Venezuela - Inflation
Long-delayed data show inflation soaring to above 60%
Consumer prices in August jumped 3.93% over the previous month, which was below the 4.14% rise tallied in July and virtually in line with the 3.90% increase that LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists had expected. August’s increase mainly reflected higher prices for utilities as well as for food and non-alcoholic drinks. Annual inflation rose from July’s 62.0% to 63.4% in August, which marks the highest inflation rate since 1997. While the Central Bank published inflation data for the first time since June, it failed to deliver data for core inflation or for the scarcity index.
Since November of last year, the Central Bank of Venezuela—once believed to be one of the most reliable institutions in the country—has routinely delayed releases on economic data, including statistics for inflation, the scarcity index, estimates for GDP, balance of payments and external debt. In addition, some relevant fiscal data (such as consolidated public sector figures) have been omitted since 2011. According to the Central Bank’s regulations, inflation data should be published within the first 10 days of each month.
This situation has led many analysts to suspect that the government has increased its pressure on the Central Bank, which would threaten the Bank’s independence and objectivity. Analysts’ suspicions have been partially substantiated by the unusual nature of the Central Bank’s press releases, which contain a strong ideological and pro-government tone rather than that of a technical analysis.
Per its 2014 budget, the Venezuelan government expects inflation to end the year at between 26.0% and 28.0%. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists, however, expect inflation to reach 66.3% by the end of this year, which is up 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2015, the panel sees inflation at 56.4%.
Venezuela - Inflation Data
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||27.1||28.2||26.1||21.1||40.6|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Venezuela Inflation Chart
Source: Venezuela Central Bank and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||8.8||0.0 %||Oct 23|
|Exchange Rate||6.30||0.0 %||Oct 30|
|Stock Market||2,919||2.83 %||Oct 30|
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October 21, 2014
Finance Minister Rodolfo Marco Torres presented the draft budget for 2015 to the unicameral National Assembly on 21 October.
October 8, 2014
The bolivar that is traded in the parallel market continued on a downward spiral in recent weeks due to a severe shortage of U.S. dollars and Venezuelans’ appetite for the greenback as they attempt to protect themselves from soaring inflation.
October 8, 2014
Annual car sales tumbled 74.9% over the same month last year and reached 1,917 units in September, according to figures from the Venezuelan Automotive Chamber (CAVENEZ, Camara Automotriz de Venezuela).
October 1, 2014
In September, the average price of Venezuela’s mix of crude oil fell 2.7% over the previous month to USD 89.3 per barrel, which represented the lowest price since February 2011.
September 9, 2014
Consumer prices in August jumped 3.93% over the previous month, which was below the 4.14% rise tallied in July and virtually in line with the 3.90% increase that LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists had expected.