Blog posts tagged by tag: India
Like the rest of the world, India is grappling with the indiscriminatory spread of Covid-19. Consequently, since 25 March, the government has imposed a strict national lockdown on India’s population of over 1.3 billion people. These measures, coupled with the global economic downturn, are putting severe strain on the economy, just as the clock ticks towards the first anniversary of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second term in office on 30 May. To dig deeper, we interviewed Kunal Kumar Kundu, India economist at Société Générale.
India has not escaped the scrutiny of the Trump administration when it comes to the two countries’ trade balance. India’s trade surplus in goods and services with the U.S. fell from USD 31 billion in 2016 to USD 28 billion in 2017. Although this was welcome news for the U.S., which wants to improve its overall trade balance with India, the reduction was not seen as large enough.
Is Asia’s economy stabilizing? Will Asia ever fulfill its promise of being the driving engine for global growth? Will China get back to the booming growth of a few years ago or has the last year been a sign of the beginning of the end? Will India usurp China as the darling of the Asia-Pacific economy? These are some of the questions on the tips of tongues of many, and we try to answer those questions and more in our progress report on the Asian economy so far in 2016.
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"A stronger monsoon should drive up rural income and add to the already favorable tailwinds to consumption. Our panel raised their GDP forecast by 0.1 percentage points this month and now see the economy expanding 7.6% in FY 2016. For FY 2017, the panel sees growth stable at the robust pace of 7.6%." - Angela Bouzanis, India Senior Economist
It has not been a great start to 2016 for emerging markets. Collapsing oil prices have undermined Russia’s fiscal sustainability, Brazil is struggling through a deep recession and political chaos, and the Chinese economy continues to slow, hurting growth prospects in other developing countries.
According to FocusEconomics’ Consensus Forecast, emerging economies as a whole are estimated to have grown 4.0% in 2015 and are projected to grow 4.0% combined this year. Although growth rates in general continue to be faster than those of developed economies, according to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report, they remain below the average of the past decade.
What’s in store for emerging markets for the rest of 2016? Have a look at our latest Consensus Forecasts and find out what the experts say about the key emerging economies this year.
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Since the early 2000’s, China has grown into one of the world’s two main growth engines, along with the United States. This situation intensified during the global financial crisis and has remained unaltered in recent years. Therefore, any slowdown or economic turmoil in China has dramatic consequences worldwide. The recent lackluster situation in China’s property sector and less robust infrastructure spending at regional levels due to financial constraints have reduced demand for commodities. This situation has exerted further downward pressure on prices and hit growth among commodity-export-driven nations. Developed countries are also feeling the pain of weaker growth in China mainly due to lower purchases of consumer goods, including luxury items. Nevertheless, it is worth highlighting that China is now in a soft patch, which means weaker growth, but not declining economic activity (at least not for now).
How does the IMF’s latest quarterly global outlook compare to forecasts from over 30 of the world’s leading economists?
The World Bank just released its updated World Economic Ooutlook. We compared the IMF forecasts for 10 countries including, the USA, Russia, Japan, India, China and Brazil, to our own Consensus Forecasts from our panels of 30+ economic institutions. See how the forecasts stack up in our interactive infographic: http://bit.ly/1wnASjo
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