ASEAN Economic Outlook
ASEAN should see stronger GDP growth in 2024 compared to 2023 as the global electronics sector recovers, tourist inflows remain strong and inflation and interest rates decline. That said, muted activity in China will cap the expansion. Weaker-for-longer external demand and regional geopolitical instability are downside risks.
ASEAN Inflation
ASEAN inflation rose to 2.5% in February (January: 2.2%) as food price pressures intensified across the region. Available data suggests this trend continued in March. Inflation should pick up further in the remainder of the year but average below 2023’s rate in 2024 as a whole on the delayed impact of monetary policy tightening. Shocks to food supply are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2010 to 2022.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 2.9 | - | - | - | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.1 | -3.1 | 6.5 | 5.6 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 3.5 | 5.2 | 4.8 | - | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.0 | -6.5 | -4.6 | -2.7 | - |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 4,959 | 4,674 | 5,084 | 5,431 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.5 | -3.8 | 3.9 | 5.6 | - |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 5.4 | - | - | - | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 48.3 | 58.3 | 61.0 | - | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | - | - |
| CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) | 4.13 | 2.79 | 2.69 | 4.55 | - |
| Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) | 7,282 | 7,542 | 7,618 | 8,393 | 8,493 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.1 | - | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,466 | 1,431 | 1,773 | - | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,332 | 1,213 | 1,549 | - | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 919 | 1,077 | 1,167 | - | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 82.2 | 91.6 | 90.3 | 84.1 | - |