Turkey GDP


Economic growth picks up in Q1

In the first quarter, GDP rose 3.0% over the same quarter last year. The reading represents an acceleration compared to the 1.4% expansion recorded in the last quarter of 2012 and marks, in fact, the fastest growth rate recorded in one year. In addition, the figure overshot market expectations, which had anticipated a 2.5% rise.

The improvement observed in the first quarter was caused by a better performance in domestic demand, whereas the external sector deteriorated. Private consumption expanded 3.0% over the same period last year (Q4 2012: -0.8% year-on-year), while government spending increased a healthy 7.3% (Q4: +7.1% yoy). Gross fixed investment rose a mild 0.2%, which marks, nevertheless, an improvement over the 3.8% drop seen in the previous three-month period.

Exports of goods and services rose 3.4%, which was well below the 15.0% increase tallied in the previous quarter, while imports grew 3.2% in Q1, mirroring the result seen in Q4. As a result, the net contribution from the external sector to overall growth swung from plus 2.9 percentage points in the fourth quarter to minus 0.1 percentage points in the first.

A quarter-on-quarter analysis corroborates the acceleration suggested by annual figures, as GDP expanded 1.6% over the previous quarter in seasonally and calendar-day adjusted terms, up from the paltry 0.1% rise recorded in Q4.

The government expects the economy to expand 4.0% this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists see the economy growing 4.0% this year, which is unchanged from last month. For 2014, the panel expects GDP to expand 4.8%.

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Turkey GDP Chart

Turkey GDP Q1 2013

Note: Year-on-year variation of GDP in %.
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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