimes overlooked region, the Central America and Caribbean economy is very important to the global economy. There is quite a bit going on in the region at the moment, including public unrest, corruption scandals and yet robust economic growth in many of the region’s economies. To get a better idea of what is happening in the Central America economy currently and how it looks for the foreseeable future, we asked some of our economists responsible for the region to give us an update. Here are their responses:
Historically, Latin America has relied heavily on raw materials, and price swings have set the pace of the region's economic cycles. However, from a fiscal point of view, its dependence on non-renewable natural resources, such as hydrocarbons and minerals, decreased notably between 2010 and 2016. This is the conclusion of the report Revenue Statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean 2018, produced by a group of international organizations.
eCommerce in Latin America is booming, and with the number of people using the internet and social media growing by the day, there is plenty of opportunity for companies selling online, also known as “eRetailers”. In fact, online sales are expected to grow 19% in the next five years – well above the global average of 11% – and are foreseen doubling in value to $118 billion in 2021. Two of the three fastest-growing eCommerce markets in the world are in Latin America: Colombia and Argentina.
Despite these impressive statistics, eRetailers face many challenges in Latin America, including online payment security, low banking services usage among citizens, and serious logistics issues, according to Patricia Galina of IEBS. The World Bank highlights some key areas where Latin America lags behind other regions as “lack of adequate roads and railways and port and airport efficiency”. It also cites corruption and cumbersome customs as major concerns. Lower purchasing power and tricky government regulations present yet another major roadblock. In addition, there are challenges related to trade and financial structures, such as the aforementioned banking penetration rates, along with low levels of confidence in electronic payment systems and lack of free flow of data. Analysts believe that companies must find a way to overcome these barriers to realize their full potential in this very promising market.
These are turbulent times for international trade. The massive economic crisis that unfolded in 2008 has not only intensified political tensions within several countries but has also had an impact on an international scale, which is being reflected in, among other things, a shifting global trade map. The resurgence of nationalism has prompted various countries to dust off the flags of trade protectionism, led mainly by the government of Donald Trump in the United States and Teresa May in the United Kingdom.
Just as trade protectionism is being highly debated, globalization is not dying down and new business opportunities are arising, which is quite intersting for countries in Latin America. In early March, 11 countries signed the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TTP 11) in Santiago, Chile. This agreement, in which Canada, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Australia and New Zealand are participating, will eliminate between 65% to 100% of tariffs among member countries over time.
TagsBanking Sector Energy Commodities Emerging Markets Eastern Europe France Consensus Forecast Latin America Exchange Rate Venezuela Forex Africa Healthcare Infographic OPEC Investment Brexit Spain IMF Italy Portugal oil prices Oil Australia Germany Tunisia UK G7 Canada Sub-Saharan Africa Gold United Kingdom Cryptocurrency Greece Iran European Union Vietnam Precious Metals Commodities China precious metals Colombia Trade South Africa Base Metals Commodities Turkey Ukraine Unemployment rate Major Economies Housing Market Asia Russia Bitcoin United States USA Mexico Commodities Euro Area Japan MENA Brazil India Economic Growth (GDP) Inflation Company News Argentina Nordic Economies TPP Agricultural Commodities
In FY 2018 economic growth in India should accelerate thanks to fading disruptions from the demonetization of Novem… https://t.co/4C9xYnZLQf
2 hours ago
Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate in 2019. Get more details: https://t.co/J6UhL4HDEf
5 hours ago
Despite mounting economic headwinds, the Chinese economy is expected to comfortably meet this year’s growth target… https://t.co/uePHyDNwaK
7 hours ago
7 hours ago
Looking ahead, growth should be robust across ASEAN. Get the latest 2018 and 2019 growth forecasts for major player… https://t.co/A9A2jYONnH
8 hours ago
- Which ASEAN countries are most exposed in the event of a U.S.-China trade war?
- 75 Top Economics Influencers to Follow
- Emerging Markets Economic Outlook 2018 and 2019
- The Faces Behind Latin America’s Key Institutions
- 2019 Economic Outlook for the Top Oil Producing Countries
- Is your cup of coffee about to get more expensive going in to 2019?
- The Economic Implications of an Aging Global Population
- Railway Mania: The Largest Speculative Bubble You’ve Never Heard Of
- Can the Wisdom of the Crowds predict the results of the 2018 World Cup?
- From Riches to Rags: Have Cryptocurrencies Crashed for Good?
- Investment looks to Latin America, but forecasts are not encouraging
- Turkey: Erdogan has cemented his grip on power - now what about the economy?
- How can Latin America’s business environment benefit from technological change?
- Mexico: A look at the past, present and future as elections yield AMLO victory
- Italy’s New Populist Government and the Eurozone: Prelude to a Crisis?
- Latin America moves toward increased integration as U.S. protectionism grows
- How can Latin America increase productivity without affecting the quality of employment?
- How will Saudi Arabia's economy benefit from lifting the women's driving ban?
- Which countries are the most prepared for the upcoming digital revolution?
- India Under Pressure from the U.S. on Trade Policy
- The Story of Steel
- Latin America is the World Leader in eCommerce Growth Despite Serious Challenges
- What the TPP means for trade in Latin America
- Elections in Russia: Analysis and Implications
- Nearly a Third of Latin Americans Have No Right to a Pension
- A Look at Healthcare Models Around the World
- The Poorest Countries in the World
- Newly-elected Chilean President Sebastian Piñera faces a myriad of challenges - economic and otherwise
- The Economic Effects of Trade Protectionism
- Regional Disparity: The Dark Side of Inequality in Latin America
- Coal: The story of the world's most abundant fossil fuel
- Venezuela's Electoral Conundrum
- Gold: The Most Precious of Metals (Part 3)
- Trump's 1st Year: 95 Analysts Surveyed on U.S. Economy
- The Latest on China and What's in Store for 2018
- An in-depth look at the Eurozone’s booming economy and the challenges that lurk in the shadows
- Increasing poverty in Latin America takes a breather thanks to improving economic dynamics
- What will be the most miserable economies in 2018?
- The World's Top 10 Largest Economies
- Is Spain doing enough to address its high youth unemployment rate?
- Has Latin America gone far enough in reducing barriers to international trade?
- Commodities Outlook: Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Lead & Tin
- 21 experts tell us what the future looks like for cryptocurrencies and blockchain
- Turkish lira plummets to all-time low on Erdogan’s monetary feud and tense U.S.-Turkey relations
- Copper: The first metal mastered by man
- Nigerian Economy Still Treading Water Thanks to Oil Sector
- The Mercosur-EU Free Trade Agreement: Obstacles & Opportunities
- Elections in Chile: What the results could mean for the economy
- QE’s Untold Story: A Chart That Fed Correspondents Need To Investigate
- Holland’s fragile one-seat majority government targets economic growth at the expense of fiscal sustainability
- South Africa: Economy at a tipping point?
- Latin American Commodities: What’s behind the increase in demand and prices?
- Is the UK really "shackled to a corpse"?
- Spain-Catalonia: 7 economic experts weigh in on how the situation will affect the outlook
- How well is Spain's labor market doing since the crisis?
- Which countries will have the highest and lowest inflation in 2017?
- How vulnerable is Latin America to economic crises today?
- Iron ore facts and common questions answered
- The bulging economic costs of obesity
- How much investment is needed to salvage Latin America’s crumbling infrastructure?
- A Look at the Potential Impact of Brexit on the Dutch Economy
- Emerging Markets Are Kicking Into Higher Gear In 2017
- Why is foreign direct investment in Latin America falling again?
- Are Central Banks Nationalising the Economy?
- Bounty or burden? The impact of refugees on European economies is far from clear
- What’s the future of U.S.-Latin America trade relations?
- Taxes or cutbacks? Latin America's challenge of sustaining spending without causing debt to skyrocket
- Are uranium prices making a comeback?
- Taxing the Economy: Achieving a Delicate Balance
- How will Latin America’s upcoming lengthy election cycle affect the reform agenda and credit ratings?
- How will emerging market economies perform in 2017?
- Chilean Economy in Focus: Interview with Senior Economist of the Chamber of Commerce of Santiago
- CEOs Rank Top Economies for Growth Opportunities
- The Mobile Ecosystem & Latin America's Economy
- Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy: Interview with Tim Cooper from BMI Research
- How will the Fed reduce its balance sheet & and how will the ECB end QE? - 19 economic experts weigh in
- Thoughts on "unwinding" QE from Frances Coppola
- The Fed and ECB at a crossroads: Unwinding QE
- Spain: The economy that continues to silence the critics
- Latin America: The Most Unequal Region in the World
- The History of OPEC: Has it been a Success?
- FocusEconomics Announces 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards Winners
- Latin America’s rising unemployment bucks nearly decade long trend
- Escape from the Central Bank Trap by Daniel Lacalle
- China's economic rebalancing act: What to look out for in 2017
- Driving Growth in Latin America: Challenges & Priorities
- Is the Global Economy Rebalancing?
- Commodity exporters face challenging times
- Recent Global Events Facilitate Mercosur-Pacific Alliance
- 23 economic experts weigh in: Why is productivity growth so low?
- Mexico's outlook as Trump nears 100-day mark
- Interview with Oxford Economics Senior Economist on implications of the possible outcomes of the French Presidential Election
- The anxiety of the small saver in a world of negative interest rates
- Brexit negotiations. Between Uncertainty and Urgency
- An Economic History of the EU from El Blog Salmón
- Baby Boomin': Implications of high population growth in Latin America
- Survey of International Economists Predicts a Le Pen Defeat in French Elections, Says Macron has Best Economic Plan
- Spain in a global context: developed economy with some challenges
- How much is crime costing Latin America?
- Predictions & Estimates from Economist Daniel Lacalle
- What economy will the new Dutch government inherit?
- “The data is not a true reflection of reality in India” Interview with Société Générale India Economist
- What are the prospects for Emerging Economies in 2017?
- What to expect in Asia for 2017
- Top Economics & Finance Blogs of 2017
- 4 Key European Elections That Will Impact the Economy in 2017
- Latam to Resume Moderate Growth in 2017 but Important Risks Plague Outlook
- How are security concerns and political chaos affecting Turkey’s economy?
- Global growth to edge up in 2017
- Set to breach targets again? Debt and deficit outlooks for Southern European Eurozone countries in 2016 & 2017
- What does Donald Trump mean for the U.S. economy?
- How will emerging markets perform in 2017?
- The economic impact of a break in U.S.-Philippines ties
- Trump election: Base metals surge due to infrastructure plan
- 5 updates on the Venezuelan economic crisis
- Canada: When your neighbor’s house is on fire…
- Short-term pain before long-term gain? A look at French labor reform and economic growth
- Asia: Unremarkable growth & unfulfilled promises?
- How India's latest monsoon is affecting the economy
- Innovation in Latin America: Potential Goes Untapped Due to Weak Economic Conditions
- Russian economy update in wake of OPEC deal announcement
- The Wisdom of the Crowds and the Consensus Forecast
- Can the peso predict the U.S. election results?
- There's no end in sight to the Venezuela crisis
- A Look at the European Union Political Calendar
- Survey of international economists shows uncertainty surrounding elections damaging U.S. growth prospects
- FocusEconomics partners with leading online statistics provider Statista
- China: Recent postive economic data may be papering over the cracks
- Sub-Saharan Africa's 2016 & 2017 growth rates
- The Italian Dilemma: Weak banks pose risk to already faltering domestic demand
- How much money do migrants from Latin America send home?
- The U.S.' (Not So) Mysterious Case of the Missing Men
- What to expect from the G20 economies by 2020
- The Pain in Spain: Robust GDP growth cannot mask the persistent structural deficit
- Acting Man
- Alberto Forchielli
- Don't worry, I'm an economist
- Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog
- Economic Principals
- Edward Hugh Blog
- Financial Services (About.com)
- Kunal's thoughts
- Marc to Market
- Miles Kimball
- Morss Global Finance
- Of Markets & Men
- Owen Zidar
- Punto de Vista Economico
- The Capital Spectator
- True Economics