Blog posts tagged by tag: Infographic
When it comes to the top national economies globally, although the order may shift around slightly from one year to the next, the key players are usually the same. At the top of the list is the United States of America, which according to Investopedia, has been at the head of the table going all the way back to 1871. However, as has been the case for a good few years now, China is gaining on the U.S., with some even claiming that China has already overtaken the U.S. as the world’s Number 1 economy.
Nonetheless, going by nominal GDP measured in U.S. dollars alone, the U.S. maintains its spot followed by China and Japan. In this post we take a look at the world’s top economies according to our Consensus Forecasts for 2018 nominal GDP. We also discuss how the top economies change when looking at GDP per capita along with a highlight on emerging markets and their potential to catch up to the big players in the not too distant future.
Over the last year and change, the economic outlook for the Eurozone has improved dramatically while in that same time the UK economic outlook has left much to be desired. A little over a year ago, Brexit campaigners proclaimed that if the UK did not leave the European Union it would be "shackled to a corpse." A year on from the Brexit-vote and that looks far from the truth as the health of the Eurozone economy looks better than it has in some time.
Recently released economic forecasts from the European Commission project the UK economy growing the slowest of almost any EU country in 2019 when the country is set to leave the bloc. Read our latest economic outlooks for the UK and the Eurozone below to find out what we project.
How will Latin America’s upcoming lengthy election cycle affect the reform agenda and credit ratings?
Latin America will soon enter into an electoral cycle that will last about a year and a half and, depending on the results, some countries could face difficulties in terms of their credit ratings. This is because of one important factor: The ongoing fiscal consolidation continues to be a challenge for many governments that are facing a context of low economic growth and lower tax revenues, especially those related to low commodity prices, which makes it even more difficult to curb the current debt dynamics in the region.
*Guest blog post from Latinoamerica21.
Presidential elections are scheduled in seven countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Paraguay and Venezuela. All of the countries, with the exception of Venezuela, will see their current presidents’ terms ending and new leaders taking on the role. In addition, congressional elections will be held in Argentina— which could test Mauricio Macri’s reform agenda—and in El Salvador, where months of political paralysis has led to a significant decline in sources of funding for the government in addition to a debt default.
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The elections will be of particular importance for the future of credit ratings for countries that have a negative outlook: Brazil, Chile and Mexico.
Mobile technologies and services generated 5% of Latin America's GDP in 2015 and nearly 2 million jobs, direct and indirect. In addition, the mobile ecosystem has contributed USD 40 billion to the public coffers for tax purposes, according to the report, The Mobile Economy Latin America and the Caribbean 2016, from the GSMA which represents the interests of mobile operators around the world.
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The commodity super cycle is well and truly over, as has been exemplified by the tumble in commodity prices over the last few years. Emerging market economies that depend heavily on commodities exports for economic growth have been floundering as a result. However, Commodities prices are on their way back with underlying fundamentals of the commodity markets remaining positive through Q1 and are expected to continue to support the recovery throughout this year. But will the comeback in commodities prices impact the emerging market economies' economic growth? In this post we take a look at some of the commodities that are making a comeback and the outlook their biggest exporters.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s liberal VVD party has won again despite losing seats, keeping the far right in a largely ineffectual position. The Netherlands is one of Europe’s best performing economies, which surely helped see reason ultimately triumph over populism after a campaign dominated by much political noise from Geert Wilders’ anti-immigration party. And yet voters still punished the outgoing coalition heavily. Rutte’s party lost about a quarter of its support and its traditional coalition partner all but collapsed, with the Green-Left party making substantial gains to emerge as an unexpected victor of the night and a potential kingmaker in coalition negotiations. On the face of it the Dutch economy is doing remarkably well, yet voters were clearly not entirely happy with the political status quo. While the Liberals do battle behind the scenes to form a working majority in the fragmented Dutch parliament, we take a look at the economic situation that the new government will inherit.
Global inflation inched up from 3.1% in July to 3.2% in August. Inflation accelerated in the U.S. as hurricane-related disruptions caused gas prices to spike, while in the UK inflation came in above market expectations as the pass-through effects of the weakened pound continued to feed higher prices. Inflation also trended higher in the Euro area on the back of higher prices for non-core goods. Among the key emerging market economies, inflation accelerated in China and India while it decelerated in Brazil and Russia.
Although risks to inflation from a global perspective remain mostly tilted to the downside, mounting inflationary pressures in Latin America, primarily focused in inflation-ridden Venezuela, caused the FocusEconomics projection for 2018 global inflation to increase to 4.7%, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. This year, the panel sees inflation averaging 4.9%.
Emerging markets started 2016 on a weak note, with concerns over falling commodity prices and China’s slowing economy weighing on economic outlook. However, as the year progressed, various factors have led to emerging-market strength and economic performance was better than initially expected.
After expanding 4.0% in 2015, emerging economies grew by an estimated 3.9% last year, according to FocusEconomics’ Consensus Forecast. Economic growth was supported in 2016 by improving commodity prices and a broadly stable U.S. dollar. China’s economy proved more robust than initially feared and the recovery now looks to be back on track in Brazil and Russia.
But what’s in store for emerging markets this year? Will growth pick up in 2017?
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The Latin American economy is expected to recover modestly in 2017, though the outlook is plagued with risks that are causing a downward bias in analysts’ growth forecasts, according to FocusEconomics’ latest survey of 150 leading economic institutions.
Economists forecast Latin America’s GDP to increase 1.6% in 2017, which has been revised down from the 1.8% projected last month. Economic data was stubbornly weak across the region in 2016 and growing uncertainty surrounding the global outlook in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s victory is weighing on sentiment, fueling concerns over the trajectory of the recovery in 2018.
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