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We poll the world's leading economists and compile over 1,600 individual macroeconomic forecasts to provide our clients with reliable data and analysis for 95 countries. Our reports feature the Consensus Forecast (mean average), along with best- and worst-case scenarios.

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Latest Reports

  • February 4, 2015

    Global growth broadly stable in Q4

    Growth moderated slightly from 2.9% in Q2 to 2.8% in Q3, according to more complete data. As a result, the world economy expanded at the softest pace since Q2 2013. While growth in most developed economies stabilized in Q3, economic activity in emerging markets moderated slightly. More recent data suggest that growth dynamics in Q4 kept the same pace as in the previous quarter.

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  • February 18, 2015

    Sluggish economic growth in Latin America reflects recession in Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela

    Latin America continued to face important challenges at the outset of 2015 with several factors working against the economy, among which are persistently low commodity prices, weak currencies and tepid growth. Economic growth began to pick up some pace in the region in Q3 2014 following a sharp deceleration in Q2. However, economic activity is expected to have grown at a tepid rhythm in Q4 2014 and is foreseen continuing in the same vein through the first half of 2015. This sluggish economic growth is mainly due to the recession looming over Brazil that is expected to continue until Q2 2015. The outright recession Argentina is experiencing is also projected to continue until the first half of 2015, while Venezuela’s total output is expected to continue contracting until the first quarter of 2016. Conversely, economic activity in Chile, Colombia and Mexico is projected to continue growing, albeit moderately, in the coming quarters.

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  • February 18, 2015

    Economic growth moderates in 2014 on less favorable external conditions

    Regional GDP growth moderated in the second half of 2014 following healthy growth in the first half as the rate of expansion in most of the economies in Central America and the Caribbean slowed. Regional GDP is expected to have expanded 3.2% in 2014, which is a slight moderation from the 3.3% expansion registered in 2013. The evolution reflected that global conditions are less favorable and that commodity prices have been lower since mid-2014. In addition, a tighter monetary policy in the United States made external financing less accessible and capital inflows more limited.

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  • February 25, 2015

    Falling commodity prices continue to drive growth

    According to a more complete set of data, in Q4 GDP expanded 6.3% annually in the ex-Japan Asia region (previously expected: +6.0% year-on-year), which was slightly down from the 6.4% increase tallied in Q3. The upward revision in the quarterly data reflected the modification in India of the national account series and methodology. Although the region’s economic data for January and February have been highly disrupted by the Lunar New Year, recent indicators suggest that growth will broadly maintain Q4 2014’s pace in Q1 2015.

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  • February 4, 2015

    ECB unveils unprecedented QE program

    On 22 January, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that it would expand its current asset purchase program, which covers asset-backed securities (ABS) and covered bonds, to include government bonds in March 2015. In total, the ECB will purchase EUR 60 billion in assets per month, which implies buying an additional EUR 50 billion in assets each month. The move represented a significant achievement for the ECB, and in particular for ECB President Mario Draghi, as the composition of the sovereign bond purchase program exceeded market expectations. The decision rested on authorities’ commitment to continue with the program until inflation moves toward the ECB target of “close to, but below 2%”.  The channel that is most likely to boost inflation is the exchange rate, which fell to an 11-year low in the wake of the announcement. It remains to be seen, however, whether the impact the program is expected to have on the real economy will materialize. 

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  • February 11, 2015

    Economic woes in Russia and Ukraine curtail growth in the region

    The geopolitical crisis between Ukraine and Russia continues to take a toll on economic growth in the region. Data show that economic activity in Eastern Europe is weakening rapidly. Regional GDP has decelerated uninterruptedly since a 2.2% increase was recorded in the first quarter of 2014 and it is expected to have expanded 1.0% in the final quarter of 2014. As a result of the worsening economic conditions in Russia and Ukraine, the regional economy is expected to contract in the first quarter of 2015. If Q1 2015’s result is in line with the projection, it will represent the first drop in output since Q4 2009. 

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