Economic Growth in Canada
Canada experienced stable but moderate GDP growth from 2013 to 2022. The economy benefited from brisk population growth, close ties to a robust U.S. economy, strong natural resource sectors and improved trade ties with Asian and European economies thanks to participation in new free trade deals. Post-pandemic recovery in 2021-2022 was supported by fiscal stimulus and rebounding global demand.
The Canadian economy recorded an average growth rate of 1.8% in the decade to 2022, in line with the 1.8% average for Major Economies. In 2022, the real GDP growth was 3.4%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Canada GDP Chart
Canada GDP Data
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.7 | 1.9 | -5.0 | 5.3 | 3.8 |
GDP (USD bn) | 1,725 | 1,743 | 1,656 | 2,008 | 2,161 |
GDP (CAD bn) | 2,236 | 2,314 | 2,221 | 2,517 | 2,813 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.4 | 3.5 | -4.0 | 13.4 | 11.8 |
Economic activity expands at quickest pace since May in November
GDP grew 0.2% month-on-month in seasonally adjusted terms in November (October: 0.0% mom). November's figure marked the best reading since May and was above market expectations. On an annual basis, GDP rose at a quicker rate of 1.1% in November (October: +0.9% yoy).
Strong manufacturing growth was the key driver of the month-on-month reading. Services activity saw slower growth, partly due to strikes in the education sector.
A flash estimate put GDP growth at 0.3% in December, thanks to increases in manufacturing, real estate, and mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction. This would translate into 1.2% quarter-on-quarter annualized growth in Q4 as a whole.
On the Q4 outturn, Desjardins’ Randall Bartlett said: “We’ve seen massively outsized revisions to monthly real GDP in the past two quarters, so one would be wise not to assume that this data won’t be substantially revised a month from now. Indeed, we think the risks to our current tracking are to the downside.” On the monetary policy implications if the strong Q4 data is confirmed, TD Economics’ Marc Ercolao said: “The Canadian economy looks to be finishing the year on a stronger note than most expected. Markets are still focused on the timing of rate cuts, but a heating up of the Canadian economy may push expectations for a first cut further down the line.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Canadian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 38 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Canadian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Canadian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Canadian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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