Venezuela - Inflation
Inflation stays at above 60% in November
Consumer prices in November rose 4.66% over the previous month, which was below the 5.02% rise tallied in October. November’s increase mainly reflected higher prices for education as well as for food and non-alcoholic drinks. Annual inflation eased slightly from October’s 63.9% to 63.6% in November, which marked the lowest inflation rate in three months. While the Central Bank published inflation figures for the first time since September, it failed once again to deliver data for core inflation and the scarcity index.
Since November of 2013, the Central Bank of Venezuela—once believed to be one of the most reliable institutions in the country—has routinely delayed releases on economic data. According to the Central Bank’s regulations, inflation data should be published within the first 10 days of each month.
This situation has led many analysts to suspect that the government has increased its pressure on the Central Bank, which would threaten the Bank’s independence and objectivity. Analysts’ suspicions have been partially substantiated by the unusual nature of the Central Bank’s press releases, which contain a strong ideological and pro-government tone rather than that of a technical analysis.
Per its 2014 budget, the Venezuelan government expects inflation to range between 25.0% and 30.0% in 2015. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists, however, expect inflation to reach 66.3% by the end 2014, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2015, the panel sees inflation at 79.6%.
Venezuela - Inflation Data
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||27.1||28.2||26.1||21.1||40.6|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Venezuela Inflation Chart
Source: Venezuela Central Bank and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||8.80||0.0 %||Jan 23|
|Exchange Rate||6.30||0.0 %||Jan 22|
|Stock Market||3,946||0.0 %||Jan 23|
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January 19, 2015
The bolivar traded in the parallel market continued to tumble in recent weeks due to the ongoing shortage of U.S. dollars, a tough economic situation and strong purchases of the greenback by Venezuelans in an attempt to protect themselves from soaring inflation. On 13 January, the non-official exchange rate was 173.8 VEF per USD.
January 15, 2015
In December, the average price of Venezuela’s mix of crude oil fell a sharp 23.0% over the previous month, reaching USD 54.0 per barrel, which was the lowest price that had been recorded since May 2009.
January 13, 2015
Annual car sales jumped 78.2% over the same month the previous year and reached 5,274 units in December, according to figures from the Venezuelan Automotive Chamber (CAVENEZ, Camara Automotriz de Venezuela).
December 30, 2014
GDP contracted 2.3% in Q3, which followed the 4.9% drop tallied in Q2 and the 4.8% decline observed in Q1, according to economic figures released by the Central Bank on 30 December.
December 30, 2014
Consumer prices in November rose 4.66% over the previous month, which was below the 5.02% rise tallied in October.