Turkey Industry


Industrial production contracts for the first time in eight months

In August, industrial production inched down a calendar-adjusted 0.1% over the same month last year, marking the first contraction in industrial output since December 2012. The reading contrasted both the 4.7% rise tallied in the previous month and the 4.1% expansion that markets had expected. The decline reflects a sharp deceleration in manufacturing output as well as a steep fall in mining and quarrying. The electricity, gas and steam category, however, improved over the previous month.

A month-on-month comparison corroborates the deterioration suggested by the annual figures; industrial production declined a seasonally and calendar-adjusted 4.0% in August - the lowest print since January 2011 - contrasting the 0.7% increase observed in July. Despite the annual drop, annual average growth in industrial production was steady at July's 2.3%.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect industrial production to expand 3.8% in 2013, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's forecast. Next year, the panel expects that industrial output will increase 4.6%, which is down 0.4 percentage points over the previous month's estimate.

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Turkey Industry Chart

Turkey Industry August 2013

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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