Russia Trade Balance


Export growth moderates in October

In October, exports added 14.9% over the same month last year to USD 35.0 billion. The reading marked a moderation compared to the 18.1% expansion registered in September. Despite the recovery, exports are still far from pre-crisis levels, with the 3-month sum in exports standing at USD 100.7 billion in October, well below the peak of USD 136.8 billion reached in August 2008. Meanwhile, imports grew 27.0% year-on-year in October, which was down from the 33.7% increase recorded in September. As import growth slowed more than export growth, the trade balance surplus widened from USD 10.4 billion in September to USD billion 10.5. The export sector is likely to be adversely affected by the government's decision to extend the ban on grain exports until July next year. Furthermore, oil revenues are unlikely to compensate fully for the loss of agricultural exports. The prices for Ural oil, Russia's key export commodity, have risen only moderately over the last months, given that the outlook for the global recovery remains clouded. In the last week of November, the price for Ural oil reached USD 82.23 per barrel, which was 8.7% higher than a year ago.

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