Poland GDP


Poland's economy grows at the slowest pace in four years

In the first quarter, GDP increased 0.5% over the same quarter last year, which came in below the 0.7% expansion recorded in the fourth quarter but was in line with market expectations. In fact, the reading represented the slowest pace of economic growth observed since the first quarter of 2009. Compared to the previous quarter, economic growth increased a seasonally adjusted 0.1% (Q4 2012: 0.0% quarter-on-quarter).

The deceleration at the outset of this year was mainly driven by a deterioration in net exports. Exports expanded 1.3% in the first quarter (Q4: +3.2% year-on-year), whereas imports declined 1.7% (Q4: -2.4% yoy). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth fell from 2.4 percentage points in the fourth quarter to 1.4 percentage points in the first.

On the domestic side, private consumption growth was flat in Q1 (Q4: -0.2% yoy), while government consumption fell 0.5% in the first quarter (Q4: -0.6% yoy). In addition, fixed investment contracted for the third consecutive quarter and decreased 2.0% (Q4: -4.1% yoy).

The Central Bank expects GDP to expand 1.3% in 2013, before accelerating to 2.6% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists expect that the economy will expand 1.4% in 2013, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month's forecast. For 2014, panellists expect the economy to grow 2.7%.


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Poland GDP Chart

Poland GDP Q1 2013

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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