Venezuela - Inflation
Inflation ends 2014 at highest rate since 1996
Consumer prices in December rose 5.29% over the previous month, which was above the 4.66% rise tallied in November. December’s increase mainly reflected higher prices for alcoholic drinks and tobacco, restaurants and hotels, as well as for food and non-alcoholic drinks.
Annual inflation ended 2014 at 68.5% in December (2013: 40.6%). The figure marked the highest inflation rate since 1996. The Central Bank did not publish figures for core inflation or the scarcity index.
Since November of 2013, the Central Bank of Venezuela—once believed to be one of the most reliable institutions in the country—has routinely delayed releases on economic data. According to the Central Bank’s regulations, inflation data should be published within the first 10 days of each month. This situation has led many analysts to suspect that the government has increased its pressure on the Central Bank, which would threaten the Bank’s independence and objectivity. Analysts’ suspicions have been partially substantiated by the unusual nature of the Central Bank’s press releases, which contain a strong ideological and pro-government tone rather than that of a technical analysis.
Per its 2015 budget, the Venezuelan government expects inflation to range between 25.0% and 30.0% in 2015. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists, however, expect inflation to reach 66.3% by the end 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2016, the panel sees inflation at 79.6%.
Venezuela - Inflation Data
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||27.1||28.2||26.1||21.1||40.6|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Venezuela Inflation Chart
Source: Venezuela Central Bank and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||8.80||0.0 %||Feb 23|
|Exchange Rate||6.30||0.0 %||Feb 26|
|Stock Market||3,532||-1.30 %||Feb 26|
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February 16, 2015
The Venezuelan government launched an overhaul of the exchange rate system and introduced a new exchange rate mechanism on 12 February.
February 13, 2015
Consumer prices in December rose 5.29% over the previous month, which was above the 4.66% rise tallied in November.
February 11, 2015
Annual car sales fell 5.4% over the same month the previous year and totaling 683 units in January, according to figures from the Venezuelan Automotive Chamber (CAVENEZ, Camara Automotriz de Venezuela).
February 10, 2015
In January, the average price of Venezuela’s mix of crude oil fell a sharp 25.4% over the previous month, reaching USD 40.3 per barrel, which was the lowest price that had been recorded since February 2009.
January 19, 2015
The bolivar traded in the parallel market continued to tumble in recent weeks due to the ongoing shortage of U.S. dollars, a tough economic situation and strong purchases of the greenback by Venezuelans in an attempt to protect themselves from soaring inflation. On 13 January, the non-official exchange rate was 173.8 VEF per USD.