Spain GDP


Economic activity records mildest drop since Q1 2011

In the second quarter, GDP contracted 0.1% over the previous three-month period in seasonally adjusted terms, according to more complete data released by the National Statistics Office (INE) on 29 August. The contraction matched the advance estimate published on 30 July and represents an improvement compared to the 0.4% decline recorded in the first quarter. The print marks the softest drop since Q1 2011.

The milder contraction in Q2 was mainly caused by a strong increase in government spending (Q1: 0.0% quarter-on-quarter; Q2: +0.9% qoq) and a softer decline in private consumption (Q1: -0.5% qoq; Q2: -0.1% qoq). However, gross fixed investment deteriorated, falling 2.1% over the previous quarter (Q1: -1.5% qoq).

Meanwhile, the external sector's net contribution to overall growth swung from a 0.6 percentage-point detraction in the first quarter to a 2.0 percentage-point contribution in the second quarter. Exports of goods and services increased
6.0% (Q1: -3.8% qoq), while imports expanded 5.9% (Q1: -4.5% qoq), marking the highest reading since Q3 2009.

On an annual basis, GDP fell 1.6% over the same quarter last year, an improvement over the 2.0% decline recorded in the first quarter.

The government expects the economy to contract 1.3% this year and to grow 0.5% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists are more pessimistic and expect GDP to contract 1.6% in 2013, which is unchanged from last month's forecast. In 2014, panellists expect the economy to expand 0.4%.

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Spain GDP Chart

Spain GDP Q2 2013

Note: Quarter-on-quarter and annual variation of seasonally adjusted gross domestic product.
Source: National Statistical Institute (INE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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