Blog posts tagged by tag: Colombia
The Latin American economy is expected to recover modestly in 2017, though the outlook is plagued with risks that are causing a downward bias in analysts’ growth forecasts, according to FocusEconomics’ latest survey of 150 leading economic institutions.
Economists forecast Latin America’s GDP to increase 1.6% in 2017, which has been revised down from the 1.8% projected last month. Economic data was stubbornly weak across the region in 2016 and growing uncertainty surrounding the global outlook in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s victory is weighing on sentiment, fueling concerns over the trajectory of the recovery in 2018.
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The country traditionally associated with coffee, crude oil, drug cartels and deep-seated internal conflict, Colombia is turning over a new leaf. Whether the change is happening by design or by default, it must be said that while some of the recent developments in Colombia are welcome, others are concerning. President Santos and his political allies have managed to create a constitutionally-binding peace process that legally brings to an end the 52-year conflict with the Marxist rebel groups operating in the country. Colombia’s parallel economy in which rebel groups collected war taxes, operated drug cartels and engaged in kidnapping and extortion, could also be drawing to a close. This positive development promises to mark a turning point in the country’s economic story. Nevertheless, the economy is facing tumultuous times: a historic collapse in the price of commodities, particularly oil, has shocked Colombia’s external sector, resulting in a weaker peso, a higher current account deficit and a dent in government revenue. More recently, inclement weather has affected agricultural output and raised food prices, which has forced the Central Bank to undergo a drastic tightening cycle in order to bring inflation back under control.
These unprecedented factors are all impacting the economy in complex ways. FocusEconomics consulted Nelson Vera, Macro-Chief Economist at the Asociación Nacional de Instituciones Financieras (ANIF) for additional insight into Colombia’s economic dynamics. ANIF is the winner of the FocusEconomic’s best overall forecaster award for Colombia this year.
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