Blog posts tagged by tag: Argentina
Argentina’s economic outlook has deteriorated notably since August’s LatinFocus edition. The primary elections on 11 August revealed that President Mauricio Macri is trailing in a very distant second place in the run-up to the October elections, shocking market analysts and sparking a huge and destabilizing capital flight in turn. The drastic change in political landscape and unfolding market turmoil has significantly affected the country’s outlook, particularly for next year. Now, GDP is seen contracting for the third year in a row in 2020, as the exchange rate’s drastic depreciation stokes inflation and forces even tighter monetary policy, suppressing consumption. Moreover, lower sentiment and the uncertain political situation, especially regarding the government’s finances and ability to honor its debts, will damage investment. In this accompanying feature, Argentina Economist Massimo Bassetti explains where the crisis is now and what to expect ahead, while several of our panelists provide insight into their forecasts, the current situation and what they see ahead.
With Argentina’s October election drawing ever closer, all eyes are on its possible outcome and its likely consequences for the country’s economic outlook. The economy finally seems to be slowly but surely recovering, with the improvement in fiscal and external accounts possible harbingers of an incipient turnaround. Looking ahead, the recovery will now critically depend on whether international investors trust the government, especially concerning its willingness to honor the agreement signed with the IMF and its resolve to carry out much-needed economic reforms. We sat down with Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina and Federico Moll, economists at Ecolatina, to discuss the outlook and shed some light on the Gordian knots the new government will have to unravel; the respective political priorities and government strategies; and how the different political outcomes would likely shape Argentina’s economic trajectory.
Argentinians between the ages of 30 and 50 have inherited a heavy burden: economic instability, political turmoil and flagrant corruption. This combination, as familiar as it sounds to Latin Americans, is of particular relevance in Argentina because it has caused an entire generation to live life discouraged, without a long-term vision and clinging to what they have for fear of losing everything.
The Latin American economy is expected to recover modestly in 2017, though the outlook is plagued with risks that are causing a downward bias in analysts’ growth forecasts, according to FocusEconomics’ latest survey of 150 leading economic institutions.
Economists forecast Latin America’s GDP to increase 1.6% in 2017, which has been revised down from the 1.8% projected last month. Economic data was stubbornly weak across the region in 2016 and growing uncertainty surrounding the global outlook in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s victory is weighing on sentiment, fueling concerns over the trajectory of the recovery in 2018.
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It has not been a great start to 2016 for emerging markets. Collapsing oil prices have undermined Russia’s fiscal sustainability, Brazil is struggling through a deep recession and political chaos, and the Chinese economy continues to slow, hurting growth prospects in other developing countries.
According to FocusEconomics’ Consensus Forecast, emerging economies as a whole are estimated to have grown 4.0% in 2015 and are projected to grow 4.0% combined this year. Although growth rates in general continue to be faster than those of developed economies, according to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report, they remain below the average of the past decade.
What’s in store for emerging markets for the rest of 2016? Have a look at our latest Consensus Forecasts and find out what the experts say about the key emerging economies this year.
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[INFOGRAPHIC] Latin America continues economic downslide as Argentina, Brazil & Venezuela confront internal crises
Latin America’s growth will be even lower this year than 2014’s lackluster estimate. In fact, our panel of analysts slashed their projections on weaker economic activity in key regional players.
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