China Trade Balance


Trade surplus narrows as imports rise on resilient domestic demand

In November, exports added 34.9% over the same month last year to reach USD 153.3 billion. The figure came in well above the 22.8% expansion observed in October as well as market expectations, which had exports growing 23.6%. The better-than-expected reading was fanned by strong shipments to the European Union, United States and Japan. Meanwhile, imports grew above consensus forecasts, increasing 37.9% over November 2009 (October: +25.4% year-on-year) to reach USD 130.4 billion, driven by strong shipments from the European Union, United States and Brazil. Stronger imports, buttressed by buoyant domestic demand, reduced the trade surplus from USD 27.1 billion in October to USD 22.9 billion in November. With the November reading, exports remain above pre-crisis levels for the fifth consecutive month, as the moving 3-month sum reached USD 434.3 billion, surpassing the pre-crisis peak of USD 408.9 billion recorded in September 2008, and well above the March trough of USD 245.6 billion. Consensus Forecast panellists expect exports to grow 25.9% this year and 15.3% in 2011.

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