Oil & Gold Consensus Forecast - 01 July 2020
Oil prices were relatively stable over the past two weeks, amid a sustained rebalancing of global demand and supply conditions. Gold prices are expected to remain elevated this year and next.
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Latest Reports
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July 3, 2020
Global economic growth to take a severe hit in 2020
The world economy will shrink this year at the sharpest rate in decades, as measures taken to contain Covid-19 severely restrain private consumption, investment, trade, and travel. Risks to the outlook are elevated, given uncertainty over the evolution of the pandemic—including the possibility of a second wave of infections—and the duration of social distancing restrictions.
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June 17, 2020
The fast-spreading Covid-19 pandemic is set to push the region into its deepest recession in modern history this year
The Covid-19 pandemic will push the region to its worst economic contraction in over a century this year. This will play out through multiple channels, including the disruption of value chains and collapse in commodity prices, and the sudden stop in production and activity domestically. Limited fiscal space to counter the effects of the crisis clouds the outlook further.
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June 17, 2020
The regional economy is projected to contract this year on the back of the Covid-19 pandemic. Foreign lockdown measures will weigh heavily on trade, tourism and remittances inflows, while domestic containment measures will hit private consumption and fixed investment.
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June 29, 2020
The economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic is expected to be severe
The regional economy is seen shrinking this year, due to the impact of domestic containment measures and lockdowns abroad hitting exports and tourism. More positively, governments across the region have eased restrictions in recent weeks, which should be supporting demand at the tail end of Q2. Downside risks include a second wave and prolonged weak external demand.
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June 25, 2020
East Asia economic growth is expected to slow significantly in 2020
Economic growth is expected to slow significantly in 2020 , as domestic activity and exports are restricted by coronavirus-related lockdowns at home and abroad, respectively. A key downside risk is a flare-up in coronavirus cases. Troubled trade relations between the U.S. and China represents an additional risk.
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July 3, 2020
Eurozone economic outlooks darkens considerably
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June 9, 2020
Central & Eastern Europe growth to lose traction in 2020
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June 9, 2020
Regional GDP is expected to contract notably this year, suppressed by the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic. The health crisis is forecast to weigh heavily on private consumption, trade and tourism. While the gradual lifting of lockdown measures should provide some respite, fiscal space to spur economic activity varies greatly across the region.
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June 9, 2020
Economic activity worsened drastically in 2020
The regional economy is seen contracting this year as containment measures hinder private spending and investment activity, while extinguished external demand and compromised trade links dent exports. Russia, the regional heavyweight, will be battered by a weaker RUB and low oil prices, which will reverberate across the region’s smaller economies via shrinking remittances.
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June 9, 2020
The MENA economy is seen declining this year. Containment measures will weigh on domestic activity, while the global downturn will hurt external demand. Moreover, oil exporters will be hit by lower average oil prices compared to 2019 and constrained oil production following the OPEC+ deal. Widespread geopolitical tensions and possible social unrest pose downside risks.
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June 29, 2020
The region to suffer its worst contraction on record this year
Latest Economic
News
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Kazakhstan: Industrial output growth falls to one-year low in May
July 17, 2020
Industrial production increased a meagre 0.5% year-on-year in May (April: +6.2% yoy), as the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic dented activity.
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Denmark: Inflation rises in June but remains muted
July 10, 2020
Consumer prices increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.10% over the previous month in June, contrasting the 0.10% fall recorded in May.
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China: Bank lending jumps in June
July 10, 2020
In June, Chinese banks distributed CNY 1.81 trillion (USD 204 billion) in new yuan loans.
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