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Latest Reports

  • August 31, 2016

    Uncertainty reigns supreme

    Two months have passed since the Brexit vote and, although the dust is gradually settling, the external environment remains challenging. The global economy slowed in the second quarter and financial markets had another rocky month in June when the UK voted to leave the EU. Risky assets, such as equities and commodities, declined sharply, before swiftly recovering as fears of imminent spillovers to the global economy receded. Following the vote, market expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy stance around the world increased, which, in turn, spurred risk appetite to rise even higher: equities around the globe have reached new record highs and commodities prices, led mainly by crude oil, have returned to the gradual recovery path which was briefly interrupted by the aftermath of the Brexit vote.

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  • August 10, 2016

    Debriefing the impact of Brexit on Latin America

    The impact of the Brexit vote on global markets and the world’s economy has prompted analysts and market participants to assess both the nature of the shock and the cyclical context in which it occurred. The result: the Brexit vote was an idiosyncratic UK shock that came at a juncture in which the global economy has failed to deliver strength. The knock-on effects to economic growth in the UK began immediately after the vote, at the outset of the second half of the year. While the overall drag from this shock on the global economy is expected to be moderate, this depends on a number of factors that are still evolving.

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  • August 10, 2016

    Brexit poses limited risks to Central America and the Caribbean

    Fear and uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom’s decision to separate from the European Union adversely affected economic sentiment on a global scale in the days following the referendum. However, with the dust now settled, the impact of Brexit on the economy of the Central American and the Caribbean region is expected to be limited as the region’s links with the UK in key areas such as trade, investment and remittances are weak.

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  • August 25, 2016

    ASEAN economy picks up pace in Q2

    A comprehensive set of data suggests that growth in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) accelerated slightly in the second quarter of 2016. GDP expanded 4.7% annually in Q2, which was a notch above Q1’s 4.6% expansion and a larger increase than the preliminary estimate of 4.5% growth. The pickup largely reflected stronger growth in Indonesia, the region’s largest economy, which expanded at the fastest pace since Q4 2013 as government stimulus began to take effect. In addition, private consumption grew at the fastest pace since Q4 2014, boosted by seasonal factors.

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  • August 24, 2016

    Economic dynamics in ESA remain strong in Q2 on policy support 

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  • August 31, 2016

    Recovery holds ground in H1 but clouds loom  

    The Eurozone’s recovery lost traction in the second quarter of the year as GDP expanded at the slowest pace seen in two years. Growth came in at 0.3% over the previous quarter, half of the first quarter’s robust 0.6% increase. However, the result was likely influenced by transitory factors—such as the early timing of Easter and a mild winter—which had boosted the first quarter’s result. Overall, the big picture remains bright and GDP in H1 increased a healthy 0.4%, supported by loose monetary policy and an improving labor market.

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  • August 3, 2016

    Brexit spillovers threaten CEE’s economic prospects

    Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is the emerging market that is most exposed to the fallout from Brexit. All countries in the region are members of the European Union and CEE has strong links to the UK through migration. While the UK only receives 4.7% of the region’s exports, the expected slowdown in the Eurozone will weigh on growth, as over half of the region’s exports are destined for the EU. Moreover, the UK is the third largest contributor to the EU’s budget, while most of the CEE economies receive more than they contribute and any changes in EU funding in the long-run could hamper investment in the region.

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  • August 3, 2016

    Economic effects will be muted in SEE

    The direct impact of the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union is expected to be muted in South-Eastern Europe (SEE) as economic links with the UK in the areas of trade, investment and remittances are relatively weak. That said, the region could be negatively affected if the Euro area slows down due to its large trade exposure. The main view held by analysts is that the referendum outcome is a net negative for the region from a market sentiment and economic standpoint, but its costs will not be disastrous.

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  • August 3, 2016

    Digesting the impact of Brexit on the CIS

    The majority of analysts foresee that the Brexit result will only have a mild impact on the Commonwealth’s real economy. The transmission mechanisms to CIS countries will principally be through an economic slowdown in Europe and a drop in commodities prices, particularly in oil, gas and industrial metals, which are the region’s main commodities exports. In our most recent Major Economies survey, the Consensus view among analysts is that the recovery in the Eurozone will continue as the brunt of the impact of Brexit is not expected to be felt this year. However, as negotiations will likely be dragged out since European rules set a two-year period for negotiating an exit, analysts see that a worsening in economic sentiment in the common-currency bloc could potentially weigh on growth in 2017 and beyond. Meanwhile, a gradual recovery in commodities prices this year and next is also expected by our analysts, despite the recent Brexit-related hiccups. Nonetheless, prices of raw materials—principally crude oil and gas prices—will be affected if economic activity in Europe slows as a result of a chaotic Brexit.

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  • August 3, 2016

    Brexit impact on MENA will be limited 

    While stock markets in the region declined markedly in the aftermath of the Brexit vote, they recovered strongly in July. The impact of the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union is expected to be relatively limited in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) yet shockwaves will reverberate mainly via secondary channels.

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  • August 24, 2016

    Low commodity prices and domestic vulnerabilities weigh on regional growth in Q2

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