Blog posts tagged by tag: Consensus Forecast

• Analyzing ASEAN

  This article assesses the economic and political evolution of ASEAN, from the bloc’s foundation in 1967 to the present day, and looks ahead at what is in store over the coming years. It places special focus on the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis, two events which tested the ties between members. The article concludes with the ASEAN economic outlook from the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast

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  Tags: Asean, Asian Financial Crisis, Consensus Forecast, GDP

• Can the Wisdom of the Crowds predict the results of the 2018 World Cup?

  The 2018 FIFA World Cup ended a few weeks back and what an event it was. The World Cup, like the Olympics, is one of those unique sporting events that has the ability to captivate just about anyone and everyone, whether you are a hardcore football fan, a casual fan or normally not a fan at all. While not every country is represented at the World Cup—in fact, the vast majority of countries are unrepresented—this doesn’t stop people all over the world from taking part. 3.2 billion people tuned in to watch the World Cup in 2014 and forecasts for viewership for 2018 came in at 3.4 billion according to Research company GlobalWebIndex. That’s just about half of the world’s population.

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  Tags: Consensus Forecast

• FocusEconomics Announces 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards Winners

  We are pleased to announce the winners of our 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards. The Awards recognize the most accurate forecasters for the main macroeconomic indicators across 87 countries and 29 commodity prices in 2016. Details of the awards and the list of winners are available at: www.focus-economics.com/awards.

  To identify the top economic forecasters, FocusEconomics assessed the accuracy of the forecasts submitted by over 350 institutions to its Consensus Forecast survey over the course of 24 months. Among the winning institutions are the world’s most renowned international banks and economic research firms such as BMI Research, Capital Economics, Citigroup Global Markets, Deutsche Bank, EIU, HSBC, JPMorgan and Oxford Economics, along with many others.

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  Tags: Consensus Forecast

• The Wisdom of the Crowds and the Consensus Forecast

  “A centrally planned economy could never match the efficiency of the open market because what is known by a single agent is only a small fraction of the sum total of knowledge held by all members of society.”

  - F.A. Hayek, Economist, and Philosopher

  When you think about economic forecasting, you can think of the quote above as analogy – in a “centrally planned economy,” the planning agency can be thought of as an individual forecast and the “open market” as a multiple-source forecast. The Consensus Forecast, however, is the market price in as much as it reflects all of the knowledge available.

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  Tags: Consensus Forecast

• How will the UK economy fare after Brexit?

  2017 is shaping up to be a tough year for the UK post-Brexit. Economic analysts are projecting the economy to decelerate substantially to just 0.3% growth, fixed investment is seen falling drastically, exports are expected to plummet, the pound has taken quite a tumble... and that's just the beginning. Have a look at the latest forecasts for the UK:

  

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  Tags: Brexit, Consensus Forecast, Economic Growth (GDP), European Union, Forex, Infographic, Investment, Trade, UK

• How do the freshly-released IMF GDP growth forecasts compare to the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast

  The IMF has just released its biannual World Economic Outlook. Sharp downgrades were made to its growth forecasts for emerging economies, especially Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa and Russia. See how the IMF 2015 GDP growth forecasts compare to the latest consensus forecasts from the FocusEconomics’ network of the world’s leading economists.

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  Tags: Africa, Asia, Consensus Forecast, Economic Growth (GDP), Euro Area, IMF, USA

• Consensus or Individual Forecasts?

  Let me start with this: if you haven’t read Nate Silver’s The signal and the noise then I suggest you go pick it up right away. For anybody who is interested in the business of forecasting, Silver’s book is a must read. Silver, a baseball analyst-turned political analyst-turned forecaster extraordinaire, gained notoriety when he correctly predicted the 2008 U.S. presidential election almost flawlessly. In his book, he discusses the intricacies of forecasting and the enormous challenges presented when one attempts to anticipate the future, applying rigorous analysis combined with large amounts of rationality and common sense.

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  Tags: Consensus Forecast