Nordic Economies Economic Forecast

Economic Snapshot for the Nordic Economies

March 29, 2017

DenmarkThe economy is expected to accelerate moderately this year, mainly thanks to an improved performance in the external sector, along with increasing global trade. However, potential protectionist policies from several of Denmark’s trade partners form a downside risk. Panelists expect GDP to expand 1.5% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2018, FocusEconomics panelists see growth at 1.7%.

FinlandThe country’s economic recovery risks being ephemeral, as GDP growth is expected to slow this year. The agreed wage freeze, set to take effect this year, is expected to squeeze private consumption, while continued austerity will keep a lid on government consumption growth. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 1.2% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2018, analysts expect GDP to expand 1.3%.

NorwayDespite fiscal stimulus weakening slightly, the economy is expected to moderately gain traction thanks to growing global trade and an improved outlook for the oil sector. Total GDP is expected to expand 1.4% in 2017, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, our panel sees the total economy growing 1.7%. Mainland GDP, which excludes oil drilling activities, is expected to expand 1.6% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. The panel expects Mainland GDP to increase 2.0% in 2018.

SwedenA dynamic external sector, growing residential construction and healthy government consumption should keep the Swedish economy on a steady growth path this year. However, rising protectionism and disruptions to trade flows could hurt the country’s outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP rising 2.4% in 2017, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, they see growth decelerating to 2.2%. 

IcelandEconomic growth should remain robust this year, though if overheating risks materialize they could quickly derail the country’s stellar economic performance. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 4.4% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s projection, and 2.7% in 2018.

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