Venezuela Inflation


Inflation falls to five-year low

In October, the consumer price index for the Caracas Metropolitan Region rose 1.72% over the previous month, which was slightly below the 1.92% increase tallied in September. The print undershot Consensus Forecast panellists' expectations that had prices rising 2.20%. The monthly price increase mainly reflected higher prices for education as well as for food and non-alcoholic beverages. Despite the monthly increase, annual headline inflation fell from 19.1% in September to 18.5% in October, which represents the lowest reading observed since October 2007. Meanwhile, the core inflation index, which excludes volatile items such as fresh food, oil and other goods subject to government price controls, rose 1.41% over the previous month, down from the 1.52% increase tallied in September. As a result, annual core inflation fell from 21.7% in September to 20.8% in October. According to the 2012 budget, the Venezuelan government expects inflation to end the year between 20% and 22%. Officials envisage an inflation scenario of between 12% and 15% in 2013.

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Venezuela Inflation Chart

Venezuela Inflation October 2012

Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Venezuela Central Bank.

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