Blog posts tagged by tag: Infographic
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Global growth to edge up in 2017
Global growth is likely to strengthen this year but uncertainty over geopolitical issues across the globe, elections in various European countries, Brexit negotiations and Donald Trump as President of the United States, pose risks to growth. Have a look at what is expected for the developed economies & the emerging markets in 2017.
Click the image to open full-size infographic
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Interview with Chief Economist of Banco Fator: “2017 will be a difficult year for Brazil”
The Brazilian economy remains stuck in the worst recession in modern history and GDP is expected to contract a sharp 3.2% in 2016. While signs of stabilization have begun to emerge and the recession is abating, the FocusEconomics panel sees only a tepid recovery next year, with growth of 1.0%. Against this backdrop, we spoke with one of our panel members Chief Economist José Francisco from Banco Fator about the recent developments in the Brazilian economy and what he expects for 2017.
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Set to breach targets again? Debt and deficit outlooks for Southern European Eurozone countries in 2016 & 2017
After dragging Greece kicking and screaming through a never-ending vicious cycle of fiscal adjustment and output decline, the European Commission seems to be softening in its attitude towards other struggling Eurozone economies. France, Italy, Portugal and Spain, among others, have all repeatedly been given extensions to reduce their debt and deficit levels after recurrent breaches of EU targets have gone unpunished, and the trend looks set to continue as our forecasts show that those economies will underperform again this year and next. Does this mark a shift in mindset within the Commission as to whether the Growth and Stability Pact is fit for purpose? Or rather just tactical maneuvering—or indeed resigned acceptance—in tough political times, as the EU faces unprecedented challenges to its legitimacy and survival?
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What does Donald Trump mean for the U.S. economy?
Donald Trump will take power in January and will govern a U.S. economy that is in its seventh year of growing tepidly at around 2%. Our Consensus Forecast for the U.S. economy this month sees GDP growing 2.1% in 2017, but this will be subject to revision in the coming weeks and months as the economic priorities of President-elect Trump become clearer. Here we analyze the immediate and possible future implications of Trump’s victory. During his campaign, Trump outlined an extremely controversial policy agenda, including—but not limited to—building a wall on the U.S. southern border with Mexico, renegotiating NAFTA, cancelling or reforming the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), imposing punitive trade tariffs on China and cutting taxes for the wealthy. The unexpected victory of Trump in November’s election and the resultant uncertainty over future U.S. policy will have serious ramifications for both the domestic and global economies.
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How will emerging markets perform in 2017?
After a difficult 2015, the emerging markets have fortunately not decelerated as initially feared this year. Economic growth has been supported in 2016 by improving commodity prices and a broadly stable U.S. dollar. China’s economy has proved more robust than initially feared and the recovery now looks to be back on track in Brazil and Russia.
FocusEconomics’ Consensus Forecast sees emerging economies as a whole growing 3.9% this year, after expanding 4.0% in 2015. But what is in store for emerging markets in 2017?
Have a look at our latest Consensus Forecasts and find out what our panel of analysts says about the outlook for the key emerging markets next year.
Click the image to open full-size infographic
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Short-term pain before long-term gain? A look at French labor reform and economic growth
The French economy has come under the spotlight again after disappointing GDP growth in the third quarter. Even the French government has now finally admitted that its 1.5% growth forecast for 2016 is overly optimistic, long after our analysts downgraded their forecasts. Ironically, one of many factors that has dragged on economic growth in France this year has been the ostensibly pro-growth labor reform introduced in the summer, or rather the strikes over it. These weighed on domestic demand earlier this year and will thereby play a part in penalizing France’s overall GDP growth in 2016. This calls for a closer look at the labor reform and what it means for French GDP growth going forward, particularly in a short-term perspective. Such a structural reform, if introduced in an already robust economic context, should have positive consequences for the economy almost from the outset. In the current environment of weak demand and constrained macroeconomic policy, however, the potential losses of the reform could well exceed the potential gains in the short-run, regardless of the eventual benefits that should hopefully win over in the medium- to long-term.
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Can the peso predict the U.S. election results?
When Trump rises, the Mexican peso falls, so could the peso exchange rate forecast predict the outcome of the upcoming U.S. elections in November?
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Survey of international economists shows uncertainty surrounding elections damaging U.S. growth prospects
A new survey by FocusEconomics shows that the majority of the 72 international macroeconomic experts polled believe the U.S. economy is suffering due to political uncertainty. Looking forward, economists from leading institutions around the world think that the U.S. economy will grow faster under Hillary Clinton’s plan in both the short- and medium-term. Overall, the broad Consensus among economists is that Clinton would manage the economy much better than Donald Trump.
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Sub-Saharan Africa's 2016 & 2017 growth rates
Sub-Saharan Africa economies have been hit by low prices for raw materials and multiple domestic challenges this year. Our panel of analysts downgraded the region’s outlook for the fourth consecutive month and they now expect the economy to expand 2.0% in 2016 and 3.6% next year.
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Africa's Economic Giants - Growth Plunges in 2016
Things have not been going so well for Africa's two largest economies so far in 2016. Nigeria and South Africa have both felt the brunt of the global commodities price plunge over the last year and now they have the impact of the Brexit to contend with. The question is, when will they recover? Have a look at the infographic below to find out how we forecast growth going for Sub-Saharan Africa's two big guns through 2017.
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Top Posts
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Brazil and Mexico Economic Outlook - Interviews with Barclays Economists
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