Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
GDP growth is expected to improve in 2024 from 2023. The region’s oil sector should come close to stabilization after shrinking last year, while the non-oil sector should continue to be supported by strong government investment. The escalation of the Gaza war and the prolongation of voluntary OPEC+ quota cuts into H2 are the main downside risks.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
Inflation will continue to vary sharply across the region this year, being low in the Gulf, Israel and Jordan, moderate in most of North Africa, and high in Egypt, Lebanon, Iran and Yemen. Nonetheless, compared to 2023, inflation should soften in most countries in the region. Upside risks include currency devaluations and food-price spikes.
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP per capita (USD) | 7,902 | 7,007 | 8,236 | - | - |
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.6 | -3.4 | 4.7 | - | - |
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 3.7 | - | - | - | - |
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 1.4 | -7.1 | - | - | - |
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -1.9 | -4.9 | 4.0 | 8.3 | - |
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.4 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 6.4 | - |
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.7 | -9.8 | -3.0 | - | - |
Public Debt (% of GDP) | 44.1 | 56.8 | 52.5 | - | - |
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 3.5 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 8.6 | - |
CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) | 3.17 | 2.13 | 2.09 | 5.81 | - |
Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) | 102 | 107 | 104 | 112 | 16 |
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.6 | -0.9 | 4.7 | - | - |
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,088 | 838 | 1,173 | - | - |
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 869 | 767 | 889 | - | - |
International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,053 | 1,034 | 1,116 | 1,147 | - |
External Debt (% of GDP) | 30.3 | 34.4 | 32.8 | - | - |